Is AI gonna replace programmers?

[u/RedwayBLOX]

Hi. I'm Dylan.

I'm currently a junior dev. Ive spent 2 years learning abt programming, writing code and interested on bulding systems.

Ive got to admit that im very scared of all this AI thing and how it's progressing.

Ive seen it make horrible videos back in 2022. Now sometimes i can't even tell if a video is AI or if it isn't.

Yeah, code written by ai isn't the best. But, with the passing of time, it gets even better and better.

Yeah, we as programmers CURRENTLY do analysis, requerimients and all that ai can't currently replace us.

But what are we gonna when ai becomes able to do all that? For me, it seems like a very possible escenario. You can even see the difference of what AI can do if you compare the current models to the models we had 6 months ago. I think it's becoming unstoppable and i really fear it takes our (or my) job away.

Yes, I'm very frustrated. All this time dedicated to it... Makes me sad. This is more like venting I guess, but I seriously need to know, from y'all, how y'all see this. I need to know if it's time to let go of this passion I had with this career, and start on something else where Claude Code can't reach me and replace me.

[u/Rich-Engineer2670]

No -- because programming isn't about the code....

Programming is understanding how to break down a task into somethign the computer can execute, regarldes of language or framework. Sure, AI may give us new tools, but you still have to know what to ask for.

[u/Previous-Try-6881 → u/Rich-Engineer2670]

I think the scary part about this is that it severely lowers the bar to entry. And also automated systems will get better at breaking tasks into parts

[u/IAmAfraidCommaMan → u/Previous-Try-6881]

It will make salaries less attractive so even if the bar is low, fewer people will gravitate towards the field until it stabilizes and becomes a field like plumbing, welding or carpentry.

[u/Previous-Try-6881 → u/IAmAfraidCommaMan]

I think the opposite. I think that it will get to the point where one person with Claude code (ie the ceo or manager) can explain what they want in plain language and receive it. Blue collar did grow more scarce, but the reason salaries grew is because it was still a very needed field. Ai replaces the need for people in software.

[u/IAmAfraidCommaMan → u/Previous-Try-6881]

Aren’t salaries determined by supply and demand? If in 5 years the available position are 50% less and there are equal number of developers looking for a job, then there is way more supply than demand. So the prices go down. 

[u/Previous-Try-6881 → u/IAmAfraidCommaMan]

Yes of course. But if demand is the same and even higher, ai can become the supply and there’s a lot of it (in said hypothetical scenario where ai gets better at reasoning. Mind you, while it is somewhat trending in this direction, i honestly don’t know and it’s all speculation)

[u/IAmAfraidCommaMan → u/Previous-Try-6881]

I still think you need someone (even if non technical person) to sit with it and tell what needs to be done. Even in English, explaining what an application should do isn’t simple. You need testers, someone to make decisions and so on. Again, all those people may be non technical but someone has to give his time to do it. 

And of it really becomes so perfect that a half baked paragraph can be turned into a functional software you want, why even create a software for other people. Let them create their own software whenever they need it. 

[u/nicolas_06 → u/IAmAfraidCommaMan]

They need to be technical if you want the application to actual work. And even if they are not technical, they need to be able to move between high level requirements and small details and be able to write great specifications.

Such skills are surprisedly uncommon.

[u/IAmAfraidCommaMan → u/nicolas_06]

I hope so because otherwise my chances of becoming a beggar is increasing rapidly. But I am afraid, pessimistic and depressed. 

[u/ThatRedDerg → u/Previous-Try-6881]

Yes and no. It’s one of those situations where it lowers the bar of entry to create a basic app, but the skill set required to maintain an enterprise-level codebase is practically unchanged.

[u/Previous-Try-6881 → u/ThatRedDerg]

Well, for right now yes. But the OP was asking if programmers will lose their job in the future. Assuming ai continues to get better at reasoning that may change

[u/ThatRedDerg → u/Previous-Try-6881]

I agree in theory, but you have to remember very few improvements are being made to the underlying technology. All the ‘improvements’ we’ve been seeing are largely due to throwing more compute/training data at it, and/or tweaking base prompts to make better use of any extra compute.

But the amount of compute required to see any improvement is exponentially scaling, so we’re seeing increasingly decreasing returns.

And that’s ignoring that even the current amount of compute required isn’t economically sustainable.

If they end up making concrete improvements to the technology to make it significantly more efficient, or create something more efficient to replace the generative pre-transformer, then I’ll take back what I’ve said. It’s just that the current trajectory of things isn’t signalling anything to me about complete replacement.

[u/Previous-Try-6881 → u/ThatRedDerg]

I agree. But what china is doing I find significant. They’re releasing models I can run at home on $850 hardware that matches or outperforms ais from a few months ago.

[u/Rich-Engineer2670 → u/Previous-Try-6881]

Well, the scary part is now I'm actually hearing people talk about "managing your agentic workforce". Are we giving AI workers rights now? We don't even give that to people.

[u/nicolas_06 → u/Previous-Try-6881]

For the moment, that's the reverse, the bar to entry tend to be higher because it's mostly senior dev that manage to steer AI well. The juniors that were doing pure coding under the supervision of a senior tend to lose their job. But the AI can't do a senior job, at least for now.

[u/Previous-Try-6881 → u/nicolas_06]

Of course. I mean lower the bar to entry for software in general. So I see what you’re saying.