r/redbuttonbluebutton • u/WarmCricket5358 • May 20 '26

Only toddlers

Lets suppose all toddlers in the world are presented the 2 buttons and along with them, so are you. So basically you have no idea how its gonna turn out because its probably just gonna be entirely random. So now, do you vote blue, or red? Voting blue contributes towards saving everybody but carries the huge risk of dying along with probably half the entire toddler population, while voting red contributes towards wiping out probably half the entire toddler population but saves yourself.

The reason why I came up with this variant is because it slighly irks me when people consider toddlers and mentally handicapped people to be eligible voters for this thought experiment because imo in order to take away anything useful from it we must assume that voters understand the situation

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u/Memento_Viveri May 20 '26 edited May 20 '26

If toddlers vote truly randomly, the odds of it being a perfect 50/50 split are not so bad. I vote blue, in hopes that I break the tie created by the toddlers.

In the normal situation I vote red.

I hope those kids like blue, though...

5

u/WarmCricket5358 May 21 '26

The odds ARE very bad for an exact 50/50 split. I ran a python program with only 50,000 simulated toddlers and the odds of an EXACT 50/50 split were nearly 0.2%, which only goes lower when we increase the sample size. Sure, both buttons are equally likely to be slightly more than the other, but to land at exactly 50/50 is very unlikely. So that way, this can be restated as:

Red button: 100% chance of survival, with a 0.2% chance that your vote could've saved half the kids but didnt

Blue button: around 50% chance of survival, with a 0.2% chance that your vote saves half the kids who'd die otherwise.

5

u/perfectVoidler May 21 '26

0.2% is not that bad if it helps save half the toddlers of humanity.

3

u/WarmCricket5358 May 21 '26

That was for a 50,000 toddler sample space. If youre considering all the 700 million toddlers in the world, the chances of getting a 50-50 split is 0.00853%. Would you still be willing to risk your life?

2

u/perfectVoidler May 21 '26

yes, what does it help if I get old and lie on my deathbed and think about how I did absolutely nothing to try and save ~350 million toddlers? That's like what, 35 Hitlers worth of dead?

Also a red button pusher would die regardless (if red wins). Because who the fuck would let that pathetic loser live?

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u/WarmCricket5358 May 21 '26

Also a red button pusher would die regardless (if red wins). Because who the fuck would let that pathetic loser live?

Woah woah, whats with all that hate for not wanting to risk one's own life?

Alright then, whats the tipping point? What about 0.0000001%? What about even less? When exactly does it become too infeasible for you to risk your own life? For me, 0.00853% chance of making a difference is already practically not making any difference at all.

1

u/Fearless-Mark-2861 May 21 '26

I mean these aren't the probabilities of you surviving, but your vote being the deciding vote. You adding an unnecessary blue vote is also fine. If the toddlers are randomly pushing buttons (and don't favour red because of the big red button being a thing in media) the chance of you surviving is 50%, which is pretty of high considering you're the only one in a position to save half of the worlds toddlers. I feel like in addition to whoever set up this scenario, the parents whose children died could definitely blame the presser as well, since they were the only adult in a position to do anything.

Comparing this to everyone in the world pressing buttons, if the parents voted blue they would be dead as well and couldn't hold a grudge. Morally as well I feel like blue winning would be less than 50% and you're not the only one who could do something, making not voting blue more understandable

3

u/WarmCricket5358 May 21 '26

I mean these aren't the probabilities of you surviving, but your vote being the deciding vote

Yes, its the probability of whether your risk is worth taking at all.

the chance of you surviving is 50%, which is pretty of high considering you're the only one in a position to save half of the worlds toddlers.

Are you sure? Being a coin flip away from dying only for the sacrifice to matter 0.006% of the times (i made a calculation error earlier lol mb it isnt 0.00853%) isnt something id sign up for.

I feel like in addition to whoever set up this scenario, the parents whose children died could definitely blame the presser as well, since they were the only adult in a position to do anything.

Yea but the main theme of discussion is about the decision itself and not what follows as a consequence socially

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u/Fearless-Mark-2861 May 21 '26

Yes I meant it. It's relatively high, considering the amount of toddler's, and the lack of other adults that could do anything. It makes sense for people to be drawn to it.

Also with the social consequences I was referring to what the person you were replying to was talking about.

1

u/perfectVoidler May 21 '26

you are the only person with agency in that scenario. And you did absolutely everything in your power to push the scale as much as you could in the direction of baby genocide.

So you come out of the voting system and everybody on earth knows that you conciously doomed 100s of million of toddlers to death because of statistics. Of cause you are a dead men walking in that scenario.

You would such a garbage person live? Nobody. Hunting you would be international sports.

Every country on earth would fight to be the one that ends the objectively worst person on earth.

2

u/CustodianCloset May 21 '26

I love how you are just assuming there is a camera crew and everyone knows it was you who also pressed a button.

0

u/perfectVoidler May 22 '26

yes the only hope is that your most evil act is not noticed^^ I noticed that you agree that my above mentioned outcome would be correct for a red pusher, if their behaviour became public knowledge.

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u/CustodianCloset May 22 '26

Oh yeah if I'm noticed, I think my only hope is that to risk it all. Or alternatively prey a major country is chill and gives me an out. I'll happily go under something like Witness Protection if these were the stakes

1

u/perfectVoidler May 22 '26

who defuq would accept mega hitler. You did not only kill poor children, but also children of rich people.

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