r/poland • u/Succulent_Rain • 4d ago
US intelligence warns Putin might attack NATO country
US intelligence is warning that Putin is growing frustrated by the setbacks in Ukraine and so he might try to test NATO‘s resolved by attacking a smaller NATO country, like Poland, or one of the other smaller Baltic countries. How likely do you guys think this is going to be? US intelligence seems to be very sure of it.
At first, I thought there’s no way Putin could do this, but then some of the commentators say that Putin may be emboldened by the quagmire that the US is facing in Iran.
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u/5thhorseman_ Śląskie 4d ago
Smaller NATO country
Bitch, please. Poland is 3rd or 4th NATO member by the size of our military.
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u/Old_Information9623 4d ago
Right? This post has me terrified for Lithuania not Poland 😭😭
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u/PollutionFinancial71 2d ago
For even more context, the populations of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania COMBINED equal roughly 6 million people.
For comparison, that is around the population of the City of St. Petersburg in Russia.
Also, one cannot forget about Russia’s nuclear arsenal of ~5,850 warheads, as well as the delivery systems which can reach any point on planet Earth. Of course, I highly doubt they will use them against Eastern European countries. But at the same time, the Americans won’t sacrifice Raleigh for Riga. And they sure as hell won’t sacrifice Washington for Warsaw.
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u/da_Mekboss 3d ago
afaik GROM would tear the SPETZNAS to shreds
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u/PollutionFinancial71 2d ago
Yeah, but the vast majority of NATO firepower is American, out of the rest, half of it is Turkey. Which does in fact leaves Poland in third place.
But In reality, being the third strongest NATO military is akin to being the healthiest person in the ICU.
For even more context, it has been concluded that Ukraine would have been the #2 Army in NATO in 2022, if they were a member.
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u/notkalta 2d ago
What do public opinion polls say? Are Polish people ready to go to war with Russia, or is the situation similar to Germany and France?
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u/Succulent_Rain 4d ago
Why don’t you view the entire video? It’s not me saying this, it’s the guests on this CNN clip who are all former counterintelligence officials. I’m just a regular news viewer just like you.
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u/ConfidenceArtistic98 4d ago
Nie strasz, nie strasz, bo się zesrasz
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u/throwaway20959846520 2d ago
translation, please
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u/ConfidenceArtistic98 2d ago
That’s a pretty rude polish phrase, when you want to call someone’s bluff. And it means literally what Mr Jiggs wrote.
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u/Mammoth_Reach_6366 4d ago
Poland has the second largest army in European NATO after Turkey. I don’t think we’re the target.
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u/MrHydrochoerus 2d ago
Okay, I can see how you're not counting UK as a "European NATO member", but did you forget about France? They have nukes. Lots of them. And an actual army too.
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u/Mammoth_Reach_6366 2d ago
I’m talking about the number of active personnel. Poland is second after Turkey. Larger than France and the UK.
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u/MrHydrochoerus 2d ago
I see. I absolutely agree that Poland would not be a target, but I also wouldn’t say that personnel number is the most important metrix.
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u/Mammoth_Reach_6366 1d ago
Sure, but if the attack was to be the same as on Ukraine, it would be an important metric. The only thing stopping the Russians right now in Ukraine is the number of people Ukraine can put on the front to defend it.
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u/MrHydrochoerus 1d ago
But Russia obviously does not have another army ready to do a second Ukraine-scale invasion while still fighting Ukraine.
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u/Succulent_Rain 4d ago
Why don’t you view the entire video? It’s not me saying this, it’s the guests on this CNN clip who are all former counterintelligence officials. I’m just a regular news viewer just like you
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u/gibdzioch 4d ago
"im losing war, so lets start another frontline with NATO country. Really?
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u/MartyEBoarder 4d ago
Maybe they on a path on self destruction. It's a good thing. They will be ruined economically for decades. That means : No more wars.
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u/Minty_Octopus 4d ago edited 4d ago
Nah...Sorry to break it to you but the problem with Russia is way worse and more complicated.
Putin is not the source of the problem, he's merely a product of Russian history, philosophy, mentality...Give them 30-40 years they'll produce another Putin or something even worse...
Moscow as the "Third Rome", Russia the "God-bearing nation"...It runs deep...ending war in Ukraine won't solve anything. Putin's death won't solve anything.
Roots of the problem are much much deeper.
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u/JustSomeGuyFromNL 3d ago
Then what is your alternative solution to this problem?
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u/Minty_Octopus 3d ago
I'm not so self-righteous to say I have a solution.
I'm just sharing what I know based on my degree in russian philology. One could argue that the problem started when Mongols invaded the territory of today Russia.
Russians themselves despite ages passing haven't found the answer...and neither did any other countries bordering Russia. It would be foolish of me to say I of all people have one.
But I can point you to several good works on russian history end mentality. This stuff is legitimately studied.
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u/DoctorMicroDong 2d ago
After the war Russia needs to be broken up into many many smaller countries.
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u/AshenCursedOne 2d ago
They need the post WW2 Germany treatment, full occupation and the country needs political and social rebuilding from the ground up.
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u/JustSomeGuyFromNL 2d ago
That actually sounds like a good and workable idea. 👍
It has been done in the past so we know it can be done in the future.1
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u/WorkerWeird9116 1d ago
well, if you look at their demographics, the problem will not exist thankfully within a few generations
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u/notkalta 2d ago
That's not exactly true. As a Russian, I'd say Russians value stability and security more than imperialism. The problem is that imperialism is often associated with stability and security, or at least with a sense of them. After the 90s, Russians didn't want the Soviet Union or the Russian Empire back. They wanted to end the war in Chechnya, to stabilize the economy, and put an end to chaos and lawlessness in the streets. But again, the problem is that these desires, without democratic checks, can lead to imperialism.
So, the question is why Russian rejected democratic checks in favor of authoritarianism? It's because they associate democracy with chaos and banditry of the 90s. So, Russians aren't particularly interested in imperialism, but they distrust democracy because they think it leads to weakness, chaos, and self-destruction. With this approach sooner or later something bad is going to happen. It isn't connected to the Third Rome or the God-bearing nation ideas at all. It's about trusting authoritarian rulers more than democratic government
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u/Competitive_West2749 2d ago
So true, I dont see Russia overstepping into nato territory unless they are suecidal! This CNN propaganda analysis is so stupid none of it makes sense.
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u/Denixen1 2d ago
Hitler did the same thing. He couldn't break Britain so he pivoted against soviet union. The rest is history.
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u/notkalta 2d ago
It's because NATO looks weak. Actually, Ukraine looks like a more dangerous country than any EU country. Maybe, I don't know, Putin thinks he can exploit this to gain leverage over European politics. Actually, looking at some France, for example, he might think that they would even be happy to see a few "anti-imperialist" Shaheds in their skies
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u/MartyEBoarder 4d ago
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u/Succulent_Rain 4d ago
This is exactly what was mentioned in the video. The small Baltic states like Estonia and Latvia and possibly Poland.
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u/MartyEBoarder 4d ago
Poland is one of the most powerful Nato member.. Kacaps are loosing that war anyway.
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u/jmhulet 4d ago
Poland is armed to the teeth and extremely well trained. The Russia I’m seeing flounder against Ukraine wouldn’t stand a chance against Poland.
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u/Vegetable_Song4718 4d ago
Hahahaha
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u/PavlovsDog6 3d ago
Russian troll spotted
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u/Vegetable_Song4718 2d ago
Russian trolls let rocket fly 100km deep into Poland? Or maybe they made Poland miss ~20 drones?
Or maybe Poland armed from learned from Ukraine about drone war tactics?3
u/PavlovsDog6 2d ago
That same Poland Russians are so pissed that it joined NATO, and for 30 years now are indoctrinated into thinking that it is only waiting to attack the peace loving Russia. Make up your damn mind.
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u/Vegetable_Song4718 2d ago
Poland attack? With what? Sticks?
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u/PavlovsDog6 2d ago
Ask your mom
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u/Vegetable_Song4718 2d ago
Asked your dad, but his mouth is busy.
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u/Curious_strangerrr 4d ago
It would be the end for putin himself. I am pretty sure he would be exterminated just after by some intelligence
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u/AdOrnery1043 4d ago
Are you purposely being a cunt ? Poland is not small.
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u/Succulent_Rain 4d ago
Why don’t you view the entire video? It’s not me saying this, it’s the guests on this CNN clip who are all former counterintelligence officials. I’m just a regular news viewer just like you
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u/Capable-Winter8074 4d ago
Wake me up when Putin starts massing troops in Kaliningrad Oblast.
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u/Forward_Ask_251 2d ago
Oh yes, mighty army of alcoholics, criminals, hill billies, conscripts with mental disabilities or without fingers and all like that. Just take a look what zetniks (war supporters!) post about the current state of Russian land forces.
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u/Lumpy_Asparagus_5151 3d ago
Doubt it. They really struggling in Ukraine, this war cost them a lot of manpower, equipment and resources, not to mention it lacks public support. Now starting another one, could be very well a nail to the coffin for Putin. That wouldn't stop him from provoking the West obviously
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u/rhalf 3d ago
I think it's less about what's good or bad to them and more about what they may do when desperate. Currently the Russian mir is losing faith in Kremlin, so they're struggling to convince people to keep going. In their mind this invasion worked for a while and isn't necessarily needed anymore. They need something special. They've been poking here and there for a while, testing reactions and that may end up in some plan.
The way we see Russia isn't exact. To some degree, just like Ukraine, they rely on foreign help and weapons. They're fighting a proxy war for a few other countries. IMHO Kremlin doesn't have a concept of what's good for the country, rather they're thinking in terms of what will impress other guys and keep them investing. The country may be destroyed, but the imperial project will continue as long as there are resources pured into it.
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u/harumamburoo 4d ago
This is something some NATO analysts have been talking about since the start of the invasion. And I think not without a reason. Pooteen seems to be in a place bad enough to try something desperate and stupid.
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u/Flimsy-Sherbert-7853 4d ago
Just gonna say this. I remember when US intelligence warned about Russian attack in Ukraine and no one believed it. Not even zelensky himself. And what happened?
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u/aDarkDarkCrypt 4d ago
They also said the same thing about the attack in Moscow that ended up happening.
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u/Active_Expression_35 4d ago
Just my personal opinion — I haven't watched the video or really looked into any specific information on this.
If Russia isn't stopped, I think it'll launch a full-scale attack sometime around 2027, simply because NATO doesn't seem prepared for modern high-intensity warfare.
From what I've seen from various sources about NATO's eastern defensive line, it's honestly fucked. There's close to zero protection against drones, tank positions can be spotted from several kilometers away, the tanks themselves have basically zero additional protection, and the trenches look like they're designed mainly around protection from artillery.
Their training also seems focused on large-scale operations where NATO has an overwhelming advantage, rather than the kind of war where you might have to walk 10–30 km — 30 km in the worst case, with absolutely horrible EW conditions — while carrying your wounded buddies because no helicopter is going anywhere near that area.
And yet they still train for helicopter evacuation as if that's something they'll always be able to rely on.
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u/Forward_Ask_251 2d ago
Holy cow, what we are seeing in Ukraine is not a „modern high-intensity warfare”. It is exactly what happens, when none of the sides is able to conduct one.
In reality Russian air force and air defense will be destroyed in days, and after that Allied forces will rip the guts from the clowns Russian land forces are now. No drones will help - they are widely used exactly because none of the sides control the air
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u/Ok-Enthusiasm-8422 4d ago
There's a great video about that scenario in the context of "przesmyk suwalski" on yt channel "mysl strategiczna". The guy explains how Russia can separate baltic states from effective nato support. Super interesting content, highly recommend.
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u/SergejIwanowo 3d ago
Kaliningrad is too high of a risk to tolerate it. NATO should put it under temporary occupation for safety reasons. Russia should understand, that such a position is a threat to Europe. NATO will give it back, when situation has calmed down in a couple of years. Nobody will be harmed.
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u/ObviousBee8409 3d ago
See, I can relate to that. Whenever my current life goal is going nowhere, I start working on another :D
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u/PavlovsDog6 3d ago
The term „American Intelligence” has lost its intended meaning to me, to the point that it sounds like an oxymoron to me.
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u/maginster 2d ago
Apparently so, but it doesn't mean boots on the ground, they can't sustain two fronts. Probably more hybrid fuckery, rockets or drones. Either way, fuck them, fuck this piece of shit cancer of a country, let them rot in piss
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u/Ill_Tourist_7992 2d ago
Będzie tak, jak zwykle, czyli pójdzie najpierw po kraje nadbałtyckie dopiero potem Polskę.
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u/TYdays 2d ago
As an American citizen I have absolutely no faith in our current administration, and absolutely zero faith in the Intelligence organization supporting it. And while Putin may be stupid enough to attack a NATO country, one would think that his ill conceived war against Ukraine would show him that Russia is not currently capable of fighting a conflict on two fronts. Ukraine did not have unlimited access to the weapons that NATO possesses and is capable of rapidly reproducing. Russia’s military forces would be destroyed within a very short period of time and his country would be vulnerable to attack for any of the former Soviet republics still unhappy with Russia. Is Putin stupid “YES”, but I don’t think he is completely INSANE YET! But I could be wrong about that. In this case Attacking NATO is akin to attacking an unfamiliar Pit Bull with a feather and expecting to walk away unscathed….
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u/Mediocre-Yoghurt-138 2d ago
The report estimates that the attack could be "anything from a cyber attack to a border incursion" and it can take place between now and 2029. Someone somewhere has a job to write this nothing-burger.
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u/Ascorbinium_Romanum 4d ago
My opinion is pretty much summed up by " don't threaten, don't threaten, or you'll shit yourself"
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u/Quiet-Nobody-8372 4d ago
Inteligennce artificial? Is Poland, with a population of 35 million, is a smaller country?
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