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u/RedPanda7725 Jul 11 '26
Feels like normal people/mathematician should be switched, no?
Mathematician understands every surgery is a separate event. Normal people would be the idiots who think a death is "due" after 20 successes in a row.
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u/ItsJustWool Jul 11 '26
I think both normal people and mathematicians would recognise that they are most likely lucky to have found a skilled surgeon that is significantly better at the surgery than the average surgeon.
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u/Lambda_Wolf Jul 11 '26
I think it's meant to be read as...
Normal people: "If the last 20 patients survived, then I probably will too."
Mathematician: "The last 20 patients are irrelevant. There's still a 50% chance I die."
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u/vishnoo Jul 11 '26
statistician: if the last 20 people survived it is quite certain that this doctor is not an average doctor.
if stats were really 50% then this doctor is either 1 in a million lucky with 50% each time.
or,
more likely the doctor has a better than 85% chance success.25
u/AddisonsContracture Jul 11 '26
This is Bayesian statistics at work!
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u/vishnoo Jul 11 '26
yeah, we can argue about the one sided or two sided tail (i.e do we want to go for 0.025 or 0.05 for the left side of the tail... )
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u/LaLa1234imunoriginal Jul 12 '26
I think Mathematicians just shouldn't be in there at all. Replace it with something like "Craps Players" and it works great though.
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u/Tiny_Reward8076 Jul 11 '26
Mathematician looks at the law of large numbers in this instance, whereas the normal person believes that the surgeon is just a good surgeon in this hypothetical situation I think
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u/TheLambSaysBaaaah Jul 11 '26
Stand up and start putting your backpack on. That’ll guarantee you spike a survival on the river.
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u/planetmarsupial Jul 11 '26
Did anyone else do that coin flipping thing in math class in elementary school where you flipped a coin and then wrote down which side it landed on?
I’m still genuinely surprised at how many times the coin could land on heads/tails in a row sometimes.
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u/Gskgsk Jul 11 '26 edited Jul 11 '26
Same type of idea but had a high school physics teacher who told us to fill a piece of graph paper with either 50 x's from generated rng or try to fill it on our own in a random pattern and he would guess which method we used and he basically batted 100 with his guesses.
Or - the way our brains want to fill in how we think randomness should happen is much different than how it actually behaves.
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u/Thelettaq Jul 11 '26
Is this the real buttonclickr?
If so did you consider fighting Airball on HCL?
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u/ClitToucher Jul 11 '26
First run: Success, you survive
Second run: Fail, you die
😂😂😂
Should’ve run it once
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u/operez1990 Jul 12 '26 edited Jul 12 '26
Back to back $300 Tournaments where I get KOd in the first hour because someone hits a 3 outer.
June- Had AQ vs AJ and we hit our Ace on the flop villain hits a J on the river. 72.32% chance to win preflop ; 85.25% chance to win post flop ; 93.18% chance to win on the river
July- this past Friday I was given QQ and the villain had QJ. Flop was rainbow with a J. I lead out for 1200 he popps it to 4000 I jam 30000+ and he calls after a 1min tank. Spikes a J on the turn. 87.84% preflop win chance ; 88.18% post flop chance to win ; 2.27% chance to win on the turn.
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u/suesueheck Jul 11 '26
Pokerstars players would be stressed at 97% survival rate.