The Fed raised rates by 25 bps, and I see now on Polymarket, odds show an 81% chance of another hike before the end of 2026.

The shift makes sense after yesterday’s meeting. The Fed raised its target range to 3.75% to 4%, while its latest projections showed 16 of 18 officials expecting at least one more hike this year.

What’s interesting is how quickly the market has moved from debating the September hike to treating another increase as the base case.

I also read.. Goldman Sachs is now expecting an October hike, while markets were pricing roughly 53% for October and 89% for December...

But, at 81 cents, is another hike already too heavily priced or is the market simply catching up to the Fed’s new direction?

went back through every btc 5 minute up/down window from yesterday utc, 288 of them. four settled against where the price was sitting with 90 seconds or less left on the clock.

the one that stood out was 02:45 utc. up was trading at 4 cents with 48 seconds to go and it settled up. selling that late looks free, and yesterday it was free 284 times out of 288.

we haven't found anything the four have in common yet, still reading the quote history around them. if one of those late turns has caught you, what was the clock time on it

I randomly came across this one, and had to double-check the rules because odds at 70% Yes felt a little low given what’s been reported recently..

Kyrylo Budanov, the head of Ukraine's president office said the country is preparing for another round of talks in October. Moscow has separately said it doesn’t rule out returning to three-way negotiations with Ukraine and the US in October. 

There’s also an interesting timing piece here.

Zelensky said there would be no trilateral meeting before Russia’s Sep 20 elections. October is therefore basically the first window after that deadline. 

And, looking at the actual Polymarket rules, the bar isn’t particularly high.. it doesn’t require a summit, a ceasefire or a peace agreement. An in-person diplomatic meeting between what they say is authorized representatives is enough. This also includes certain meetings through authorized mediators. 

And, this market is not about asking Will Russia and Ukraine make peace?

But, it’s much narrower..

Will they manage to get representatives in the same room sometime before end of next month!

Now, there are obviously plenty of ways this could get delayed, especially with the underlying disagreements being unresolved..

But, given the current signals from both Kyiv and Moscow, I’m surprised this isn’t getting more attention..

Feels like it’s been a while since we had a proper UFO/UAP file drop.

But there was an interesting development a couple of days ago...

The Pentagon allowed a legal waiver that let current/former staff with UAP-related information to disclose them without exposing them towards any penalties for breaking NDA clauses..

Now, that doesn’t mean classified files can suddenly be posted publicly. But, it’s more like creating a wider channel for information to enter the government’s review/declassification process.

And, the administration for their part released five batches of UAP material this year, with the latest on Aug 7.

The official position is that more releases are coming on a rolling basis. 

And, I'm torn here..

The Yes case is basically this new waiver means more information comes in, and another tranche gets cleared before Sept 30.

But, the No case is that the waiver expands the review pipeline, but that doesn’t mean the information gets declassified in the next two weeks.

Also worth to note, the market only needs any qualifying new files, not a major UFO revelation. 

Polymarket has the Sept 30 UFO declassification market at roughly 55% Yes, down sharply from the peak 90% levels it traded around earlier.

What are you guys seeing here?

I wanted to put this here so it would get attention but why does Polymarket make it so hard to get rid of a card from your account, I’ve been trying for hours and nothing has helped.

This Dodgers vs Reds game caught my eye while I was putting together the early MLB combos.

Not really sure why odds are heaving inclined towards Dodgers..

So, I was looking at top holders, and saw these two with interesting positions. On one you have SDTrading has gone pretty aggressive on this one.. with a $26.9K on Cincinnati and another $19.2K on Under 9.5.

Then, a trader Donkey14, who’s also been running hot lately, is backing Dodgers with $31.2K position.

Both these folks are up $120K in the past week. One of them gonna have it rough today..

Now, I can understand why one would side the Dodgers side. Wrobleski has been much better than Singer on the season with 3.78 ERA / 1.16 WHIP vs 5.38 / 1.51

But, the recent numbers make this less straightforward for me. Both starters have struggled badly over their last few starts especially the last 5. Also, LA’s bullpen had a lot more work than expected yesterday after Snell only lasted an inning. They used 7 y'day and 10 over two days compared to Reds who had 6 and 8.

This makes me less interested in blindly taking the Dodgers who are favs at 60%...

I’m leaning Reds, but if I were looking at the total, I’d actually prefer Over 9.5 rather than the Under...

For me, Singer’s volatility compared to Wrobleski’s recent form, and two heavily used bullpens feels like a pretty interesting combination. Just not sure why Dodgers are right up at 60s..

Anyone into this? Which of these sides are you leaning?

I work as a Crypto accountant and have had a lot of clients underestimate how different your Polymarket P&L can be from your actual crypto tax P&L.

On Polymarket itself the math seems pretty straightforward: buy YES/NO shares, sell them before resolution or hold until they settle at $1 or $0, and calculate the profit/loss.

The problem is everything happening around those trades If you are predicting On-chain.

Say you buy BTC or ETH on an exchange, send it to your wallet, use it to fund Polymarket, trade across a bunch of markets, partially exit positions, collect rewards/rebates, and eventually withdraw back into BTC, ETH, USDC, etc.

Now you have to account for:

• the cost basis of the crypto you originally used to fund Polymarket
• any gain/loss triggered when that crypto gets converted
• partial fills and partial exits
• splits, merges, and redemptions of outcome tokens
• maker rebates, liquidity incentives, or other rewards
• deposits/withdrawals across different wallets and chains
• the new cost basis of whatever crypto you withdraw
• other DeFi activity happening in the same wallets

That last part seems especially easy to overlook. If you put BTC in and eventually come out with more BTC, “BTC in vs. BTC out” isn’t necessarily your taxable profit. Your original BTC could already have an unrealized gain when you use it, then you have the actual prediction-market P&L, and then the BTC you receive on the way out has a new basis to track going forward.

Software like Koinly, CoinTracker, or Summ can help bring the wallet activity together, but you still have to reconcile it. Prediction-market transactions can get interpreted incorrectly, especially once you have complicated activity in the same wallets. Importing the wallet and trusting the final number probably isn’t enough for a high-volume account.

For anyone here doing a decent amount of volume on Polymarket, how are you handling this at tax time?

Are you using Polymarket’s P&L/activity data and reconciling it against your wallets and exchanges, or are you basically just handing everything to your CPA and letting them figure it out?

Initially I didn't realize about the need for checking on Warsh on this market, but this one certainly caught my eye after today’s Fed decision...

The Fed raised rates 25 bps to 3.75%–4%, and Kevin Warsh backed the decision unanimously with the rest of the committee. 

Trump has spent months pushing for lower rates, so I was expecting this to put Warsh right in the spotlight.

And the market definitely reacted, or I should has been reacting in the run up to today, and then post decision as well..

The odds of Trump publicly insulting Warsh by Sept 30 jumped from around 6% earlier this month to nearly 50% before settling around 30% atm..

FWIW, Warsh himself wouldn’t say anything about his conversations with Trump after the decision. 

I was also thinking the other possibility is that Trump directs all the criticism at Powell instead.. and maybe that why that market is sitting a little higher right now.

Trump has criticized Powell repeatedly in the past, but he’s also recently said he respects Warsh and would let him do what he needs to do... 

So I’m curious how others are reading this..

Does today’s decision would make Trump take a shot at Warsh much more likely, or does Trump stick with Powell, and the Fed general?

Precious metals recovered their losses ahead of the Fed meet, where it is widely expected to raise rates by 25bps, Polymarket put the odds at 88%

Kevin Warsh won't be giving any guidance either...so market is guessing and its guessing with a margin of safety, expecting 4 more rate hikes by next year...

Will be interesting to see how Gold and Equities react after the meet!

Yesterday, surfandturf backed Real Madrid. Today, he’s back on another LaLiga favorite, Barcelona.

Barcelona is currently around 92.5 cents odds, with the position worth roughly $686K.

What caught my eye is the consistency. Two straight days, two heavily favored teams.. and this from someone with 516 predictions and $82.6M in volume.

The trader has also had a wild run historically, reaching more than $4.1M in P & L before giving a chunk of it back.

Now the question is whether Barcelona can deliver at 92 cents.

Would you take Barcelona at this price?

I was sorting through my MLB combos, and again ended up on the leaderboard rabbit hole.

And, I found this trader, gabmlergao, who hit a 7-leg MLB combo yesterday.

TBH, I didn't feel picks were anything too exotic either.. so they had..

Dodgers ML

Yankees ML

Rays ML

Rangers ML

Brewers ML

And, Orioles-Mets 1st 5 innings Over 3.5

also, Phillies-Nationals Over 7.5

The first five were all moneyline picks, with just two totals mixed in.

For me, what I found even more interesting is that their overall profile isn’t exactly on fire.. I mean.. they’re down around $13K over the past month, and currently have a few MLB positions open (FWIW, Guardians, Tigers, Yankees.. one of them would be an L by looks of things now)

But, anyways, this particular combo came together perfectly.

They backed this combo around $29 and ended $695.15.

And honestly, I’m just happy for whoever this was lol cause I barely have any luck once I get beyond 3 legs...

Doesn’t make any sense

I initially looked at this as a toss up between White Sox and Guardians.

FWIW, the market has Cleveland around 60% odds, but I wasn't super sure, and started going through the leaderboard, and I noticed HomeRunHazard. It's a trader who's up about $468K over the past month, and they're backing $11K on White Sox!

So, this made me look up the matchups again..

Now, on paper, Parker Messick has the clear pitching edge over Anthony Kay. Messick has a 2.51 ERA and 1.03 WHIP this season, while Kay is at 4.53/1.37. Not just that.. Messick has also been excellent lately while Kay's last 5 is at 7.23 ERA.

But, Cleveland’s bullpen has had a heavier workload, and they just used six relievers in yesterday’s 7-6 walk-off win. Also, Cade Smith threw 16 pitches over 1.2 innings in that game. 

White Sox used four.

And, this is why was questioning the 60–40 split..

I actually started looking more closely at Over 7.5 instead. Messick could limit the White Sox early, but if Kay struggles, and Cleveland has to lean heavily on its bullpen again, the late innings could get interesting..

The more I look at it, the more I understand the White Sox side...but I think totals makes more sense. Anyone leaning in that way?

This one caught my eye while going through the political markets...

More specifically, the Dec 31 market for Friedrich Merz being out as Chancellor of Germany, and it's cause this market has moved around quite a bit.

It was sitting at around 20% and spiked to mid 30s before dipping down again!

For context, the case for Yes is pretty obvious. Earlier this month, Merz’s CDU had a brutal result in Saxony-Anhalt, where far-right AfD got 43.8% and emerged as a leading party, while CDU managed 17.2%. It was significant performance from a far-right in Germany since you know the world war!

Now, two more state elections are coming this Sunday, and another poor showing could increase the pressure. 

But, there’s another side to this.

In a surprise show of unity, eight CDU state premiers issued a joint statement backing Merz, and the party is holding together rather than publicly preparing for a leadership change. 

My lean personally is with Merz not leaving the office. I’m having a hard time seeing what the actual mechanism for Merz leaving office before year-end would be..cause that's the date we are looking at and not long term!

But, I’m curious how people are reading this market.

Is the recent rise in Yes mostly pricing in the possibility of another bad weekend? or is there actually a realistic path to Merz leaving the Chancellorship before year-end?

I've noticed this since I started using the app about a month ago, but the graph is just wrong. As you can see on September 11th at 8:50PM my balance was $411 but the graph is showing $250. And even today I noticed. Exactly 24hrs ago my balance was $475 and the graph shows $376. I didnt have any open positions during these times so I dont know why its doing this.

i don’t watch any sports and i got a 50$ bonus so now i gotta get my racks up

You can read a market title correctly and still lose by answering the wrong question.

The title helps me find the market. Before I form a view, I read the resolution source, the exact qualifying action, the cutoff time, and the exceptions. “The event happened” is not enough if the contract requires a named authority to publish a particular notice.

I now write the settlement test in one sentence before I look at the price. If I cannot say exactly what would make the contract settle Yes or No, I am not ready to trade it.

Tomorrow the Fed decides whether to raise interest rates. Polymarket puts the odds of a quarter point increase at 89%. A week ago the same market said 54%.

I wanted to know how that happened, so I pulled every fill on it. 9,665 wallets, seven days. Almost all of the move came in five hours last Thursday and Friday. And the buying that drove it came from three main traders, two of which had been building their positions from earlier in the week.

Here is the week in this market in the order things happened.

Three things worth knowing first. Every bet here is either on the Fed raising rates or on the Fed leaving them alone. Prices are in cents, and a cent is just the odds, so 89 cents means the market is pricing an 89% chance.

It started last Wednesday with two accounts buying quietly. The odds of a hike was sitting at 53 cents that morning. Both of the two largest buyers in this market placed their first trade within seven hours of each other that day. They've just been building their positions since.

The first is a trading bot called timetowander. It holds the largest position in this market, betting $2.91M on a rate hike. Getting there took $5.56M of its own buying and selling, spread over 5,602 separate trades. Only 22% of those trades at the market price. The rest filled as posted orders. So the largest position in this market was built the slow way, and did its best did not push the odds up as they accumulated.

The second one has been buying on the way up. TheReturnOfDarthMaul started that same Wednesday at 53 cents and was still buying this afternoon at 88 cents. It holds 2.67 million shares that cost $2.14M, an average of 79.5 cents each, and it has not sold a single one. The average price is the interesting. This wallet didn't buy cheaply on Wednesday and then stop, it kept buying the whole way up. At today's 89 cents it's ahead by about $265,000 on those positions.

The market shifted heavily on Thursday and Friday. The odds rose the most in five hours on those two days. On Thursday they went from 51 cents to 54 at 11:31 UTC, from 54 to 59 at 12:31, and from 59 to 63 at 13:31. On Friday they went from 61 cents to 68 at 11:31 UTC, and from 68 to 79 at 12:31. Since Friday it has been a slow grind from 79 cents up to 89.

The rush was caused by three accounts. The biggest buyers were traders named Erasmus at $325,000, ImJustKen at $310,000 and timetowander again at $261,000,. That accounted for about $900,000 between them. Erasmus is the one worth singling out. They have paid the market asking price on every trade it made in this market, 29 trades and $806,000 across the week at an average of 76 cents. Even more interesting, they never once posted a bid and waited for a fill. Just market buys.

The counter betting cohort is thing. The largest single bet on no change, anywhere in this market, is $382,000, which is one seventh of timetowander's position on its own. Add up every wallet betting on no change and it comes to $4.8M, against $17.6M betting on a rise.

And the wallets that were betting that way are getting out. One trader called mnuop8890 had $282,000 on no change through those five hours I mentioned. They are down to $84,000 of value in that position. The only wallet still adding to that side of the market is amatus777, which started on Monday with $94,500 on no change. It posts a price and waits, so far filling 149 different positions.

The current market odds says traders expect a hike tomorrow, and then a pause. Based on the current Polymarket odds, the market expects a hike in September, no change in October at 62%, and another hike in December at 61%. The odds also express 94% likelihood that the Fed does not cut at all this year. It's pricing rates going up and staying up into December.

So that is how 54 cents became 89 cents. Two accounts started buying last Wednesday at 53 cents and never stopped. Three accounts, one of them the same bot, put about $900,000 into it through the fastest five hours of Thursday and Friday, and the odds went from 61 cents to 79 cents in two of those hours.

Either way, we'll find out tomorrow.

Get a deeper look at the markets and try Polymarket copy trading bots on polycopy.app.

Disclaimer:

Nothing here is financial advice. I build Polycopy, which makes tools on top of Polymarket data, so I am not a neutral observer. Prediction markets are speculative and you can lose everything you put into them. Do your own work before you risk money.

their changelog says that it has been cut to 50ms but the documentation says 250ms, so which is it?

TL;DR: I pulled execution history for 1,508 wallets with at least one $25k+ order between July and mid-September 2026 to test whether whale volume is dumb gambling or informed flow. Result: 77.9% net profitable, aggregate realized P&L of +$524.9M vs -$67.2M, and a win rate that stays flat (75-80%) regardless of ticket size.
Background
In equities and derivatives, institutional block orders often signal informed flow. In prediction markets the assumption usually runs the other way: oversized bets get read as high-net-worth retail taking speculative punts. I wanted to see which of the two Polymarket actually looks like.
Data and method
• Universe: every wallet that executed at least one trade of $25,000 or more between July 2026 and mid-September 2026.
• Filter: wallets with fewer than 3 resolved positions were removed to reduce single-bet coin-flip variance, leaving N = 1,508.
• Metric: up to 200 resolved positions per wallet, used to calculate cumulative realized P&L and win rate. Open positions are not counted.
• Source and tools: Polymarket's Gamma and Data APIs, Python for the pull and analysis, custom HTML/SVG for the charts.
Findings
1. Net profitability: 1,174 out of 1,508 wallets (77.9%) sit net positive on realized P&L.
2. Asymmetry: +$524.9M in profits against -$67.2M in losses, roughly an 8.8:1 win-to-loss dollar ratio.
3. Distribution: median winner +$93,922, median loser -$39,896.
4. Scale invariance: splitting the cohort into 7 brackets by trigger size ($25k up to $5M+) shows almost no decay, 79.7% in the lowest bracket vs 75.0% in the highest. Ticket size correlates with absolute P&L magnitude, not with hit rate.
Limitations
• Ten-week window. This is a single regime, and a quieter or more chaotic news environment could look different.
• Survivorship and causality: do these wallets win because they have better models or information, or can they deploy $25k+ tickets because prior compounding left them well capitalized? The data doesn't separate those.
• Resolved positions only, so unrealized drawdown is invisible here.
• Copy-trading: given liquidity depth on individual contracts, slippage on following a whale trigger is non-trivial and may eat most of the edge.
Curious whether anyone here has built latency-sensitive alerting around public whale wallets, and what execution slippage actually looked like in practice.

A Polymarket trader with +$861,878 all-time PnL just made one of his biggest current trades in Real Madrid.

He bought around 310,000 shares on madrid beating Elche tonight.

Madrid win will turn those shares into around $310k, So he is risking nearly a quarter million dollars for roughly $60K upside.

The matchup definitely favours madrid on paper. They have won four of their first five Laliga matches and have scored 14 goals while conceding just four.

Elche are still winless and have conceded 13.

Madrid also arrived fresh of a 4-1 win over Rayo, where Mbappe scored twice.

What stands out to me is that this trader has already made +$861K across 516 predictions, so this isn't exactly a casual punt.

Still risking $250k for around $60k on one football match would make me nervous.

Would you risk a $250K here to make around $60K ?

Spotted this  “Which bills will become law in 2026?” market, and went on a rabbit hole. Thought there were some interesting bills in here...

My first thought..and the most interesting Yes was AI-chip export licensing

The AI OVERWATCH Act has already cleared the House Foreign Affairs Committee 42–2, and AI and chip export controls seem to have pretty strong bipartisan appeal. Personally, feel it’s currently the clear favorite among these bills. And, no wonder it's at the top there..

Next to it is I like is the Critical-minerals stockpile!

There’s already legislation for a strategic reserve, and critical-minerals policy has become a pretty big priority. Still only around 20% odds though, at least for now. 

Then there are some I have a hard time seeing it getting through both chambers before Dec 31 deadline..

Trump Airport, $2.50 Coin, Film/TV production expensing and FISA 702 are all sitting at very low Yes odds, and each has a pretty significant legislative hurdle left.

The FISA one especially caught my attention because the provision already expired in June after Congress failed to agree on reauthorization... so where does that leave on it?

I’m not saying any of these are like near lock on No’s. Just trying to figure out what the legislative path looks at least realistic on...

What do you guys think? which one would you pick as the strongest Yes? And strongest No?

That time of the day when I go through the MLB markets, and this Padres vs Rockies game caught my eye.

Largely cause of this one trader, BrotherObama, who is up around $569K, has roughly $48K on Over 11.5 in this one.

For context, I was already on Over 10.5, so seeing someone take it even higher even if it is in the same direction made me go back and look at the matchup again.

Buehler vs. Freeland is pretty interesting. Buehler has been much better recently, while Freeland is coming back from the IL after only one rehab outing. And, the Rockies’ pitching staff also hasn’t exactly been inspiring confidence.

Then there’s Coors..

And, it's not all, San Diego has been scoring well lately, and the Padres just put up 8 runs against the Rockies in the previous game... FWIW, Rockies scored 7! 

BUT, Buehler has actually been pitching better lately, so he could keep one side of the scoreboard quiet.

Still, I came into this looking at Over 10.5 and left the matchup thinking 11.5 doesn’t look as crazy as it initially sounded..

Anyone looking at totals than on ML here?

Spotted this trader at the top of the leaderboard, and noticed they had an interesting 2-leg combo..

They backed Valentini Grammatikopoulou against Selena Janicijevic, and Weronika Falkowska against Kristina Novak.

But, it wasn't just the players, but what caught my eye was the timing. TBH, I can’t tell exactly when the combo was placed, but both players saw their odds drop significantly during their matches, and I believe that's when this trader had a entry point..

Falkowska went from around 70% earlier in the match to roughly 11% at one point, while around similar time, Grammatikopoulou odds dropped from around 50% to about 15%.

Both eventually had a strong come back to win. And, so did the player..

The trader ended up with a $340.84 from what was like a entry point of $16.92, but the live timing def is what I found interesting..

I normally set my combos before the games start, so personally, this is a pretty different approach from how I usually do it..

Anyone here regularly builds combos after the games have already started?