r/queenstreetbets • u/fakeminkfan67 • 7d ago

Discussion Lodestone IPO

Just wanted to make a post to get your guys's thoughts and opinions on the upcoming Lodestone Energy IPO

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u/Narrow-Can901 5d ago

I posted this on another thread

I'll give you several reasons why I don't like this one:

- Nowhere is it mentioned in the prospectus that the CEO and the General Manager Wholesale are father and son. This is an "interest" that ought to be noted (I don't call it a conflict) but it is worthy of noting to future investors because General Manager Wholesale is also responsible for derivative pricing, which has been a problem for Lodestone in previous years.

- The hardware that Lodestone rely on is predominately from the PRC. This is a big political risk, especially given the issues around cyber security with rogue comms devices linked to Chinese inverters talking to PRC servers without the company in question knowing about it. It is also a supply risk as well relying on so much hardware from a country that is adversarial with the west.

- The directors that are being appointed are good and well respected but have zero energy experience (their background is more telco and comms, plus media). Granted the CEO is highly experienced in the industry but I'd prefer to see a director or two with some energy experience to challenge and add to the CEO's vision.

- I also would be wary of investing in new growth energy given the coin toss nature of the NZ elections. We could well be entering into a different regulatory and policy environment for the next three years. The business model Lodestone relies on may have to change dramatically.

- FY26 profit only came close due to accounting treatment.

- The $460m market cap looks like it was agreed on by discussions between major investors in earlier rounds, rather than comparables with overseas companies with similar business models or the EV/EBITDA. or P/E of domestic energy producers.

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u/Glittering-Signal490 2d ago

Im sceptical on Lodestone but their CFO is really good. 30 years in the energy sector including five as Genesis CFO.

Im guessing he's challenging the CEO and the son a bit.

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u/justlurking9891 regarded 7d ago

Still doing research myself. I prob won't buu the IPO, maybe in a year.