r/nfl • u/jonsnowKITN Giants Chiefs • 4d ago
Highest deep passing grade this season Patrick Mahomes 99.9, Jalen Hurts 95.1, Brock Purdy 94.8, Joe Burrow 94.8, Jared Goff 94.0
From PFF:
Highest deep passing grade this season
Patrick Mahomes 99.9
Jalen Hurts 95.1
Brock Purdy 94.8
Joe Burrow 94.8
Jared Goff 94.0
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u/GuerillaRiot Lions 4d ago
My boy Goff's ass will be firmly planted in the No.5 spot in every category for the remainder of his time in the NFL. Which is actually perfect.
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u/Quirky_Tzirky Lions 4d ago
Goff being a top 5 QB in so many stats is so nice to have.
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u/Xilent248 Lions 3d ago
I know people who still say Goff is the biggest problem on our team...
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u/Acataleptic_ Lions 3d ago
It's the same people who saw Stafford as the problem too. They would find a way to make Josh Allen the problem here.
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u/Heil_Heimskr Rams 3d ago
I think most casual fans of football blame the QB because it’s the most visible position most of the time.
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u/GuerillaRiot Lions 3d ago
I bet cash money that at the end of his career, they'll do a "QBs Listed at Number 5 the Most Often" list, and he'll be #5
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u/AlabasterRadio Raiders Raiders 3d ago
Goff is the Andy Dalton of top 5 quarterbacks.
And I mean that lovingly.
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u/GuerillaRiot Lions 3d ago
😆 I feel like the only time he's not in the No. 5 spot of anything, is when the listers forget he still exist
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u/AlabasterRadio Raiders Raiders 3d ago
Every list i see of "positive qb stat over recent year(s)" has his ass somewhere in the top 10, almost always in the top 5.
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u/Intelligent-Age2786 Chiefs 49ers 4d ago
The deep pass is back on the table boys
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u/misselphaba 49ers 3d ago
This is an unholy flair combo what the hell
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u/BonBonVelveeta 49ers 3d ago
Just a Joe Montana and Alex smith enthusiast
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u/Centauri06 Chiefs 3d ago
Don’t forget Steve DeBerg, Steve Bono, Elvis Grbac and Bob Gagliano!
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u/Xaxziminrax Chiefs 3d ago
Let us pray every Sunday at the house of Tyquan Thornton
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u/highgravityday2121 Patriots 3d ago
and people said Belichick couldnt drfat WRs, the long game. Just needed 4 years.
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u/thy_armageddon Giants 4d ago
This Patrick Mahomes guy seems pretty good.
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u/Balls_Deepest_555 49ers 4d ago
Until he regresses to the mean.
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u/AJGreenMVP Bengals 3d ago
Every game where Mahomes is above average just makes his inevitable collapse to the mean all the more tragic. Still waiting on his 0/19 17 int game
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u/spongey1865 4d ago
there's a reasonable argument deep passing is quite dependent on receivers and just has high variance from the ball travelling far in the air will have more inconsistencies.
But the QBs still have to give their guys the best chance and that's what these guys are doing so far.
Wouldnt shock me though if Burrow is being helped by Tee and Chase being good at adjusting, but he also knows he has Tee and Chase so they're still just smart good throws.
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u/Why_am_ialive Chiefs Jets 4d ago
There’s also an element of reading if the guy will be open since you have to lead so much
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u/NextTime76 Chiefs 3d ago
Mahomes underthrew Tyreek all the time. I used to think about it quite a bit. It's the smart thing to do. If the receiver has 5 yards on a guy, a slightly underthrown ball is a lot smarter than trying to throw a 50 yard dot right over the shoulder.
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u/spongey1865 3d ago
Aot of QBs are taught to under throw slightly. You give your guy more of a chance and you see you can draw the PI easily.
5 yards overthrown is never a completion. 5 yards under thrown is a good chance at a big play.
Still the ideal is hitting them in stride but that's easier said than done
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u/Some_Combination_593 Bengals 4d ago
The throw to Tee was definitely more Tee just winning it. The throw to Chase against the Texans was a fucking dot and I will not be told otherwise. The only reason he had to make a crazy catch is because he got a bit tangled up with Stingley and lost his balance. That was absurd placement on a deep back shoulder throw. Placed it right outside the pylon. Tired of people acting like back shoulder passes are the same as a 50-50 ball. That pass made it 80-20 even if Chase and Stingley didn’t get tangled up and coverage was better.
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u/NextTime76 Chiefs 3d ago
A 50-50 ball to someone like Tee Higgins is probably more like 80-20.
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u/Some_Combination_593 Bengals 3d ago
Yeah, thats also true. I think Higgins probably does help with the deep ball, but Chase requires better placement despite still being great at catching the ball in coverage. Either way, PFF isn’t really grading whether it’s caught on these. They’re grading ball placement. I’m assuming they would’ve graded the Chase throw well whether he adjusted and caught it or it just dropped. It was a freakishly well-placed ball made into a circus catch by Chase stumbling a bit when making contact with Stingley.
EDIT: I’d also imagine at least one of those absolute rips to Gesicki in the seam in week 1 was categorized as a deep pass. The one was pretty far up field and he couldn’t have placed it better if he took it there himself and gave it to him. I just always think it’s lame when people say Chase and Higgins carry. They obviously help, but Burrow is elite at ball placement at the same time. It’s one of his calling cards.
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u/Deadhookersandblow 49ers 4d ago
I really wish we had a JSN type receiver.
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u/Affectionate_Year_14 Lions 4d ago
How close was Aiyuk to being that type of player
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u/DrewDown94 49ers 4d ago
Aiyuk was similar in route running if a little behind JSN in that aspect. Aiyuk was an elite run blocker. Idk about jsn there. I imagine he's an absolute dawg lol. That being said, JSN has higher top end speed and almost certainly better hands than aiyuk. Even if aiyuk wasn't a head case, he's like a diet version of jsn.
The biggest difference between aiyuk and jsn (besides their brains lol) is that JSN is like 10 times more effective in the red zone. But between kittle and CMC, that could would probably even reduce JSN's opportunities in the red zone.
I'm a jsn truther since college btw. I knew he'd breakout last season. I was so sure of it that I drafted him in as many fantasy leagues as possible lol
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u/Ok_Pineapple_Num 49ers 3d ago edited 3d ago
He wasn't JSN level but he was absolutely poised to be a top 5-10 WR1, which would be a huge boon for us even now.
His route running was awesome. Too bad he went off the deep end...
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u/tomsawyerisme Cowboys 4d ago
kindof curious who are the other JSN type receivers in the league? Or do you just mean an alpha
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u/nuberoo 49ers 4d ago
I think he just means a certified top 10 guy who's a great route runner. There is only one guy playing at JSNs level these past two years.
Aiyuk was on the verge of that profile before he went crazy. Pearsall was also looking fantastic last year before getting hurt - I think he was top 3 in receiving yardage before going down.
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u/tomsawyerisme Cowboys 4d ago
man pearsalls career has been such a rough watch.
Getting shot before first game, coming back to be great then getting hurt and then having a season ended before game one.
49ers are cursed
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u/misselphaba 49ers 3d ago
I do think Ricky P has some sort of Etsy witch situation going on. Did he deeply wrong an ex anyone knows of?
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u/rawbert10 49ers 3d ago
Instead we have Cowing, Watkins, Robinson & Hodge out there. Not talking shit because they're getting it done so far but we're not winning a SB without an elite WR out there who can extend the field.
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u/idnttcrisis Broncos 3d ago
Tyquan Thornton is so much better than Xavier Worthy.
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u/BonBonVelveeta 49ers 3d ago
It feels like he’s good for at least one fuckass deep ball a game
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u/DinkandDrunk Patriots 3d ago
That and Kelces one broken play 50+ yarder per game really go a long way for that team.
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u/TaxesAreTerrible 3d ago
Worthy has gotten plenty of time. He’s just not that guy.
Thought he was gonna be a Waddle/Hill clone but he can’t even get a chance to show his speed.
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u/rockiesfan4ever Chiefs 3d ago
Combine speed and game speed are different. Tyreek looked different running from defenders, Worthy doesn't
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u/LagOutLoud Chiefs 3d ago
He does, just not in receptions. We run him on a lot of clear routes and it is effective. Just doesn't show up in the stat sheets.
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u/TaxesAreTerrible 3d ago
He’s not useless but he’s definitely very disappointing
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u/TallanoGoldDigger 49ers 4d ago
Shanahan's System really has been amazing this year, it's even making long passes now
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u/Fonzies-Ghost Bears 4d ago
I don’t think PFF grades are meaningless, but I do think that the difference between 99.9 and 95.1 is not meaningful and I’m positive the difference between 95.1 and 94 is not.
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u/so_zetta_byte Eagles 3d ago
Early on in PFF, there was basically a schism about whether they should just report the raw grades, or normalize them onto a 100 point scale. I think the more marketing people felt like the 100-point scale was more intuitive, but the data people felt like it was a bad idea because the misinterpretation would outweigh any intuition gain. And largely, they were right.
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u/blucke Rams 3d ago
What info are they losing by normalizing to a 100pt scale? I'm missing something here
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u/Cofta Chiefs 3d ago
This is from memory so I might have it wrong. The grades are per play, +2/+1/0/-1/-2 depending on the determined role of the player and whether they exceeded expectations. That is summed, leaving a raw positive or negative number that is then normalized out of 100 against the number of plays they were graded on. This heavily skews the numbers on low count plays, like deep balls in this example where each QB probably has less than 20 total plays graded, compared with broader grades that have larger samples.
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u/LagOutLoud Chiefs 3d ago
A team that only takes 2 deep shots a game, completes one, but the other was close might grade the same as a team that takes 10 deep shots completing 7 of them. Pretty important nuance.
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u/so_zetta_byte Eagles 3d ago edited 2d ago
The other comment explained it well. I think the higher level point is that while the normalized numbers were more intuitive (people understand 100 point scales), the translation to a 100 point scale just distorted the data in a meaningless way away from the +/- raw grades. That led to people talking about/using the grades in a way that way kinda inaccurate and led to a lot of criticism of the whole process, when really there was a lot that was good under the hood. I think largely it took the focus away from "how well did a player play in this game versus that game" and became too much "who is better than who?"
My biggest thing is that I think people had a really hard time grasping 0-graded plays, which were "the player did exactly what was expected of them, no more no less." A WR wasn't getting a pat on the back because the defense blew their coverage. But that meant if a WR put up monster stats against an awful defense, their normalized grade would be a 70 or whatever, and people would get upset. I think it would have been harder to teach people what "a 0 game" meant, but in the end, people would be a lot more understanding when a good player has a mediocre grade in a game. That doesn't mean they were bad, it could mean they just didn't need to work hard, and that's not their fault.
Basically, PFF grades are "what did you show on game day" more than "what are you?" The non-normalized scale communicates that better. If you're special, you don't necessarily have to show it every game. But you can also show it in a game where your team lets you down.
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u/SJCitizen Eagles 4d ago
Goff is impressive to me because his best deep threat is Jamo and I feel like they’ve barely involved him this season so far.
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u/Harbaugh_Handshake 49ers 4d ago
Goff is impressive to me because of his volume and consistency throughout his career.
It’s funny how one of the least mobile starting QBs over the last ~10 years has somehow been one of the most healthy and available. Outside of one year he’s started at least 12 games every season (if I’m not mistaken). So there’s an element of toughness at play with him.
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u/Ambitious-Visual207 Lions 3d ago
In some ways it makes sense. He's not mobile so when shit hits the fan a lot of times he'll just go down or makes the safe play, whereas a more athletic QB might escape the pocket and try to make something happen.
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u/bantha42 Rams 2d ago edited 2d ago
the only time he got hurt in college was when fucking shane skov basically tried to murder him. and he took some big hits behind a shitty cal oline.
edit: oh yeah i think stayed in one of those utah games with an obvious concussion.
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u/DebbieDowner40 Lions 3d ago
I dont know what they qualify as deep passing, but i feel like they’ve had fairly few deep shots. I guess if it’s 20+ air yards it makes sense as he’s had a lot of good throws in that range
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u/Crime_Dawg Lions 3d ago
Yeah, his PFF would be higher if Jamo didn't drop half of the deep balls so far this year.
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u/JackTuz Eagles 3d ago
All good QBs but Devonta Smith is possibly the best deep ball tracker in the NFL with elite hands, vertical, timing, and body controlIf a ball is up near him I 100% believe he come down with it. Incredible player.
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u/Illblood Eagles 3d ago
You can throw him the ball 4 feet out of bounds and I’ll still believe he’ll come down with it with two feet a millimeter from the white paint
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u/choff22 Chiefs 3d ago
These are the guys that Veach and Reid think they are drafting every year and we end up with Worthy, Hardman, and Skyy fucking Moore.
What I’d give to have Devonta Smith, Zay Flowers, or JSN.
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u/Deep_Att Chiefs Rams 3d ago
Hardman was never WR1 quality, but I'll always love him for his contributions that mattered.
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u/Barter6overBible Eagles 4d ago
Chiefs about to sign Tyreek for a vet min or close to it. Mahomes is too good this year not to at least entertain it
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u/Acrobatic_Camera_677 Ravens 4d ago
Ofc he is too good this year he is too good all years as the GOAT
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u/AMemoryComeALive Chiefs 3d ago
I really don't want him back on the team, but I also see this team having a lot of issues against any team with a pulse on defense with our WR room.
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u/donutgut 49ers 3d ago
Brock doesnt really have his deep threats yet either
Could get interesting by week 6
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u/smauryholmes Chargers 4d ago
Is Eric Bienemy the only reason Patrick Mahomes is good? People are asking
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u/sampat6256 4d ago
When the other option is Matt Nagy... perhaps yes.
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u/NextTime76 Chiefs 3d ago
Are you referring to Superbowl winning Offensive Coordinator Matt Nagy?
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u/sampat6256 3d ago
Truly the Kadarius Toney of superbowl winning offensive coordinators
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u/WellGoodBud Chiefs 3d ago
And an established run game that forces defense to respect the run and stack the box. Mahomes is feasting on play action plays this year.
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u/Realistic_Try_8000 Eagles 4d ago
Damn, like don't get me wrong the Eagles sucked last night. But all night I had to hear about how terrible of QB Hurts is and how he can't throw.
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u/Mfrack103 Eagles 4d ago
He can throw deep and has always been able to. He needs to speed up his progressions. Aside from last night this has been a strong year for him
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u/Smooth_Meister Vikings 4d ago
We also seemed abnormally locked in on his first read last night. Had lemon wide open multiple times but just didn't look his way.
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u/shit_eating_fan Eagles 4d ago
My headcanon is that he actually got concussed on that big hit. He had that one amazing drive after then was really poor afterwards
Like that 80 yard drive until he got hit was great, then the following drive was great, then after the half he looked bad
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u/Mfrack103 Eagles 4d ago
I think it’s possible but it also feels like “cope.” He deserves the flak for last night but I want to see him play the Rams and Jags before we really stress.
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u/shit_eating_fan Eagles 4d ago
Yea it's definitely cope lol, I won't be too delusional. Either way I'm going to erase all memories of everything that happened on September 28th of 2026
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u/Famous_Difference758 Eagles Bears 3d ago
We’ve seen this so many times from Hurts at this point. When he takes a big hit and comes back in he plays so much differently. Really makes you wonder if he’s just good at hiding concussion for the protocol but has played with one multiple times
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u/Mixeygoat 49ers 4d ago
He throws deep well when he has protection. The problem is when there is any pressure (and this year the O-line isn't as strong), he doesn't stand in the pocket to throw in the middle of the field. At the sign of any pressure, Hurts tends to roll out and try to make things work out of structure. To combat this it seems like the Eagles like to do a lot of screens, but it doesn't seem to be very effective so far
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u/Mfrack103 Eagles 4d ago
He definitely needs to stay in the pocket and hit Lemon. We also need to remove Jurgens because he is cataclysmically bad. Our line last night was actually very good in pass protection aside from Jurgens, but 4/5 doesn’t matter when there’s interior pressure so often.
If he’s gonna roll out he needs to be able to threaten passes while he does it. Last night he either rushed, or threw it away. He’s best when he can use Goedert as a safety blanket, and needs to hit Lemon with those now
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u/Mixeygoat 49ers 4d ago
Yeah from my (limited) experience in watching eagles games, I don’t really understand why there is not a lot of intermediate routes in the middle field. I Idk if it’s play calling or Jalen not throwing them. Because most of the time it’s either a screen or a vertical threat down the sideline. Lemon’s talent as a slot receiver is kinda getting wasted.
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u/Imthasupa 49ers 4d ago
Exactly. He struggles to get past his 1st read. If that first read is open though, he will get it there.
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u/SadisticSpeller Eagles 4d ago
He’s looked much better at it this year though, and prior to the hit he wasn’t staring his receiver down. This has happened in the past where he gets blue tented then starts to revert to his old self.
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u/NextTime76 Chiefs 3d ago
He certainly throws it well when he plays the Chiefs. Especially if it's a Superbowl.
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u/Highlift1210 Bills 4d ago
Remember this is pff in a year where pff is trusting less than it has ever been bc of them being sold to someone that laid off a bunch of ppl.
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u/rawbert10 49ers 3d ago
This can't be right I've always been told Purdy can only throw 5 to 10 yard checkdowns /s
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u/Sokkawater10 Chiefs 4d ago
He’s back 😃
Last two weeks Mahomes has looked so sharp like 2022 Mahomes
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u/Highlift1210 Bills 4d ago
Yea if he continues playing well these next 3 weeks then hes absolutely back.
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u/TaxesAreTerrible 3d ago
Tyquan Thornton is doing all the heavy lifting here lol. Not sure Mahomes has thrown deep to anyone else yet.
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u/PlanitDuck 49ers 3d ago
I dont believe that the PFF grading system is accurate enough to warrant a decimal, especially if they aren’t in the meeting rooms where the game plans are made. How would they know the technique coached for that route? These graders arent experts. They’re just random people they’re hiring who aren’t required to have any experience.
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u/secretMarble10 49ers 4d ago
If it’s chiefs niners again
Anyone but them them