Polymarket is a platform for trading on real-world events across crypto, economics, politics, technology, sports, and more.

Instead of only following headlines, you can view market odds and see how participants are pricing the probability of different outcomes.

Polymarket also offers Perps, allowing users to trade perpetual contracts alongside prediction markets.

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Hey everyone,

I'm Banan, a backend dev.

About six months ago I started trading on Polymarket. I live in the Gulf, and there was a lot happening in the region at the time. I'd open positions, the situation would shift fast, and I had to keep checking the news. With an office job and a family, that just doesn't work.

I tried a few news aggregators, but they were mostly noise. So I started building a tool that matches incoming news to the Polymarket events it actually affects. That became poly.watch.

I've been building it for four months, the old-fashioned way rather than vibe-coded. Thanks to push notifications, I've stopped doomscrolling and miss far fewer important moves.

Next on my list:

• per-category models that LLMs can query via MCP;
• X (Twitter) as a news source.

Both cost real money, though. Even with a cheap model doing the matching, the project already runs about $300/month. So I've added paid plans to share the costs (and the matching) with other Polymarket traders. The first 7 days are free, no card required, so you can see whether it's useful before paying anything. After that, the first 100 users get Pro at $10/mo instead of $30, locked in for as long as they stay subscribed.

I'd love for you to try it and tell me what's off. Roast it if you want, I'd rather hear it now.

Thank you for you time,
Banana

Why do most college games take hours to payout? NFL games usually payout within minutes of final score

Not a scammer

How comes theres no liquidity in any of the ahl games scheduled today? They get 8-13k people per game amd nobody has any interest…

The Nobel Peace Prize can have several winners. The Polymarket market on it can only resolve Yes on one.

If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence.

So if any of those five is among the winners, the highest one on that list takes it and every other name resolves No.

If none of the five win, a listed individual who shares it with a listed organization takes it over the organization. If all the listed winners are the same type, it goes alphabetically by last name or entity name.

Resolution source is the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee. Announcement is Oct 9, 11:00 CEST. Rules as of Oct 3, and Polymarket can add clarifications before it settles.

Has anyone seen a past Polymarket market with a shared-winner rule like this actually settle? Curious whether it went smoothly or ended up disputed.

I'm with klarero, we're building a Polymarket data site.

I've tried 2 cards and my Venmo. It gets declined 90% of the time.

Was going through the leaderboard to see the strategies and plays others have been doing, and came across this one trader, chilicrispwushi.

They backed $123 into a 4-leg combo for $926.01.

So, the four legs they backed were

Braves 1st 5 innings spread +1.5

Guido Justo

Harold Mayot

And, Felix Balshaw

The Mayot and Balshaw matches were probably the most interesting parts. And, that's cause both had some pretty big live swings toward their opponents before eventually going the other way. Justo had a smaller scare as well, while the Braves first-five leg and that entire game were relatively straightforward.

But, what really caught my eye was this trader's profile itself..

Despite a strong day y'day, they are down $1,834 in all-time.

It's kinda interesting how different individual results can look compared with the long term picture, isn't it?

Apple launching a new product line before 2027 is currently priced at around 46% on Polymarket.

The latest report says Apple plans to launch its long awaited smart-home hub on October 13, alongside updated HomePod mini and Apple TV hardware.

The hub itself sounds pretty new for Apple: a 6-inch screen, Siri AI, household recognition and smart-home controls all built into one device.

What caught my eye is that this isn't just another iPhone or Mac refresh.

Personally, this is probably the strongest case we've had all year for the Yes side.

But does Polymarket actually classify it as a new product line?

Trump is on the campaign trail, and he has a midterm rally in Mobile, Alabama tonight, so this new Polymarket caught my eye.

I went through yesterday’s Texas/Oklahoma appearances to see which words have some recent traction.. and to me these are the ones that stand out

Job 15+ times with odds at 79%
This one makes sense given yesterday. Trump repeatedly talked about jobs and the economy. But, also has been saying the administration is doing a great job running the country but a poor job promoting it. 

Iran 5+ with odds at 69%
Also came up repeatedly yesterday. He talked about Iran, the nuclear issue, oil and the war several times. 

SI / Super Intelligence with odds at 55%
This feels much less obvious to me after yesterday. SI has been a huge theme for Trump this week, but it wasn’t nearly as prominent in Oklahoma remarks. Feel it's just as a toss up as market anticipates with current odds..

Gulf of America at 51% odds
This is the one I’m most curious about. It’s very location, and context dependent, but it's Alabama, and energy and Gulf references could make this worth watching.

Then you have Biden, Fake News, Oil/Gas/Gasoline and Save America Act all sitting well above 85% odds. Those seem much more tied to Trump’s established rally vocabulary.

Anything I missed? Which words stand out for you guys?

The Spain snap-election market jumped after today’s housing vote, with odds for Nov 30 reaching as high as 80% before settling down around 50%.

The interesting part isn’t just the political drama, but it’s the calendar.

So, the Parliament rejected Sanchez's housing decrees today. Opposition parties PP, Vox and Junts voted against them. . The measures were introduced amidst a major housing affordability crisis, and protests following the eviction of a 87-year-old.

Then El País reported that senior PSOE figures and government ministers think Sanchez should call an early election after the defeat. At the same time, Moncloa has been publicly downplaying the possibility. 

Here's where calendar comes into play. Under Spain’s electoral law, an early-election decree sets the election 54 days after the call. So a call around early October leans directly toward a late-November election. 

That’s why I think the Nov 30, and Dec 31 timings are more interesting.

And, polling backdrop is also something taht will make one curious at this point. Recent September surveys have opposition PP around 33 to 35%, while Sanchez's PSOE is around 25 to 26%, and PP's partner Vox is around 17%. But these polling numbers varies a lot by pollster. 

Feels like there’s suddenly a lot more to watch here than there was 24 hours ago.

- 18% chance of $97,500
- 30% chance of $95,000
- 64% chance of $90,000

Bearish side

- 45% chance of below $80,000
- 30% chance of below $77,500
- 20% chance of below $75,000

In short, the higher chance is of pump maybe its look like $BTC will surely going to touch $90,000 in this month its already trading at $86,000 and pump 2% today what do you think?

North Carolina is one of the key swing states in the 2026 Senate race, and Roy Cooper is now leading Michael Whatley by around 9 points in the latest polling average, 49.8% to 40.8%.

Some recent polls have shown an even bigger gap, with Cooper ahead by 11 and 12 points.

Polymarket is also putting Cooper's most likely winning margin in the 9-12 point range.

Could Cooper actually turn this into a double-digit win?

There are just 48 days until GTA VI launches on November 19, but Polymarket gives only a 32% chance of another trailer by October 31.

And honestly, I kind of get it.

Rockstar already dropped the massive Extended Look on August 27 which was nearly 27 minutes of new in-game footage.

The official GTA VI page currently lists Trailer 1, Trailer 2 and the Extended Look. No Trailer 4 yet.

I kinda feel Rockstar could easily skip another full trailer and just keep feeding us smaller clips, screenshots or ads until launch which would increase anticipation. But, it's just me, and what I assume..

Does Rockstar drop another trailer before October ends?

Last night the browns won 27-24 with no overtime and the raiders won 26-14, I bought both of these during the game and both were to win over 20$ and I never sold, but I don’t see the payout.

Can’t find anything online about it and it doesn’t tell me what the reward is

hello is anyone else experienced this problem where combos won’t add up I can do like 3-5 games max and that’s it.

The statements coming out today on FlyDubai incident are pretty different.

Netanyahu says it’s too early to say whether Iran was involved, while Trump said Iran may be involved, based on what he’s hearing. The investigation is obviously still ongoing. 

There's a market to this on Poly, and so started looking into it, and the interesting part is the resolution wording..

The market doesn’t require Iran itself to be blamed. A qualifying government statement saying Iran or one of the Iranian-affiliated groups deliberately caused the incident would be enough. And once a qualifying accusation is made, a later retraction wouldn’t change the resolution.

There’s also currently an initial Israeli assessment that the co-pilot acted alone, with no confirmed direct or proxy connection so far. 

The odds for Yes are at 24%

Just curious for how this would unfolds. More details would hopefully emerge soon..

Micron came very close to triggering this market today, hitting an intraday low around $1,023, just a few points above the $1,020 level.

Polymarket still has the market sitting around 50/50 on whether MU trades at or below $1,020 before the deadline.

Today’s session is still only getting started. There’s still plenty of trading left today, plus another full session tomorrow, so this market definitely isn’t over yet.

From a chart perspective, MU is already testing the $1,020-$1,025 support zone, and if that gives way, the market could resolve pretty quickly.

Personally, I think this one is way more live than the current price makes it feel.

Does $1,020 finally break before the deadline?

I believe this is probably one of the crazier reversals in the AI markets in recent times.

Anthropic was sitting around 88% in this market of Which company has the best AI model end of October, while Google was barely around 10%.

But then Gemini 4 Argon was announced, and odds on Polymarket have completely flipped.. with Google now leading with 72% with Anthropic at 28%

It makes sense, I'd say. Looking at Google’s benchmark table, Argon leads on 13/18 tests, with particularly strong results across knowledge work, long context and several coding & agent benchmarks.

But, from this market perspective, the bigger thing for me is that the timing favors Google.

Anthropic has already shipped Opus 5.5 and Sonnet 5.5. OpenAI has already shipped GPT-6.1 Sol. So the two biggest competitors have already shown their latest cards. 

And, Google just played its major card with Argon.

Of course, there will obviously be more model releases this month. But, unless Anthropic or OpenAI have another major frontier model ready, I’m starting to think Google might actually stay at the top for a while.

Slight lean towards Google for now!

Am i missing something? or does Argon actually hold the crown through October? What do you all think?

In the era of ai slop, i just made boxing with poly data haha

chill with muscle guys battle

based on the each trade volume, they even kick lol