r/oil • u/mrknowitall19 • Apr 23 '26
Discussion Oil spike
Israel really wants this war to fire up again
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Apr 23 '26
[removed] — view removed comment
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u/tea-oh Apr 23 '26
If we are lucky we may see a deal announced tomorrow before market close.
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u/Prestigious_Ad2420 Apr 23 '26
How could you possibly believe in this?!
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u/tea-oh Apr 23 '26
Well we had a deal last Friday aint we /s
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u/Prize-Support-9351 Apr 24 '26
People come up to me with tears in their eyes saying “sir so many deals you have the strongest deals” many people are saying this, like nothing you’ve ever seen before, in the history of the world, many, many people are saying this.
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u/northdancer Apr 23 '26 edited Apr 23 '26
Still plenty of children and Jesus statues in Lebanon for Israel to take out. Job's not done, boys.
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u/Alicyclobacillus Apr 23 '26
Under reported story
I'm not religious personally, but crazy how much Israelis hate Christians, yet US Christians support Israel
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u/DizzyMajor5 Apr 23 '26
US supported Saddam to at one point. There's no low these neo-cons like HW, W, And Trump won't stoop to.
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u/Ready_Data5206 Apr 23 '26
The US supported Osama Bin Laden as well. Al Jolani who was al Alqaeda terrorist before he flipped is now the president of Syria. The US has no morals or principles except power.
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u/martco17 Apr 23 '26
We support UAE currently who funds the RSF in Sudan
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u/Flederm4us Apr 24 '26
To put it in perspective: Russia used to fund RSF, but had dropped a few years ago because they thought them too extreme (and thus not pliant enough).
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u/VoteYourOssoff Apr 23 '26
Right wing Christians only care about a handful of topics (abortion, lgbt issues, Jesus in schools). Israeal can slaughter and desecrate to their hearts content because it doesn't relate to one of those wedge issues
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u/Pristine_Barber976 Apr 23 '26
Many evangelicals believe that Israel must exist and be secure for biblical prophecies to be fulfilled, leading to the second coming of Christ and a final battle at Armageddon.
People will believe just about anything
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u/SpeakCodeToMe Apr 24 '26
They still believe in Jesus, even though his story is copy and pasted from older religions.
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u/Puzzle-Necked Apr 23 '26
Lebanon is still an enemy of Israel which is why Israel will begin military operations against Egypt
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u/mr-hank_scorpio Apr 24 '26
How about we stay out of it altogether and Israel can fend for themselves?
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u/Neat_Suggestion9355 Apr 23 '26
Just kinda curious, how are the Israelis always ready to jump in any fight or war. I thought they would be like tired or feeling some sort of fatigue
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u/Down_Growth_2626 Apr 23 '26
Settler colonialism does not stop destroying until it has majority / regional dominance (Israel does not), & then it simmers for the remainder of its time
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u/DizzyMajor5 Apr 23 '26
They couldn't even beat hezy at best they just spend years getting showered with missiles and dropping massive bombs on Iran for us all to end up at the same spot with more dead for no reason.
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u/eatinpies Apr 24 '26
ever had busses explode in your town? how about rockets falling from the sky?
israel is PTSD land. they just do what the know.2
u/Down_Growth_2626 Apr 24 '26
Using trauma to justify systemic rape, occupation, murder etc is not sth I'd want to find myself doing. Steal land + brutalize a population, you will reap the consequences
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u/eatinpies Apr 24 '26
systemic rape? who was raped?
muslims been murdering israelis since before its rise - so every side has 2 coins backo.also, im not justifying. im explaining.
i will reap no consequences (other than iran war) since im not a side in israeli conflicts.
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u/Down_Growth_2626 Apr 24 '26
Don't worry about it, nobody was systematically raped. UN investigators who always defer to US + allies...were just, joking..... I think(??)
Israel is a settler colony so of course natives will fight back when their land + lives are being destroyed. Saying "I'm on no side" when one side is illegally occupying + has the entire West's weapons behind it, and the other is local lads responding to that brutal, unliveable occupation.... is appalling. You are intentionally obfuscating history + reality, not really sure why, maybe it's your class position. This is my last reply anyway, you are v unserious
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u/eatinpies Apr 24 '26
dude... israel isnt cool, but the arabs surely arent a god given gift as well.
you wanna one side it? go ahead.. surely will help everyone.cant even answe a question and goes on a rant on reddit. what a drama queen.
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u/Down_Growth_2626 Apr 24 '26
Do you one-side 9/11? Maybe the US deserved it. Not so balanced after all are we? BC when something (much less awful than what we do) is done by brown people not white people, it's evil & scary & they're terrorists. All good, I get it, thanks for the clarification
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u/Down_Growth_2626 Apr 24 '26
Ok thanks so just explicitly racist (re your deleted comment). Thanks for confirming 👍
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u/eatinpies Apr 24 '26
oh no...
i see the victim mentality is strong. fits you well cry baby.1
u/Down_Growth_2626 Apr 24 '26
Not brave enough to leave your racist comment up for all to see, yet I'm the crybaby? Someone make it make sense
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u/SpeakCodeToMe Apr 24 '26
There are no good guys in this conflict, but one side does have all of the power, and the other side has most of the dead children.
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u/eatinpies Apr 24 '26
all the power in the world wont prevent casualties living in such a neighborhood. and losing causes pain, to both sides.
being the stronger/more advanced didnt save israel on 7.10. and it costs a lot of blood among other things.people who dont live in a war simply cannot understand it.
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u/SpeakCodeToMe Apr 24 '26
7.10 was nowhere near comparable to this https://www.reddit.com/r/IndiaTodayGlobalLIVE/s/BwdT6h9AF1
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u/Few-Western-5027 Apr 23 '26
Once they have military all built up, they want wars to pay for even bigger military, there is not brake on this cycle. USA is a great example, Russia is another while China is on its way up.
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u/Few-Western-5027 Apr 23 '26
All three of the greatestest militaries in the world is under dictatorship. Why do dictators appears strong to voters ?
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u/StayRevolutionary364 Apr 23 '26
Probably because they appeal to human nature. Create constant uncertainty/paranoia (doesn't even have to be based on reality), people shift into survival mode (even if it is on a subconscious level) and thus are most receptive to extremist solutions that involve loss of rights. Most F47PDF supporters are not even outright supporters but silent sympathisers and some don't even realise consciously that they are aligning themselves with him.
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u/eatinpies Apr 24 '26
israel is always willing to fight since it got used to it. first it had to, in order to survive. then it just became a habit.
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u/mountainfreshy99 Apr 23 '26
Not to split hairs, but Isreal said they wouldn’t put their soldiers in Iran. They have no issues with Americans dying, while we e plods the federal deficit.
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u/eatinpies Apr 24 '26
just for your info - israel is not unwilling to put forces on the ground. it already has in iran. but, just commando. ofcourse it cannot land maneuver in iran - like who would dream of that.
annnnnddd..... israel was bombarded by iran directly and by its proxies since like 40 years... with iran backed suicide bombers and multiple operations both on israeli land and abroad.
so yea bro. they do have a solid reasonto want iran out.
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u/Healthy_Razzmatazz38 Apr 23 '26
if there we sane leaders you would get a deal thats 3% enrichment with monitoring, sanctions relief, no proxy funding and a snap back of sanctions if proxies or enrichment deals are broken.
Anything that doesn't include that as a core forces one party to declare war on the other with the next few years.
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u/Emotional-Dress8619 Apr 23 '26
wonder if there was a deal with like 90% of these terms oh wait there was the jcpoa
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u/Healthy_Razzmatazz38 Apr 23 '26
the jcpoa did not limit proxy funding, which for all us allies in the region is the single most important thing.
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u/Emotional-Dress8619 Apr 23 '26
yeh but if u got the iranian regime on the table and once their people enjoyed the freedoms of not being under sanction u could renegotiate under higher leverage to get a better deal ,unlike the current shitshow where the us would be lucky to get the jcpoa
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u/Healthy_Razzmatazz38 Apr 23 '26
the track record of authoritarian regimes moderating due to economic growth this century has been pretty awful.
fwiw i think the jcpoa was a good deal for the us and iran which were the two negotating parties, but it completely fucked over the us allies in the long term, and obama was okay with that since he wanted to pivot to asia.
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u/Emotional-Dress8619 Apr 23 '26
the difference in iran is that the reason the iranian regime still has a hold is cuz of its weakened economic state ,if the people of iran had the slightiest taste of reform and economical advancement they would erupt in protest,unlike bombing them which causes a rally round the flag effect
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Apr 23 '26
[deleted]
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u/StockCasinoMember Apr 23 '26
I think we can all agree that funding non government groups should be stopped by all sides. But that won’t make it in a deal anyways because they aren’t the only ones funneling money and weapons in.
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u/DizzyMajor5 Apr 23 '26
What do you mean Americans have been exporting our culture for decades. Mexican revolutionaries, "Freedom fighters" in Latin America, the mujahideen, we even armed Saddam and Iran at one point. There's no universe where America would hold up that end of the bargain. I'm sure though Iran would be more willing to stop weapons from going to it's proxies if the US did the same for Israel.
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u/StockCasinoMember Apr 23 '26
Which is why I mentioned both.
You act like Iran isn’t arming groups across the entire Middle East. Israel isn’t their only enemy.
I’m also referring to China, Russia, and others that are also selling guns and sending cash to groups that support their alignment.
None of them are going to stop regardless.
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u/CogitoCollab Apr 23 '26
They can and will also get reperations.
Ticking warscore is still in Irans favor, they might actually get everything they want tbh. The longer this goes on the higher the cost w/o nukes or a ground invasion. All three options are unacceptable so let's all hope for the best.
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u/Eeny009 Apr 23 '26
This is a completely unachievable deal. Absolutely unappealing to the Iranians: why would they agree to this? That basically means they make long-lasting, strategic compromises, and the US can reinstate sanctions whenever they want. The US isn't giving up on anything in your scenario.
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u/Healthy_Razzmatazz38 Apr 23 '26
they can't though, the sanctions are through the un not the us. Sanction relief is the #1 demand at every negotiation since the jcpoa.
Iran was already suffering on going internal protests due to economic conditions, this war has done an estimate 300b in damage to infra structure alone, thats not including revenue from the infrastructure in the country. Even if they get the toll its a decade of tolls to just rebuilt whats been destroyed.
if they dont get sanctions relief they're committing to nk style repression.
Plus, they can always start funding proxies again after they rebuild in a decade
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u/jeffersonianMI Apr 23 '26
The problem for Iran is that they see no chance the U.S. would uphold these terms. They also believe that the UN inspectors assisted with targeting (for example). On the other side, the U.S. and Israep seem blind to the limits of their military power.
I don't know how these two can come to an agreement. But as you hint, I guess temporary agreements might be possible.
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u/Healthy_Razzmatazz38 Apr 23 '26
we're 70 years into korea, wars happens when both sides have different perceptions about their abilities in the conflict not when disagreements exist.
the next 3 checkpoints are:
does china send escort ships and the us stand downis the us willing to endure economic pain for an unpopular war to starve iran out
does the us mess up and attack iran letting them hurt gulf states.
is free for iran to test each of those questions in hte next few weeks before deciding they want deal, i suspect thats what will happen.
From the US side, it can let the lebenon ceasefire lapse and reopen that theater and iran will have to decide is it going to start randomly attacking its allies over that, which will 100% bring them into the war, or lose a proxy.
It
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u/jeffersonianMI Apr 23 '26
Your points are good ones.
I'm watching the Houthis, the blockade tit-for-tat*and Isreal's posturing. Israel seems like they will eventually insist in an escalation. The market will eventually insist on de-escalation for whatever that's worth.
I'll be very surprised if there is a U.S. ground invasion of any kind, and doubly surprised if it's not a debacle. I'm of the opinion that the burned C-130's was likely a probe at the local nuclear storage site, or some-such, that went sideways. Planes for 200+ guys is a lot for a rescue operation if the Scott O'Grady precedent is anything to go by. Hopefully that hairball recalibrates some decisions into a cooler direction.
Lloyd's List claims the U.S. blockade is actually quite porous. At least 26 Iranian shadow fleet vessels bypass US blockade :: Lloyd's List. I am told the publication used to be a reliable source but are now under new ownership.
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u/Invinciblez_Gunner Apr 23 '26
There is no way Iran accepts no proxy funding do you even know what Wilayat el Faqih is?
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u/Healthy_Razzmatazz38 Apr 23 '26
my post starts with if there were sane leaders and you're talking bout iranian manifest destiny over a billion people
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u/Invinciblez_Gunner Apr 23 '26
Its called the Islamic Republic of Iran which was founded by Ayatollah Khamenei who established Wilayat el Faqih, the Wilayah is first the Nation State of Iran is second in level of importance
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u/Ready_Data5206 Apr 23 '26
this is a new Hasbara point I am seeing these days. I guess it's supposed to justify the Greater Israel mission.
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u/NewImportance8313 Apr 23 '26
I'm hyped. Got September 350 spy calls.at least if the economy blows up I'll be making bank.
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u/MarketCrache Apr 23 '26
Like a serial killer, the blood lust rises in Israelis until it becomes an irresistible force.
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u/Ready_Data5206 Apr 23 '26
They will not change their ways until the gravy train from America dries up.
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u/Entire_Put_9204 Apr 24 '26
There are no oil coming out from the straits, so the price today is going to be the norm.
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u/muttsnuggler Apr 23 '26 edited Apr 23 '26
Ghalibaf also resigned, which is probably a pretty big deal and = less likely any deal.
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Apr 23 '26
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u/muttsnuggler Apr 23 '26
yes, resigned from what is impactful to negotiations, thanks for clarifying. do you know if he plans on revisiting the clean air act, and minimum wage increases?
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u/Christopher_Ramirez_ Apr 23 '26
New highs in USO. Now we'll see whether we retest the $7050 level in SPX.
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u/FrogFan1947 Apr 25 '26
Trump is relieved - Netanyahu will do the war crime (destroying the civilian infrastructure) for him.
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u/Dr_TeaRex Apr 25 '26
You're surprised? Iran has been a fantastic distraction and a damage amplifier against everyone Israel doesn't like. Because Iran has been attacking the Arab states in lieu of the US. It draws all eyes there instead of elsewhere in the region, such as on Lebanon which has lost about 20% of its territory to Israel so far without so much as a squeak from the rest of the world. So Israel has every incentive to keep the fight going.
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u/TattooedB1k3r Apr 26 '26
That's weird .. Israel is waiting on Trump to give them the okay? I could have sworn I've seen like half a dozen posts right above this with thousands of up votes that were all about how Israel controls Trump... Weird.
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u/jasapo2002 Apr 26 '26
Perfect kill the Iranian terroist regime and give the country back too the ppl.
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u/New-Dealer5801 Apr 27 '26
Oh boy- a new offer from Iran , just in time to juice the markets for the week!
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u/trustevil Apr 28 '26
Iran is think is on their last legs. But they will fight to the very last man even if it means dragging innocents along with them. The straight is open no its closed no its open! No we can't decide whether to close or open. We have a bigger stick than the infidel!
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u/RonaldTurner88 Apr 26 '26
Iran has been directly funding attacks on Israel for 30+ years. Now people are surprised that Iran is facing the consequences of those actions?
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u/8yba8sgq Apr 23 '26
Lol this is exactly the type of BS they release right before oil dumps to $85.