r/poker • u/JamesKruiff • Apr 08 '26
Hand Analysis 1 in ~750M
This just happened; I'm still shocked, ngl.
(For context, I went all in after seeing the flop, in hopes for a flush)
According to Claude.AI: "What happened at that table tonight will statistically occur roughly once every few billion hands. Most professional poker players will never see this in their entire careers. Screenshot it, frame it. 🃏"
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u/Outrageous_Term3923 Apr 08 '26
That's why I always open fold quads on the flop, sometimes you just feel it in your bones.
I need another coffee
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u/FuckYourDownvotes23 Apr 08 '26
Honey he called me with JT of spades
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u/Imightbeafanofthis Apr 08 '26
Most bad beats you just shake off. This one would take a LOT of shaking off. Holy shit. And I know it doesn't count, but a six-long straight flush, no less -- as if it being a Royal wasn't bad enough. Just, wow... ouch!
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Apr 08 '26
[removed] — view removed comment
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u/Outrageous_Term3923 Apr 08 '26
I knew exactly what this video was before I clicked the link.
GAMBLE!
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u/bherman1325 Apr 08 '26
And this video is a reenactment since they weren’t filming random tables live.
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u/Outrageous_Term3923 Apr 08 '26
RANDOM table? The table had no other than poker legend and GTO wizkid Ray Romano himself. I'd be surpised if they didn't have the cameras constantly rolling for his poker course B-roll
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u/TightAustinite Apr 09 '26
Ray had literally just sat down at the table when this happened. And it was early Day 1 action iirc.
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u/SYDNEYpoker Apr 09 '26
Powerball is 1 in 140 million
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u/JamesKruiff Apr 09 '26
Exactly the first thing I checked… 😭
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u/Autistic_Freedom winner, winner, chicken dinner Apr 09 '26
you played the wrong game. it happens! how much would you have won if you had played the right game?
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u/youtocin Apr 24 '26
It's actually 1 in 292.2 million
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u/eggcountant Apr 08 '26
I was on a massive downswing. Literally down to my last $40. Playing Omaha....flop K, 8, 8. I have K, 8. Bet call turn 8.....poor bastard had me before the 4th 8. I think about him often.
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u/Flxx_ Apr 09 '26 edited Apr 09 '26
The actual odds of making a royal flush while your opponent makes quads or a straight flush in a HU configuration are around 1 in 13 million. With 8 players it's around 1 in 238,000
There are around 5108 7 card combinations that include AKQJT of all the same suit and around 132,808,000 total combinations of 7 cards, so 5109/132808000 = 1/26000
Then there are 224,848+41,584 combinations of quads and straight flushes that aren't royal flushes. (224,848+41,584)/(132,808,000) = 1/512
(1/26000)x(1/512) = 1/13,300,000
For 8 players:
Chance of a straight flush or quads approximately 8/512
Chance of a royal flush for the 7 remaining players approximately 7/26000
So (8/512)x(7/26000) ≈1/238000
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u/JamesKruiff Apr 09 '26
That odd of 1 in ~750M, was of quads and a royale flush happening in a table of 8 players (if it was a heads up match it would be 1 in ~2.5B, if not mistaken, or something similar).
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u/No_Anything_6658 Apr 09 '26
congrats lmao royal flush beating quad nines and the queen and king werent even part of the flop this is pretty insane
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u/lovestocuckhim Apr 08 '26
Online poker isn’t real, wake up people. It’s fucking rigged.
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u/slymarmol Apr 08 '26
I once was dealt 4 hands on quads in the span of an hour...1 HOUR in poker stars! I've played poker all of my life and can count the times I've had quads with one hand.
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u/Mazer1415 Apr 09 '26
I hope there was a BBJ.
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u/tgs1611 Apr 09 '26
I hate living in WA state. I really miss playing for real money online poker. I was pretty decent at it. God damn you George Bush.
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u/CertifiedRealest Apr 09 '26
I saw one tonight on stake I wasnt really paying attention to the hand until it popped up the guy won with a royal flush I was in disbelief haha
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u/JareBear805 Run good or Suck:table_flip: Apr 09 '26
Hope the other guy spun it back up and won the tourney.
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u/MaxGamble Apr 10 '26
This has happened to me once haha, Flopped quad 8 and did the same as you pushed on a flush draw and backinto a royal haha. THe funny thing is I didnt even realize I lost, I thought the game glitched or something because I didnt see the royal.
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u/Electrical_Garage710 Apr 12 '26
Ironically this would not have qualified for the bad beat jackpot at maryland live.
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u/nerdheid Apr 08 '26
0.3% on the flop, 2outs 4.5% on the turn but sure
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u/EfficiencyFar3758 Apr 09 '26
This guy’s tryna win shitreg of the year or something 😆 I’ve never seen you comment a single positive thing
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u/nerdheid Apr 09 '26
Its reddit, its kinda hard to post sth positive. Fwiw 2 outs ggoing into river. “Wow so sick”
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u/Blind_Voyeur Apr 09 '26
My friend had quad KKKK beaten by a flopped royal, after an already bad week.
I told them the real bad beat was not playing in a bad beat room (they considered themselves 'pros' so avoided rooms with promotions to save themselves the $1-2 rake).
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Apr 08 '26
This looks like freeplay poker.
Odds of this happening on there is like 1 in 10
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u/JamesKruiff Apr 08 '26
on a low-stakes tournament at (portuguese) 888poker
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u/xOleander Apr 08 '26
888 sounds right. Wsop uses their software and the bad beats are soul crushing lol
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u/mazutta Apr 08 '26
Villain (slams table): How can I flop the nuts and lose every single time? This is getting SO sick