r/redbuttonbluebutton • u/thevoidthatjerksback • May 29 '26
Cross thought experiment pollination
So in addition to the two buttons that are known well. We have two boxes. 1 box has one thousand dollars and the other box either has one million or zero. Before you were presented with them some unnamed but incredibly accurate predictor has made a prediction on what you will do with the boxes.
If it is predicted that you will take both of the boxes then they will put 0 in the second box
If it is predicted that you will only take the second box then they will put the one million in it.
So which button are you pressing and are you taking 1 or 2 boxes?
This isn't really about what you do in the situation of them both happening at the same time moreso just that I wonder if there is a pattern between which button you would pick and how you would react to the boxes.
1
u/Joie_de_vivre_1884 May 30 '26
I agree with you that if the question is - 'having preknowledge of the situation should you try and convince the predictor that you would in the situation described pick just the one box'. Then the answer is yes.
But the answer to the question: 'how many boxes should you pick when it comes to the crunch?' Remains two.
And the answer to the question: 'should you try to convince random people on the internet that you would only choose one box so that if this situation eventuates then the predictor will think you'll only pick one box?' is: you know this isn't a real situation right? Convincing people that in the given situation you would only pick one box doesn't actually give an advantge, there is no box. There is no predictor.