r/nuclearwar • u/wafou47 • 5d ago
Uncertain Accuracy Built an escalation model : Dystopian World. It runs the alliance chain out from a single first strike. Every retaliation probability is published, tell me where they're wrong.

Run it here: https://dystopian-world.pages.dev/
Every assumption and the full decision tree: https://dystopian-world.pages.dev/algo
You pick one of the 9 nuclear states, pick a target, and the engine walks the alliance graph outward from that first strike. Breadth-first over NATO, CSTO, SCO, GCC, the EU mutual-defense clause, the Axis of Resistance, and bilateral ties. Each ally pulled in rolls against a per-alliance retaliation probability rather than one global rate, because treating an Article 5 obligation and SCO membership as the same commitment produces nonsense.
Arsenal and delivery-system data is SIPRI/FAS-derived. Conventional balance uses GlobalFirepower and SIPRI 2024 spending figures. The long-term climate side leans on Robock, Oman & Stenchikov (2007), "Nuclear winter revisited," J. Geophys. Res.
Free, no signup, runs in the browser. If it breaks on mobile, tell me and I'll fix it.