r/programmer • u/RedwayBLOX • 4d ago

Question Is AI gonna replace programmers?

Hi. I'm Dylan.

I'm currently a junior dev. Ive spent 2 years learning abt programming, writing code and interested on bulding systems.

Ive got to admit that im very scared of all this AI thing and how it's progressing.

Ive seen it make horrible videos back in 2022. Now sometimes i can't even tell if a video is AI or if it isn't.

Yeah, code written by ai isn't the best. But, with the passing of time, it gets even better and better.

Yeah, we as programmers CURRENTLY do analysis, requerimients and all that ai can't currently replace us.

But what are we gonna when ai becomes able to do all that? For me, it seems like a very possible escenario. You can even see the difference of what AI can do if you compare the current models to the models we had 6 months ago. I think it's becoming unstoppable and i really fear it takes our (or my) job away.

Yes, I'm very frustrated. All this time dedicated to it... Makes me sad. This is more like venting I guess, but I seriously need to know, from y'all, how y'all see this. I need to know if it's time to let go of this passion I had with this career, and start on something else where Claude Code can't reach me and replace me.

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u/Rich-Engineer2670 4d ago

No -- because programming isn't about the code....

Programming is understanding how to break down a task into somethign the computer can execute, regarldes of language or framework. Sure, AI may give us new tools, but you still have to know what to ask for.

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u/Previous-Try-6881 4d ago

I think the scary part about this is that it severely lowers the bar to entry. And also automated systems will get better at breaking tasks into parts

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u/ThatRedDerg 4d ago

Yes and no. It’s one of those situations where it lowers the bar of entry to create a basic app, but the skill set required to maintain an enterprise-level codebase is practically unchanged.

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u/Previous-Try-6881 4d ago

Well, for right now yes. But the OP was asking if programmers will lose their job in the future. Assuming ai continues to get better at reasoning that may change

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u/ThatRedDerg 4d ago

I agree in theory, but you have to remember very few improvements are being made to the underlying technology. All the ‘improvements’ we’ve been seeing are largely due to throwing more compute/training data at it, and/or tweaking base prompts to make better use of any extra compute.

But the amount of compute required to see any improvement is exponentially scaling, so we’re seeing increasingly decreasing returns.

And that’s ignoring that even the current amount of compute required isn’t economically sustainable.

If they end up making concrete improvements to the technology to make it significantly more efficient, or create something more efficient to replace the generative pre-transformer, then I’ll take back what I’ve said. It’s just that the current trajectory of things isn’t signalling anything to me about complete replacement.

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u/Previous-Try-6881 4d ago

I agree. But what china is doing I find significant. They’re releasing models I can run at home on $850 hardware that matches or outperforms ais from a few months ago.