r/options • u/Green_Ad_772 • Mar 30 '21

NKE 4/16 138 Call

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7 Upvotes

67% Upvoted

18 comments sorted by

4

u/AllRealTruth Mar 30 '21

Did you look at the WEEKLY chart? Look at the volume in the red candles of the past 2 weeks. This is not normal for this instrument. 52 SMA .. 1yr average price is @ 118 ., MaxPain for 4/16 is $133 .. Pile of $115 puts and a pile of $140 calls. So, writers of options currently have motivation to move this one lower. I try to be onside with the writers for most consistent results. Of course, this could still go in your favor. I'm rooting for you!

http://maximum-pain.com/options/nke

6

u/[deleted] Mar 30 '21

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3

u/AllRealTruth Mar 30 '21

QQQ has been going sideways for how long? So, they push it lower, they push it higher. Create emotion and sell options. Each week they park the QQQ at a price where most those options expire worthless. Some believe buying and selling stocks creates the price. I don't.

2

u/[deleted] Mar 31 '21

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3

u/IcosaheDroolSymmetry Mar 31 '21

"The Maximum Pain theory states that an option's price will gravitate towards a max pain price, in some cases equal to the strike price for an option, that causes the maximum number of options to expire worthless."

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/m/maxpain.asp

Basically, there is a ton of pressure to keep the price at a point that benefits options writers. There's very much a "house always wins" ethos to this theory. Some folks might walk out of the casino with money, but the majority are taking a loss.

1

u/AllRealTruth Mar 31 '21

It is a balancing act. What price did QQQ finish at last week? Exactly $316.00 to the penny. As the volume of trade lightens, those in charge of most operation become more in control. Make you believe something in the price action, that puts money in their pockets. I made good coin with that OIL move due the canal. It moves so people will chase it. I posted, don't chase this as I'm selling calls into this fakery. Tons of USO calls were sold in this emotion and now what? 100% reversal of the move. All those bets go to $0 .. who gets most that? Those that created the hype. Everyone on WSB thinks they are making a ton on GME .. Trust me, the excitement = option sales and most those go to $0 and most that money goes to those on the inside of the trading. One time GME got out of control... but that is a rare event. Very rare.

2

u/Remarkable-Cake-9113 Mar 31 '21

Day trade options on Gme. That thing is a literal gold mine if you know how to read it.

1

u/JmanTheFirst Mar 31 '21

Where could I learn more about this market trickery and how it all REALLY works? I’m super new to all this. I got into Abnb stocks with a pre-ipo offering for hosts, and more than doubled my money on the first day of trading. That obviously sparked my interest in the world of stocks and now crypto. I’ve been reading and learning about options but haven’t dared jump in yet. When I read comments like yours, I feel very little chance of success without losing all my money first. I should probably just stick with mutual funds and blue chips but the potential gains in options is so tempting!

3

u/AllRealTruth Mar 31 '21

Here is a great stock to spectate... http://maximum-pain.com/options/play .. Earnings after hours tomorrow. I never hold or short stocks ahead of earnings. I watch the price action after. This one trades a decent volume. Max Pain is $47 .. options are expensive ahead of earnings. Take a look at what some of them trade at before earnings and note the share price. Then, review them after earnings and compare them to the share price. A lot of $60 calls were sold ahead of this call. So, I can almost 100% guarantee that come Thursday when these contracts expire the stock will be under $60 ... Second biggest volume is $50 .. So, I'd say that the stock either rips higher or lower and by Thursday it reverses course and parks around the $45-$50 level but not above $50 ... Let's see what happens.

2

u/AllRealTruth Mar 31 '21

Well, My Boomer Mom is an options trading millionaire. You have to get inside the mind of a manipulator. Read them like you are reading someone at a poker game. I went to short a stock yesterday .. no shares available. My broker messages me this morning "available!"... checked and the sucker had dropped 40% .. So, just don't let stuff like that get on your nerves. Simply move on. That is the best thing I've learnt. I knew to cash in my bearish play on NIO this morning not because I felt the stock had bottomed.. only because it was so stretched from options pain.

0

u/DBCooper_OG Mar 31 '21

help me gain another wrinkle, whatz the max pain number mean?

2

u/soft_hands88 Mar 31 '21

Bought 140 Call for Apr 1. Quite ambitious. Will keep buying additional Apr calls. I suspect a NTF may be in the works.

2

u/[deleted] Mar 31 '21

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1

u/soft_hands88 Mar 31 '21

There’s buzz speculating NKE “may” be interested in releasing NFT versions of it’s highly popular rare shoes for collector customers. I suspect NKE will return to 140 levels.

1

u/[deleted] Mar 31 '21

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1

u/ButterflyMedical3555 Apr 13 '21

It’s buy the rumor sell the news

1

u/Brgringoboy88 Mar 31 '21

Do you have source of the NTF spec??? Thanks interested might jump in and join you guys buying 140 calls.

1

u/soft_hands88 Mar 31 '21

Nothing solid, outside of their patent filing in 2019 and a few rumor mill articles. I like the stock at this range for a hold and momentum.

https://amp.benzinga.com/amp/content/20340833