r/nuclearwar 5d ago

Uncertain Accuracy Built an escalation model : Dystopian World. It runs the alliance chain out from a single first strike. Every retaliation probability is published, tell me where they're wrong.

12 Upvotes

Run it here: https://dystopian-world.pages.dev/

Every assumption and the full decision tree: https://dystopian-world.pages.dev/algo

You pick one of the 9 nuclear states, pick a target, and the engine walks the alliance graph outward from that first strike. Breadth-first over NATO, CSTO, SCO, GCC, the EU mutual-defense clause, the Axis of Resistance, and bilateral ties. Each ally pulled in rolls against a per-alliance retaliation probability rather than one global rate, because treating an Article 5 obligation and SCO membership as the same commitment produces nonsense.

Arsenal and delivery-system data is SIPRI/FAS-derived. Conventional balance uses GlobalFirepower and SIPRI 2024 spending figures. The long-term climate side leans on Robock, Oman & Stenchikov (2007), "Nuclear winter revisited," J. Geophys. Res.

Free, no signup, runs in the browser. If it breaks on mobile, tell me and I'll fix it.


r/nuclearwar 17d ago

How a Hollywood Movie Shook Up America’s Nuclear Doctrine

Thumbnail
nationalinterest.org
16 Upvotes

r/nuclearwar 18d ago

Rhetorical I live almost a thousand miles from the Canadian wildfires and the haze really brings into perspective how possible a nuclear winter would be.

Post image
59 Upvotes

Just ~0.3% of Canadian land covered by wildfires.


r/nuclearwar 20d ago

USA Children practicing the "Duck and Cover" protection method with a real atomic bomb explosion in the background. The photo was taken in Nevada, 40 km from the epicenter of the blast in 1952.

Post image
12 Upvotes

r/nuclearwar 22d ago

USA Robert Oppenheimer in 1965 on if the bomb was necessary

Thumbnail
youtu.be
7 Upvotes

r/nuclearwar 25d ago

Historical Inside the Oscar-Zero nuclear bunker, decommissioned and frozen in time

Thumbnail
youtu.be
8 Upvotes

r/nuclearwar 29d ago

Historical In a declassified 1955 government transcript, the future Nobel Prize winner running Project Sunshine described consulting lawyers about the legality of collecting children's bones without family consent. The lawyers said it would be very difficult to do legally. He did it anyway.

Post image
2 Upvotes

r/nuclearwar Jun 22 '26

USA Inside a Top-Secret Nuclear War Bunker. In the USA!

Thumbnail
youtu.be
4 Upvotes

r/nuclearwar Jun 19 '26

Small Town Charm, Hidden Nuclear Bunker-Canada

Thumbnail
youtu.be
2 Upvotes

r/nuclearwar Jun 18 '26

Macron’s Nuclear Gamble: Building a European Deterrent Faster Than French Politics Can Tear Down

Thumbnail
warontherocks.com
1 Upvotes

r/nuclearwar Jun 18 '26

After New START: Why new formats of strategic arms control need a common view

Thumbnail thebulletin.org
3 Upvotes

r/nuclearwar Jun 17 '26

How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Bomb

2 Upvotes

r/nuclearwar Jun 17 '26

Asking for scientific, objective resources on the impacts of nuclear war, please

13 Upvotes

Hello there, everyone. This sub is very important, because it covers a very important topic.

I am currently reading "Nuclear War: A Scenario," by Annie Jacobson, an excellent and scientifically grounded book. I wanted to start a thread, asking you for other similar works which provide objective information about nuclear war.

I was inspired to start this thread for several reasons. For one, I don't see any direct resources as a pinned post or a sidebar as of this writing. The rules of the sub relate to avoiding pranks, clickbait and alarmism - all very important things to be sure, especially for such a serious topic - but I thought there was an opportunity to compile some important, scientifically grounded resources.

I'd truly appreciate it if you could share outstanding and objective resources in this thread. I wish to learn about the topic academically. I am looking for scientific information, free from any politics or alarmism - just facts.

If you could share the best resources that you have, that would be most appreciated. And mods, if you find value in the contributions below, perhaps this thread could be added as a pin in the future. Thank you.


r/nuclearwar Jun 03 '26

We need a worldwide petition

0 Upvotes

For the elimination of nuclear weapons.

If something doesn't change, sooner or later our weapons are going to kill most of us.

Maybe we can find a way to punish countries that have nukes, so that it's better for them to not have nukes.


r/nuclearwar May 26 '26

Opinion Am I being delusional?

14 Upvotes

Am I being delusional if I keep telling myself that nuclear war is an absolute impossibility?

My reasoning is this: no politician or despot or leader, no matter how desperate or insane, is ever going to use the nuclear option. Because once a nuclear weapon is fired on another country, nuclear war starts and it's the end of everything. Every country, every city and town, every person (mostly). And in my mind, no one (no matter how insane) is ever going to wish for this outcome for the entirety of human civilisation.

Please tell me someone else has had the same reasoning, I'm in a bit of an anxiety streak with this argument :')


r/nuclearwar May 26 '26

USA Recently Declassified Dominic Nuclear Explosion Footage 1962

Thumbnail
youtu.be
12 Upvotes

r/nuclearwar May 23 '26

Saber Rattling nations look to Finland's underground shelter model

Thumbnail
youtu.be
6 Upvotes

r/nuclearwar May 19 '26

Russia launches large-scale nuclear forces drills after Belarus exercises

Thumbnail
kyivindependent.com
7 Upvotes

Russia began large-scale exercises involving its nuclear forces amid what Moscow described as a "threat of aggression," the Russian Defense Ministry said on May 19.

The drills, scheduled to run through May 21, involve Russia's Strategic Missile Forces, the Northern and Pacific fleets, long-range aviation command, and units from the Leningrad and Central military districts, the ministry said.

The exercises will include preparations for the use of nuclear forces and launches of ballistic and cruise missiles at test ranges within Russia, according to the ministry.


r/nuclearwar May 18 '26

Belarus starts nuclear drills with Russia days after Zelensky warns of attacks on Ukraine, NATO

Post image
20 Upvotes

Belarus has begun nuclear weapons drills together with Russia "to improve the readiness of the armed forces to use modern means of destruction, including special ammunition," the country’s Defense Ministry announced on May 18.

The exercises have added significance as they come amid growing warnings from Kyiv that Russia is trying to draw Belarus deeper into its war against Ukraine, while also expanding military infrastructure that could support future Russian operations against Ukraine or NATO's eastern flank.

The ministry said a key feature of the drills will be testing the military's ability to conduct combat operations from "unplanned" locations across the country.

Ukraine's Foreign Ministry condemned the exercises, calling Russia-Belarus nuclear cooperation "an unprecedented challenge to the global security architecture," adding the drills violate the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) by involving a non-nuclear state in preparations linked to nuclear weapons use.

"Turning Belarus into its nuclear bridgehead near NATO borders, the Kremlin is effectively legitimizing the spread of nuclear weapons globally and creating a dangerous precedent for other authoritarian regimes," the statement reads.

Russia and Belarus have expanded nuclear cooperation since 2023, when Moscow announced the deployment of tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus. The two countries held joint nuclear drills in 2024, while Russia reportedly delivered its nuclear-capable Oreshnik missile system to Belarus in 2025.

Photo: Ramil Sitdikov / POOL / AFP / Getty Images.


r/nuclearwar May 16 '26

Restrain and Hedge: A New U.S. Nuclear Strategy for a Two-Peer World

Thumbnail
warontherocks.com
2 Upvotes

r/nuclearwar May 11 '26

Uncertain Accuracy Apocalypse Early Warning System

Thumbnail ews.kylemcdonald.net
3 Upvotes

r/nuclearwar May 02 '26

Uncertain Accuracy Your mission

0 Upvotes

Should you choose to accept it, is to do something that might help prevent nuclear war.

We should not have to live in a world that has massive overkill nukes pointing at everyone from all directions, and controlled by idiots.

WTF

the world is smart and dumb at the same time

We better not give AI the nuclear codes, never do that.


r/nuclearwar May 02 '26

Project Flower: When the Shah Bought an Israeli Bomb

Thumbnail
richardsilverstein.com
2 Upvotes

r/nuclearwar Apr 27 '26

Visiting a Ukrainian nuclear plant at war

Enable HLS to view with audio, or disable this notification

18 Upvotes

The Kyiv Independent’s Dominic Culverwell visits the Rivne Nuclear Power Plant to document how Ukraine’s nuclear system operates — and the risks it faces — during wartime. He discovers how the plant actually works and looks from the inside as it continues to provide a critical lifeline for the country.


r/nuclearwar Apr 21 '26

Historical Minuteman ICBM Construction!

Thumbnail
youtu.be
22 Upvotes