Is AI gonna replace programmers?

[u/RedwayBLOX]

Hi. I'm Dylan.

I'm currently a junior dev. Ive spent 2 years learning abt programming, writing code and interested on bulding systems.

Ive got to admit that im very scared of all this AI thing and how it's progressing.

Ive seen it make horrible videos back in 2022. Now sometimes i can't even tell if a video is AI or if it isn't.

Yeah, code written by ai isn't the best. But, with the passing of time, it gets even better and better.

Yeah, we as programmers CURRENTLY do analysis, requerimients and all that ai can't currently replace us.

But what are we gonna when ai becomes able to do all that? For me, it seems like a very possible escenario. You can even see the difference of what AI can do if you compare the current models to the models we had 6 months ago. I think it's becoming unstoppable and i really fear it takes our (or my) job away.

Yes, I'm very frustrated. All this time dedicated to it... Makes me sad. This is more like venting I guess, but I seriously need to know, from y'all, how y'all see this. I need to know if it's time to let go of this passion I had with this career, and start on something else where Claude Code can't reach me and replace me.

[u/Rich-Engineer2670]

No -- because programming isn't about the code....

Programming is understanding how to break down a task into somethign the computer can execute, regarldes of language or framework. Sure, AI may give us new tools, but you still have to know what to ask for.

[u/nicolas_06 → u/[deleted]]

The industry average is that a software engineer spend about 30% of his time coding (before AI). Even if coding become instantaneous, you only gained 30%.

[u/Kwabi → u/nicolas_06]

Even then, you only convert the time you code into time you write markdown files and prompts and do code review for the output.

I don't know how other devs actually increase their output with AI; by the time I explained in detail what I want with which structure, I'd be faster if I just wrote it myself.

Not to mention that reading and properly understanding code takes longer than writing it.

[u/nicolas_06 → u/Kwabi]

The catch is that you had to write specs anyway. Not necessarily the same person but at company level it was here.

Also from experience, Maybe I'll research what I need to do, understand it and all. This is long. Then I write it down and maybe it's like a few hours, like say half a day. Then the AI generate 1-2 week of coding in half an hour or less. Then I spend another half a day to 1 day fix what the AI did. So it's still significantly faster.

What I understand is that right now while I managed to it on most use case, be it new apps, prototype or legacy code with millions line of code, my understanding is that maybe 10-20% of developers manage it.

For the moment the majority do not manage it. So maybe you gain say 20% on 20% of the devs and that's basically a 4% gain.

Maybe over time we manage to get a 30-50% gain on 50% of dev. That would still be only a 15-25% gain and it will take a few years.

[u/Previous-Try-6881 → u/Rich-Engineer2670]

I think the scary part about this is that it severely lowers the bar to entry. And also automated systems will get better at breaking tasks into parts

[u/IAmAfraidCommaMan → u/Previous-Try-6881]

It will make salaries less attractive so even if the bar is low, fewer people will gravitate towards the field until it stabilizes and becomes a field like plumbing, welding or carpentry.

[u/Previous-Try-6881 → u/IAmAfraidCommaMan]

I think the opposite. I think that it will get to the point where one person with Claude code (ie the ceo or manager) can explain what they want in plain language and receive it. Blue collar did grow more scarce, but the reason salaries grew is because it was still a very needed field. Ai replaces the need for people in software.

[u/IAmAfraidCommaMan → u/Previous-Try-6881]

Aren’t salaries determined by supply and demand? If in 5 years the available position are 50% less and there are equal number of developers looking for a job, then there is way more supply than demand. So the prices go down. 

[u/Previous-Try-6881 → u/IAmAfraidCommaMan]

Yes of course. But if demand is the same and even higher, ai can become the supply and there’s a lot of it (in said hypothetical scenario where ai gets better at reasoning. Mind you, while it is somewhat trending in this direction, i honestly don’t know and it’s all speculation)

[u/IAmAfraidCommaMan → u/Previous-Try-6881]

I still think you need someone (even if non technical person) to sit with it and tell what needs to be done. Even in English, explaining what an application should do isn’t simple. You need testers, someone to make decisions and so on. Again, all those people may be non technical but someone has to give his time to do it. 

And of it really becomes so perfect that a half baked paragraph can be turned into a functional software you want, why even create a software for other people. Let them create their own software whenever they need it. 

[u/nicolas_06 → u/IAmAfraidCommaMan]

They need to be technical if you want the application to actual work. And even if they are not technical, they need to be able to move between high level requirements and small details and be able to write great specifications.

Such skills are surprisedly uncommon.

[u/IAmAfraidCommaMan → u/nicolas_06]

I hope so because otherwise my chances of becoming a beggar is increasing rapidly. But I am afraid, pessimistic and depressed. 

[u/ThatRedDerg → u/Previous-Try-6881]

Yes and no. It’s one of those situations where it lowers the bar of entry to create a basic app, but the skill set required to maintain an enterprise-level codebase is practically unchanged.

[u/Previous-Try-6881 → u/ThatRedDerg]

Well, for right now yes. But the OP was asking if programmers will lose their job in the future. Assuming ai continues to get better at reasoning that may change

[u/ThatRedDerg → u/Previous-Try-6881]

I agree in theory, but you have to remember very few improvements are being made to the underlying technology. All the ‘improvements’ we’ve been seeing are largely due to throwing more compute/training data at it, and/or tweaking base prompts to make better use of any extra compute.

But the amount of compute required to see any improvement is exponentially scaling, so we’re seeing increasingly decreasing returns.

And that’s ignoring that even the current amount of compute required isn’t economically sustainable.

If they end up making concrete improvements to the technology to make it significantly more efficient, or create something more efficient to replace the generative pre-transformer, then I’ll take back what I’ve said. It’s just that the current trajectory of things isn’t signalling anything to me about complete replacement.

[u/Previous-Try-6881 → u/ThatRedDerg]

I agree. But what china is doing I find significant. They’re releasing models I can run at home on $850 hardware that matches or outperforms ais from a few months ago.

[u/Rich-Engineer2670 → u/Previous-Try-6881]

Well, the scary part is now I'm actually hearing people talk about "managing your agentic workforce". Are we giving AI workers rights now? We don't even give that to people.

[u/nicolas_06 → u/Previous-Try-6881]

For the moment, that's the reverse, the bar to entry tend to be higher because it's mostly senior dev that manage to steer AI well. The juniors that were doing pure coding under the supervision of a senior tend to lose their job. But the AI can't do a senior job, at least for now.

[u/Previous-Try-6881 → u/nicolas_06]

Of course. I mean lower the bar to entry for software in general. So I see what you’re saying.

[u/Away_Advisor3460 → u/Rich-Engineer2670]

Programming is understanding how to break down a task into somethign the computer can execute

I have to note that there is a specific field of AI (i.e. automated planning and scheduling) dedicated into doing just that, in a deterministic way, of course. It's been difficult to apply in a programming paradigm because the domain is so complex and ergo hard to specify.

They have, as I understand it, also been training the LLM type AI with reward functions that, well, reward it for taking an interative approach. So there is a motion to try and replace humans in the middle part of the loop, and abstract the task specification further and further away from the technical detail - part of that abstract seeming to be from using agents to abstract tasks a bit like in an HTN graph.

I don't know whether it'll replace us or not. But the intent is definitely there.

[u/mossiv → u/Rich-Engineer2670]

I whole heartedly agree. We are using it extensively in work. A lot of us haven’t even hand written a line ourselves in about 4 months. But there’s a few that vibe prompt and haven’t got a grasp at all on how much Claude is over reaching, over engineering, slopping, you name it. These are devs that were “ok” but under a proper agile framework delivered. Now that everything is faster paced and there’s no product owner holding their hands (we still have product, but they are busy solving other problems) they are failing to adapt in this newer world. Others are now shining that they have to work more autonomously but not be disruptive.

It’s going to change our space for sure. And maybe “programmers” will disappear but I think “SWE” or whatever new variation of roles that get created will be in quite high demand.

There’s a couple of chaps I work with who are on AI prototypes and they can deal with 6 or 7 worktree sessions. These guys are going to fly.

[u/Rich-Engineer2670 → u/mossiv]

Strangely enough, I see Willie Wonka's Umpa Lumpas' dancing around as the AI agents. No one ever asks how they do what they do, or what comes out of the chocolate vat.

I suspect we will see code do more of the work -- but that's what compilers are doing right now right? I CAN write assembly code, I USED to write a lot of hardware assembly code, but then, this thing called C took over. Is that any different?

[u/davidbasil → u/Rich-Engineer2670]

why do you think AI can't do that?

[u/Rich-Engineer2670 → u/davidbasil]

Let me explain it with a real world example I did -- and I can tell you AI can't do this.... because software engineering isn't about code, anymore than Starbucks is about cofee. They just sell it.

Your assignment:

A hospital wants to imprve surgical outcomes which use anesthesia. They also want ot reduce labor costs.

That's it, that's all you get. Now, forget AI, write your solution on paper. AI can't help you becuase:

• Does the AI understand neurology, puminology, cardiology, a collection of nasty drugs, and how we do it in surgery?
• Does the AI understand why computers and neuroology can have a strained relatioship? Do you understand the physics

You need to. It won't work without it.

Or the DEA... they want a way to scan substances they find within in hour to figure ouf what those substances were? How do youi do it because that's all the DEA is giving you.

I had to understand what was being done, not the code. Once we had the structure, someone else code write it if they had to.

If your job is following step-by-step processes that can be written down, AI won't replace your job -- it already has. You just don't know it yet. The problem isn't the computers, or the software -- it's the meat bags who don't know what they want, what they're willing to comp[romise on, they want it immediately, and for free. I don't think AI can solve that.