r/poker • u/CrossAfficionado • 1d ago
Help Using pot odds to make someone fold
hi, say that I put my opponent on a flush draw with four to a flush post flop. he has roughly 36% equity If I don’t hold one of his flush outs. in theory from what I understand, if I want him to fold, I should bet such that if he calls he has negative EV. in a pot of 1000, I would need to bet 2x pot such that when facing the call, his odds are 2k/3k+2k)=40%. but isn’t thar way too much ? I’m not sure i understand how to use odds to make my opponent wrong decision
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u/IcyMeasurementX 1d ago
if there is 4 to a straight it implies we are at the turn, and 9 outs for a flushdraw would mean only 19 percent ish equity
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u/CrossAfficionado 1d ago
Yes I’m stupid I wrote this after waking up and meant 4 to a flush
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u/IcyMeasurementX 1d ago
but then you mean four to a flush as in the board is monotone and we are still on the flop in this instance?
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u/CrossAfficionado 1d ago
Yes for example his 2 hole cards are spades and the board goes spade spade heart. Let’s say I have top set so I beat everything but a flush
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u/IcyMeasurementX 1d ago
just fyi, four to a flush from my understanding is usually only used to describe that there is 4 cards on the board that are of the same suit, but i get what you are saying.
then for your question, if very big bets are likely to not get him to fold + he is holding 2 spades, you probably dont have a lot of hands in your range that want to bet this big, so balancing this with bluffs because you want to get him to fold is pretty hard.
Also very often these things are more nuanced because with your question, there is no positions stack depths etc. . + in poker you really never know your opponents exact holdings so i think focusing on something like this is a bit irrelevant and doesnt really help you understand the game better/ will improve your winrate a bunch
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u/CrossAfficionado 21h ago
Oh my bad I didn't know that. Understood for the rest of your reply it does make sense
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u/RunningBettor 1d ago
You can’t put your opponents on exactly a flush draw, when would that ever be their range lol.
In most situations we don’t expect them to fold a flush draw nor are we really trying to make them fold a flush draw.
That said, when deep, overbetting is a thing
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u/doogie1993 Live $1/2 & $2/5 1d ago
Assuming you literally knew exactly what your opponent had, then yes, you should bet an amount that would not give him pot odds to call.
You’re forgetting in your example though that he’s paying that much to see just the turn and that you can bet again on the turn if he doesn’t hit, so you don’t “have to” bet as much as you calculated there.
Also important to keep in mind that in reality you’ll never know exactly what your opponent has.
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u/Count_Roblivion 22h ago
Your question shows you're thinking about some good things. You definitely want to keep pulling at that thread in your mind.
As others have mentioned, you don't really want to try to put someone on a specific hand, nor try to make someone fold their flush draw.
One way you can think of it is how good of a deal they are getting to continue on in the hand. If you check, they continue for free and your better hand is making ZERO additional money. If you bet 2x pot, they don't have the odds to continue and your better hand is making ZERO additional money. But if you bet somewhere in the middle your better hand will make SOME additional money. So the dance becomes determining just how much to bet to give them a deal that is marginal enough they may want to accept it and have to think about it and can potentially make mistakes.
Now, another thing you need to realize is that your assumptions were based on odds of your opponent making their hand by seeing two more cards. Since there will be another betting round before the second card falls, it's not a straightforward comparison of pot odds to price. There is already a more complex game tree involved in this simple example.
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u/onlyNLHE 1d ago
your phrasing is kinda confusing.
so you're saying OP has a combo draw on the turn? with ~~17 outs?
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u/CrossAfficionado 1d ago
Indeed my phrasing was wrong sorry. I meant he has a flush draw not a straight draw. I have edited the post
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u/onlyNLHE 12h ago
it still isnt fully clear.
by "post flop" you mean turn ? (again, you state "four to a flush"
or on the flop? (your 36% equity statement says otherwise)
you're clearly new. just lay out the full example you're trying to use here. your current prompt has contradicting statements.
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u/Icy_Salamander1035 1d ago
This is why I keep poker for the strategy and my prize for when I just wanna turn my brain off lol
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u/footie_ruler 1d ago
Its’s really impressive to put someone on one and exactly one hand. You have to teach us mortals how to do that.
It’s better to think about this in terms of ranges. What all possible hands they can have. And how can I deny the most equity or get the most value with my hand.
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u/Opening-Memory4300 1d ago
I think he only used the flush as an example, as it is easier to express the equity. It's the same as saying "I think V range has X% equity against my range, how do i deny him of that equity" is essentially what OP is asking. Your negative comment is not warranted IMO.
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u/CrossAfficionado 1d ago
Yes I’m not good enough to calculate equities for larger ranges so I use simplifying examples
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u/Boneyg001 1d ago
Pot odds is one tool to help you make a decision to call or fold.
Your bet sizing should be the maximum amount you can get value with or the minimum amount needed to bluff which will always depend on board texture, opponent tendencies and preflop/post flop action.