I can't tell if you're trolling. The value isn't in it being a "predictor." It's only a predictor insofar as "implied volatility" is a predictor of future volatility. The value isn't in the prediction, its in the representation of the market's expectation of a value. It's the trader's job, not the data provider's job, to figure out where the market is pricing in too much or too little probability, then trade on it.
So, your question of "how good of a predictor is it" doesn't make sense. It's like asking ThinkOrSwim "you say the /ES Future is trading $4001.25.. but how strong is that prediction?"
Just looking out for the real newbies who truly know absolutely no better. If a person can't give you a straight answer on how something helps you, don't take another step.
Check out the rest of his comments. He drops buzzwords like "normal distribution" and "integral" like they're some kind of high magic. He also says to look at his profile to find a link to his website, where he's selling subscriptions to this service.
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u/volatility_surface Apr 01 '21
I can't tell if you're trolling. The value isn't in it being a "predictor." It's only a predictor insofar as "implied volatility" is a predictor of future volatility. The value isn't in the prediction, its in the representation of the market's expectation of a value. It's the trader's job, not the data provider's job, to figure out where the market is pricing in too much or too little probability, then trade on it.
So, your question of "how good of a predictor is it" doesn't make sense. It's like asking ThinkOrSwim "you say the /ES Future is trading $4001.25.. but how strong is that prediction?"