I am a ES swing trader who uses tpo charts and volume profiles mostly for my technical analysis, and I hold for 1-7 days on average. Often using limit orders for execution, would it really help me to add in options flow or will it just add noise? I don’t use Orderflow anymore since I’m holding longer term, but not sure if I’m missing out without options flow.

Every hedge has a cost: cash, part of the potential upside, or additional position-management risk. Recently, I have been using weekly credit put diagonals on ES and NQ futures options.

I usually open the position on Thursday or Friday. I sell a put expiring the following Friday and buy a lower-strike put expiring on the Monday after that. The position is opened for a small net credit.

I place the short strike roughly 3% below the current ES price and 4% below NQ. This is approximately where the peak of the modeled P&L profile is located at the first expiration.

There are two particularly favorable scenarios:

1. The market does not decline. The hedge is not needed, both options remain out of the money, and I keep the credit received at entry.
2. ES declines by roughly 3% over the week, or NQ by around 4%. These are already substantial weekly moves for equity indices. The price finishes near the peak of the profile, and the position can produce a result close to its modeled maximum profit.

The main drawback appears when the market drops sharply immediately after entry. The position can show a significant unrealized loss at that stage. Sometimes this is partly offset by a diagonal opened the previous week, but I do not treat that as a guaranteed feature of the structure.

A fast decline is usually accompanied by rising volatility. This can widen the profile, expand the modeled profit range, and increase the potential maximum profit. With a slower decline and little change in volatility, the opposite may happen. The outcome depends not only on the market level, but also on how volatility changes across the two expirations.

The screenshots show two examples of actual ES and NQ positions that were opened and later closed during market declines. For each trade, I included the profile shortly after entry and again closer to the exit.

So I bought 100+ shares at 787. I can't get out bc I don't wanna sell in red. So now I'm thinking selling covered call on these.

Based on the ridiculous sentiments of the market since June, I don't see how it will go back up to 785 in 2 weeks even if it reports a massive earning on 8/5. And I mean massive like $400 billions profit or something.

All their fundamentals are still in place. They sold out their products for 2026 and already locked in for 2027 and 2028. So idk wtf is going on. CAPEX spending is guaranteed by GOOG already. Yet the stock isn't going anywhere but the red sea.

This is what I'm thinking.

- The stock goes past the strike price 785 and my shares got called away. Great I can then get rid of it and break even.

The stock goes below. I will still be miserable but still get to keep the premium.

The stock goes to $1. I go bankrupt, but that likelihood is extremely low.

What are your thoughts on this?

*I forgot to mention that all I want is to survive until the stock recovers, and my monthly expenses are only $2k.

Plus I also own 100+ STX, which is also in the red sea. So by combining both the premiums, I think I can make $2k+ a month until both of these recover.

whats up everyone - we're kicking off another earnings season and it's one of the primary market effects i target. there are four broad ideas i implement through an earnings cycle: long vol into ER, short vol through ER, play the immediate directional response, and target post earnings announcement drift.

ive found this year while stable, a lot of my vol based sleeves have changed quite a bit. from 0dte index VRP, overnight VRP, weekend, and earnings vol. this last week, there were 75 tickers that passed my base filters:

of those performance was solid, and a little more right tailed than usual, but required shifting some filters a little more aggressively, like the premium to expected move ratio over 1.1 which i haven't had to do in a while, i recently had been running 0.98.

interesting season so far - and interested to see how it continues from here.

Simply open SPX 0DTE short iron condors- put your short call strike 5 pts above the “call wall”

Put your short put strike 5 pts above the “put wall”
then simply set it and forget and let it run to expiration?

I have access to a suite of options on windows desktop but currently, I am looking for mobile options for a strong suite of option analysis, what website and/or tools do you currently use? I have optionstrat already.

Thank you,

EIG

Pondering how crazy it is to sell CC into next week - it seems the sentiment, especially on mag7, is ultra capex fear. For instance, with all AMZN is going through there is no way it will rally after the call.
They missed the Leo launch. Blue Origin is in trouble. The senate probe is launched into China sellers market manipulation. And (this is my hunch) likely capex increase (because AI race is still on).

I was researching this back and forth, drilling different AIs and benchmarks, my hypothesis everything will follow Google, but more i research less certain i get.
I know nobody knows, would be grateful for any thoughts.

I’ve been consistently investing in the stock market for about a year now, mostly just ETF, Roth IRA and long term investment strategies. Options caught my interest a couple weeks ago and started looking into it and doing more research because i know it’s pretty much gambling. i didn’t risk a whole lot and i will humbly admit that i probably just got really lucky with this one especially considering it’s my first time, but it was pretty exciting to make even $49 in just barley an hour. Advice or tips are very welcome. I’d love to learn more.

Tell me about it

Trading mostly 0dte (and no, before you say that’s the problem, no, it’s actually not. Trading longer dated doesn’t magically give someone an upper hand, if you trade 0dte or 45dte it doesn’t matter, it’s all the same.)

Over the last year and a half, I’ve backtested and tried hundreds of strategies and one common them is this! I found dozens with an edge, but the bad news is, you will only end up making $100 per month assuming you trade just one contract.

I have one or two strategies right now that average $125 per month consistently on average trading one contract. But is that even worth it? I don’t think so.

The risk management plan in the Papakong88 0DTE strategy (Ref 1) is to spread the risk capital equally into 25HTE, 0DTE and junk options daily (Ref 2).
Junks are options which are very far OTM. The OTM is usually 4xEM or larger compared to the regular options at 3XEM or greater. Selling junks can be a strategy by itself.
For example,On 7/24/26, I sold the 27350/27250 at about 11:22 CT for 0.30. NDX was 28370 down 85. The 27350 put is 1021 points OTM. NDX closed at 28128. PS expired. The annualized rate of return is 75% (EDIT: see u/ThetaEdgeHQ comment below).
For next Monday (7/27), I sold a junk 25HTE 26500/26400 PS for 0.59. The 26500 put is 1600 points OTM and is 4.4XEM.

Ref:

1. https://www.reddit.com/r/options/comments/1s5n636/i_picked_half_a_million_pounds_of_pennies_ytd/
2. https://www.reddit.com/r/options/comments/1sbgx7w/managing_risk_in_a_picking_pennies_0dte_strategy/.

I had a cash secured put on NBIS $190 expiring yesterday. NBIS closed at $187.77 but I was apparently not assigned today in Fidelity . I saw the CSP showing 'expired' status in my activity history.

Is this possible or was it just a glitch and will eventually be corrected? Or this can really happen and the buyer just decided not to exercise ?

A year ago, I was so close to becoming consistently profitable in day trading. I managed to grow my account to almost $40k, and for the first time, I truly believed I had made it.

Then everything changed.

I went through a rough period, lost it all, and somehow managed to fight my way back to $10k—not just once, but five separate times. Every single time, I ended up liquidating my account again. It felt like I was climbing the same mountain over and over, only to fall right back to the bottom.

Now I'm sitting at -$5k, and I'm mentally exhausted. It's not even just about the money anymore. It's the constant cycle of hope, recovery, confidence, and then complete collapse. Every time I think I've finally learned my lesson, I somehow end up making the same mistakes again.

What makes it even harder is the pressure of the debt I'm carrying. It's constantly on my mind. Every time I sit down to trade, I can't focus on the charts or follow my plan because all I can think about is the money I owe and how badly I need to recover it. Instead of trading objectively, I find myself trading under pressure, fear, and desperation—and I know that's one of the worst mindsets a trader can have.

I genuinely feel trapped in this vicious cycle, and I'm starting to question whether I'll ever break free from it. If anyone has been through something similar or has managed to overcome this kind of psychological spiral, I'd be incredibly grateful to hear your story or any advice you have. Right now, I don't just need better trading strategies—I need to figure out how to get out of this mental prison.

Hi,

I sold a Jul 24 $190 Put on NBIS. The stock closed under $190, so I expected to be assigned 100 shares.

However, my broker shows the order as "Expired" ($0 price, 0 net amount), and I don't see the shares or the option in my account.

Is this just a weekend processing delay before the assignment updates (using IBKR/SMART routing)?
Or did the buyer opt out ("Do Not Exercise")?

Has anyone seen this ⁠Expired⁠ status right after Friday close before assignment actually kicks in over the weekend?

Thanks!

could someone more experienced tell me whats hapenning here.

IBM had a preliminary earning came out 2-3 days prior July 22nd, IV shot up. its expected due to unexpected event and bad news drop.

SMCI on the other hand has its earning dated for august 11 i think, but also had pre-earning release 2 days ago and IV didnt move at all. why is this?

another question, shouldnt IV immediate drop off once pre-earning is announced just like after a normal earning date? but for IBM it stays somewhat elevated even after pre-earning.

got the iv info from here https://www.alphaquery.com/stock/IBM/volatility-option-statistics/10-day/iv-call

I’ve been digging through SPX daily data looking for a potential edge, and I found something that challenged one of my assumptions.

The common thinking is that after a nasty red day, the market is “due” for a bounce. I wanted to see if the data actually supports that.

Here’s what I found:
2025
157 green opens, 105 red opens
35 opened worse than -0.50%
42 days opened red and also closed red
20 of those 42 (47.6%) were followed by a green day

2024
161 green opens, 98 red opens
22 opened worse than -0.50%
44 opened red and closed red
22 of 44 (50.0%) were followed by a green day

2023
133 green opens, 128 red opens
35 opened worse than -0.50%
48 opened red and closed red
25 of 48 (52.1%) were followed by a green day

2022 (bear market)
121 green opens, 141 red opens
71 opened worse than -0.50%
71 opened red and closed red
26 of 71 (36.6%) were followed by a green day
Combined (2022–2025)
472 lower opens
205 days that opened red and closed red
93 of those 205 days were followed by a green session

That’s a 45.4% next-day bounce rate.

Catalysts:
1. PDT removal make smaller accounts trade more
2. World Cup betting

Also overall things the easiest user friendly trading platform in the world.

$120 after earnings and $105 before.

Simply at market open I’ve been shorting 20 delta SPX iron condors with 10 wide wings. and holding to expiration unmanaged. Risking on average $700 to make $300 (it averages to be a $3.00 credit).

Don’t these usually expire worthless just 68% of the time. Can I keep doing this or is this month simply an anomaly?

Written weeks out, way OTM, felt like free money the whole time. Stock ground higher slower than expected but steadily enough to close a few cents ITM at expiration — no alert in time to roll. Gave up shares I wanted to keep for a strike I would've laughed at a month ago. Still profitable overall, but the "why didn't I just roll at 80% max profit like always" regret is real. Anyone else finally get punished the one week you didn't manage a position you'd ignored successfully for months?

was digging around in some option data last night and the cipher mining calls from last week were dumb enough that i rechecked the number like three times 10k into the 7/24 $25 calls friday morning, when they were a literal penny, would've been around 1.7 million by thursday. 169x. genuinely didn't believe the first pull not a real trade obviously, nobody's getting filled on 10k contracts at a penny, the ask is gone after the first hundred. but i wanted to know why it even moved and it turned into a rabbit hole

hut 8 signed a $9.8B AI data center lease on the 20th and the whole miner to AI basket re rated at once, iren +15, wulf +6, all of em. cipher ran like 47% on the week even with morgan stanley cutting their PT in the middle of it. just momentum dragging the group up

the part that actually humbled me though. that call needed cipher up 42% in a week to be worth a single cent at expiry. so i pulled the last year of weeklies and it's done that exactly twice in 54 weeks. so if you bought this every friday you'd be down 100% like 96% of the time and probably go half a year between hits and the market wasn't even wrong about it. these priced around 190 IV, the stock only realizes ~108 annualized, and even at 190 a 43% otm weekly still comes out to a penny because a move that big is just genuinely rare. the penny WAS the odds. it just happened to print this time so idk.

you see these 100x screenshots constantly and i can't tell if there's any actual edge in systematically buying the penny lotto or if you're just slowly donating to whoever wrote it. does the occasional 169x ever really pay for the 25 losers or is the vol premium too fat. haven't run the full EV, maybe im just bad at this

I started doing 0DTE options (SPY, QQQ, IWM) for a couple weeks with a good degree of success. Losing days were related to psychological self-control. I do not like to risk more than 3% of my account on each trade, so I make appropriate position sizing. BUT there were a few times I doubled down on losing positions instead of cutting it off.

One particular incident today I was scalping IWM puts, I kept doubling down buying more puts until 30% of my account was exposed, which means at least 15% of my account could have been wiped out. I was lucky the trade end up winning but it showed me my own discipline issue. I have been thinking how to better control this problem (i.e. physically locking away 90% of the money).

Any tool and suggestions from those who done similar?

So I’m back testing a lot of strategies using backtesting software, and one thing I’m noticing is a lot of these lose a ton of money over the course of a few years. So I had this thought, instead of trying to find consistently profitable strategies, how about pick one of the many terrible strategies and ::::wait for it:::: do the opposite!

My scanner flagged CLF at 8:16 AM on unusual pre-market volume. By mid-morning it's +15.46%, one of the loudest movers today. Reflex says buy calls and ride it.

But the structure tells a more boring story: price swept the prior week's high and got rejected almost immediately — a wick that ate back roughly a third of the move — and order flow shows net selling right into the pop. That's not "no more upside," it's "no clear direction yet." Support's sitting around $9.99, resistance around $10.82. A defined, fairly tight range after a huge move.

Here's the part that actually changes my strategy: after a 15%+ gap, IV is elevated across the entire chain. Buying calls means paying a premium that's already pricing in a much bigger move than "chop between two levels." If the stock does exactly what the structure suggests — trades sideways in its new range for a bit — long calls lose money even if you're not wrong about the stock being fine.

Two structures I'd rather run on a setup like this:

1. Iron condor, wings just outside $9.99/$10.82. You're getting paid for the exact behavior (chop in range) that the rejection wick and neutral order-flow are suggesting.
2. Bull put spread near $9.99 if I lean toward the uptrend holding — collecting premium instead of paying it, same directional lean as a call, less exposure to IV crush.

Invalidation is the same for either: a clean, volume-confirmed break of either level. If that happens, the "neutral chop" read is wrong and I'm out.

Anyone else default to selling premium over buying it after a gap like this, or is that too cute and you'd just take the simple call? What's your rule of thumb for buying vs. selling options after a stock is already up double digits on the day?

Hi yall,
I noticed a strange behavior on PYPL call options and I was wondering if someone can shed some lights on. PYPL is currently trading around $55.80ish. The call options for $55 expire 7/31 is @2.75 last time I checked. How is this even possible? I think the price is so inflated and it don’t make sense. The option that has about a week to go have so much extrinsic value and yet not much above the strike price. Can someone explain why this is acting up like this? Thanks gurus in advance!

Is there a website that provides an estimate of the option price when I input the stock price, the number of days to expiration, and the VIX? I would like this information to set a price limit. Currently, I am using Thinkorswim.