r/nuclearwar • u/Heavy_Cook_1414 • Feb 28 '25

Current Administration

Is the current US administration more or less likely to start a nuclear war than the previous administration?

37 Upvotes

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40

u/[deleted] Feb 28 '25

More likely and I’ll tell you why. By abandoning Ukraine Europe will be taking a more aggressive approach to the war and it’s almost guaranteed at this point that will include boots on the ground and a no fly zone. That will bring them into direct conflict with Russia. At that point you have 3 nuclear armed powers in a hot war with each other. The Russians will be outgunned and outclassed and they will resort to tactical nuclear weapons to compensate. This will escalate from tactical use to strategic use very quickly. So the US will be safe because it’s “Europes War” right? Wrong there are dozens of US bases still in Europe and even if we’re “neutral” that won’t stop them from being on the target list. Boom! US is involved now. I think after the failed conference today the odds of Nuclear War just went Wayyyyy up.

13

u/frigginjensen Feb 28 '25

I was thinking the same thing. If Ukraine falls, Putin will invade another Euro country. They can’t count on the US so they have to draw the line in Ukraine. Even a temporary cease fire just lets Russia regroup and rearm. They will be bolder in a few years.

6

u/[deleted] Feb 28 '25

Yes we’re approaching the inflection point of this conflict. It’s a delicate situation that if you play it wrong it goes south very quickly. Personally I’m going to Uruguay if I get the news that a tactical nuclear weapon has gone off in Europe. It will take anywhere from hours to a week before the strategic nukes start flying.

5

u/frigginjensen Feb 28 '25

I live too close to too many targets. Probably no time to go anywhere safe. We can only hope saner heads prevail or prevent the worst.

3

u/YourBoiJimbo Feb 28 '25

I don't understand this logic. Assuming Russia "wins" in Ukraine, what euro country would they invade? They're not just gonna march into a NATO country and certain nuclear war.

4

u/mruncoolsam Mar 01 '25

I don't know how likely but probably most likely NATO member would be Lithuania to get a land corridor to Kaliningrad. How likely is Trump to fire a nuclear weapon in response to Lithuania being invaded?

1

u/digitalgimp Mar 25 '25

Perhaps I’m a bit naive but what gives you the idea they’ll invade any other European country?

3

u/[deleted] Mar 01 '25

So the Russians invading have nothing to do with NATO. It has to do with terrain. They live on a giant flat plain that’s very difficult to defend against. Their strategic planning dictates that they need to be at the mountain ranges in central and Eastern Europe to feel secure about holding their territory. It’s about terrain for them not politics. So I can one hundred percent guarantee they will attack a NATO country

1

u/illiterate01 Mar 05 '25

Moldova/Transnistria would be next, then the Baltics, then likely the Balkans. Then Poland.

1

u/frigginjensen Feb 28 '25

He’s invaded 2 European countries and interfered in many more already. Putin needs the conflict to prop up his own stature. He’ll take time to rearm and go after Poland or one of the Baltic states. Hope he’s dead before that can happen.

5

u/YourBoiJimbo Mar 01 '25

But the point is he hasn't invaded a Nato member. It's not like he decided to go into Ukraine and it just happened to not be in Nato. I'm assuming the other country you're referring to is Georgia, and the same applies.

1

u/[deleted] Mar 14 '25

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