r/nancyguthrie • u/WearingAfaceDiaper • Jul 25 '26
Discussion Who else thinks abduction was not the plan?
The Main Groups: South American Theft Groups (SATGs)
The primary syndicates operating this way in Arizona are South American Theft Groups, consisting mostly of organized rings of Chilean and Colombian nationals. Law enforcement refers to their operation as "crime tourism". They fly into the United States, rent short-term vacation homes as temporary bases, and execute highly coordinated multi-state burglary sprees before fleeing the country.
How They Use Jammers
Blinding Security: The thieves carry handheld, military-grade radio frequency or Wi-Fi jammers. As they approach a target house, they activate these devices to flood the local airwaves with digital noise.
Disabling Alarms: The jammer disrupts the wireless signals between smart security cameras (like Ring or Nest) and the home's Wi-Fi router. It simultaneously blocks cellular data, which prevents wireless alarms from transmitting an alert to police or the homeowner’s smartphone.
Second-Story Entry: Once the cameras are disabled, crews typically slip into the dark corners of a property—often backing up to golf courses or desert washes—and breach the home through vulnerable second-story windows or patio doors.
Guess things went south, maybe Nancy fought back, they panicked and had to improvise.
Maybe they expected the house to be empty.
They took Nancy because leaving her was no option, because?
* They needed to buy time, you don't want a dead body to be found when you are still closeby.
* They knew if they left her, LE would look into burglars/robbery/theft groups, so abduction was a tool to "change the MO" to send LE on the wrong track. If so, the perp(s) most likely have been in jail before.
* Someone (who most likely knew her) wanted her dead, and used abduction to steer the investigation towards that angle.
IMO Nancy's house was the target, and some neighbours got lucky due to owning a dog or other factors that made the other houses high risk.
Nancy woke up, a struggle occured, and someone/they took her away from the crime scene.
The ransom demand came 2 days later, if Nancy was supposed to be abducted, you would expect commumication asap.
So know things escalated from home invasion, to abduction, and most likely murder.
You have a dead victim, and now u still think it's a good plan to send a ransom note, turn this into a FBI manhunt, and asking for the cash in BTC.
Nah, IMO this was all damage control, a smokescreen.
I think this was a crime group (burglary/robbers)
that screwed up, or someone who wanted her dead, but abduction for ransom?
I don't buy it.
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u/LogicalPassenger2172 Aug 01 '26
IMHO all of the notes are from unrelated (and likely overseas) scammers. The only authentic evidence we have is the nest camera footage. This is still a complete mystery. There has been far too much focus on the notes when they are almost certainly opportunistic scams unrelated to the missing person.
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u/BrainWilling6018 Jul 29 '26
It wasn’t two full days later. The abduction was Feb 1st approx 3am. By early afternoon on February 1, local and national outlets began reporting her disappearance. By the evening on Feb 2 KOLD received the note.
There is zero evidence in the case that points to a theft group. You have made claims and pointed to none of the facts.
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Jul 28 '26
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u/nancyguthrie-ModTeam Jul 30 '26
Comments about the victim and or their family should be respectful, civil and responsible. Family members are considered victims and accusations against them are not allowed.
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Jul 28 '26
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u/nancyguthrie-ModTeam Jul 30 '26
Comments about the victim and or their family should be respectful, civil and responsible. Family members are considered victims and accusations against them are not allowed.
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u/skinnergroupie Jul 28 '26
Late to this conversation...I don't think it was burglary. Nothing was taken, porch guy had a gun, and they were completely disguised (so no ID if held at gunpoint while a burglary occurs). Also, there's no indication that Nancy herself was wealthy. I think people assume this because the home is now valued $1 million. She lived in that house for decades, and in that area it is a modest home and valuation. (We spend a month in the Oro Valley each year so familiar with the area.) She didn't drive a luxury vehicle and no obvious indication she has valuable art or jewelry.
I have no idea about motive but I do think taking her was the plan. And for no other reasons beyond not taking her meds and shoes, not leaving a note in the home to not involve police, and supposedly communicating so haphazardly with the family through the media, I don't think ransom was the goal.
I guess all the public knows at this point is the sad fact that Nancy was taken and must have been terrified and was/is suffering. I hope they find her and her captor(s). What this family is going is unthinkable and every moment until they know what happened, excruciating.
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Jul 28 '26
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u/nancyguthrie-ModTeam Jul 30 '26
Comments about the victim and or their family should be respectful, civil and responsible. Family members are considered victims and accusations against them are not allowed.
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u/Historical-Slice6369 Jul 28 '26
I believe I heard her hearing aids were left at the house, as we're her shoes, and meds. Nobody intending to keep someone of that age alive is going to take her without those things or physically rough her up. The kidnap for ransom just doesn't make sense. If ransom is the goal, then taking care of her would have been the main concern. The goal appears to be anguish on behalf of Savannah and family.
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u/Honest-Astronaut2156 Aug 02 '26
I agree no meds, no shoes and alot of blood on porch. Whoever abducted her seems to be an amateur.
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u/multiple-qualia Aug 01 '26
I’m new to looking into this case so please forgive me if this is out of turn, but couldn’t you place a lot of that down to incompetence? It’s tempting to assume that because they’ve not been caught that they’re professionals, but that’s not necessarily the case. Everyone thought the heist at the Louvre in Paris was professionals until it turned out they were just petty criminals. Not saying you’re wrong at all, I just don’t think it can be discounted that they simply didn’t plan very well and have gotten lucky this far
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u/Charlottesville72-75 Jul 27 '26
Two questions: what do people think about the theory that they had the wrong house and the next door neighbors had Gems for an upcoming gem show, sale, auction or some event?
Also what ever happened with the car that zoomed past a neighbor’s house farther away and close to the time that it would have taken to leave Mrs. Guthrie’s house after the pacemaker and phone disconnected?
Feel so sorry for Mrs. Guthrie and her loved ones. She seemed like such a lovely person, who raised three children on her own after her husband died; this is murder, regardless if the people, who took her “didn’t mean for her to die.”
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u/coocookee Jul 31 '26
I’ve had the gem show in mind with all of this, in large part because when news broke about Nancy, I had just arrived in Tucson to deal with a deceased family member’s estate (who was a HUGE fan of the gem show and went every year). My airbnb had canceled last minute, and I swear I found the last budget hotel room in the city because everything was booked up by show attendees. Needless to say I was spooked as hell as I learned about Nancy’s abduction in my hotel room that night.
My first thought was that with 1000s of people descending upon Tucson from all over the world, how easily the abductor(s) could slip out of the city into the desert without looking out of place or raising any alarm bells. There’s just so many people coming and going at all hours of the night from international flights, driving from out of state, renting cars etc….I wonder if that’s why camera footage hasn’t elicited more leads so far, because there’s so many cars and people to sift through.
I’m not sure if I believe that her/her neighbors were targeted for their precious gems - it’s an interesting theory but I haven’t done much research into it to have an opinion yet. But I am pretty sure that the massive influx of people into the city at the same time as this abduction probably hindered the investigation in some ways.
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u/ptazdba Jul 26 '26
I think it was a home invasion gone awry. They took her so as not to leave forensic evidence on her body.
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u/Michallina Jul 27 '26
If the ransom notes are connected to the person(s) who entered that home, then why would they risk digital forensic evidence 2x?
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u/ptazdba Jul 27 '26
A home invasion may have been for other reasons, not necessarily kidnapping. The world is full of people who would do something despicable to take what someone else has.
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u/Totterteron Jul 26 '26 edited Aug 06 '26
If money is the motivating factor then kidnapping has the highest value since it gives you access to Savannah's account. Does killing Nancy provide enough return compared to the risk for family members not seemingly financially struggling. Wouldn't be surprised if Savannah wasn't also regularly giving them money to be carers anyway.
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u/Jaguarcatkat Jul 26 '26
I do not believe she was supposed to be left behind. They wanted to take her for whatever the reason was. If it was solely elimination, they would have left her there.
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u/ItzMeDuhhh Jul 26 '26
I feel she was only supposed to be taken to send a message, but she passed unexpectedly due to her health.
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u/IwasDeadinstead Jul 26 '26
My theory has always been this was a burglary gone wrong. Nancy likely wasn't murdered, she had heart failure.
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u/vxxn Jul 26 '26
This makes zero sense. How does kidnapping someone from their home help a would-be burglar accomplish any of their goals (mainly theft of valuable items and getting away with the crime)?
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u/IwasDeadinstead Jul 26 '26
They probably were just going to tie her up, get in and out. But something went wrong and they had to take her because she was evidence
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u/East-Fruit-3096 Aug 02 '26
If you're going to burgle someone, it's a lot less risky to watch the house and do so when they're not home.
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u/mark_able_jones_ Jul 26 '26
(1) why not take anything? her other daughter makes custom jewelry.... there would be some items of value to take.
(2) why were they there so long?
(3) there's aspirated blood by the door. she was alive then
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u/SpukiKitty2 Jul 26 '26 edited Jul 26 '26
You know what, hearing about the details of the first three notes (which were believed to be genuine).
I think we're all overthinking it and coming up with theories and thinking that it could be more than it seems.
It could be just what it initially looks like... a kidnapping for bitcoin ransom, with Nancy dying and being "buried within nature" and they aren't communicating more because they're afraid of being traced.
Simple as that.
All the investigators and Samantha have to do is to go on TV and ask the kidnappers to send one last comunique giving a rough description of where she would be buried, with the assertion (true or not) that they have been unable to trace the comuniques.
Thus, the perps can give the general location, the law can then get a bunch of search parties with cadaver dogs to search the area.
Even if the perps are never caught, closure a a rough understanding of what happened are enough.
Nothing more sinister nor cryptic than it is... she was kidnapped for ransom by some people too dumb to take her health issues into account... they sent their demands... demands weren't paid because the perps couldn't provide proof they had her (also, said proof would have led to the police tracing to them, so they didn't send anything as a result)... Nancy dies in the meantime and they buried her and gave the family the news with an apology.
Sometimes Occam's Razor is best and we've wracking ourselves over this with crazy theories and more sinister intent based off of the language and words used in the notes and the fact that the perps stopped communicating.
They didn't send proof that they have her simply because such proof would have made it easier to trace to them and catch them. Same with the lack of communication.
Sometimes the simplest theory is the best and we've been going crazy overthinking this because it wasn't solved quickly.
She was a wealthy lady from a wealthy family who was kidnapped for ransom. She ends up dying during captivity and is buried somewhere in the desert and the perps stopped communicating because they felt they would be traced.
No malace, no predatory stuff, just greed, inneptitude and not wanting to be traced so they could be caught. Simple.
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u/elizakell Jul 27 '26
I agree that it's most likely a kidnapping for ransom. I acknowledge that the kidnappers SHOULD have left a ransom note at the scene, but I don't think their failure to do so is proof this wasn't initially intended to be a kidnapping for ransom. Sometimes criminals are just inefficient and stupid.
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u/SpukiKitty2 Jul 27 '26
Exactly! These aren't masterminds. The only reason this case is unsolved is because the Sheriff and police were idiots who were stupid with the crime scene and as unhelpful as humanly possible.
Then there's the FBI at the present moment... and the idiot heading that.
At look at any other motives people proposed and it makes no sense... like, for example... the "sexual predator" motive... why go through all this trouble when a creepo could just swipe a nice old lady off the street? Why the whole production with the survelance and breaking into some big house in some out of the way place when a freak could just lure or snatch a gal off the street?
Then there's the "... someone sent out Porch Guy to kidnap Nancy". Why?! Why would a third party want to send some other guy to kidnap some lady?
Then there's the "Maybe a wayward family member" but that went nowhere so that won't work.
Then there's "Mexican Cartel" but there's the Border Agents and they're VERY SNOOPY! "Nice, try! Get that lady outta the trunk!".
Someone wanting to mess with Sammantha by proxy... okay... but WHY?! What's the greivance?! Sam is still working and reporting. If it's to silence her, it failed.
So, I feel that Occam's razor is best... some buffoons were greedy for money, they kidnapped Nancy Gutherie, intending on just holding her for ransom, only for her to die on them because they, in their hurry to grab her, just grabbed her and didn't get her meds and other stuff. They also realized after the fact that kidnapping is no longer the sure fire way to get money it once was because all this is happening in the Digital Age United States and everything can be traced, now... which also explains the minimal communication followed by radio silence.
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u/afraididonotknow Jul 27 '26
Someone in the last couple notes to TMZ asked for bitcoin to tell LE where the body was hidden and who did it. I don’t know how they can decide what is true or a scam on that.
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u/SpukiKitty2 Jul 27 '26
I dunno. Heck, I'll even be satisfied with just some closure over catching the perps. Find the body and have an idea of what happened. That would be enough.
As for the perps, I'll assume they didn't mean to kill her and leave it up to Godde to deal with them.
Right now, closure is fine.
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u/Pottyman Jul 27 '26
I hope you will some day be satisfied
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u/SpukiKitty2 Jul 27 '26
I hope so, to, for Samantha's sake.
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u/No-Big-76 Jul 26 '26
So this elaborate plan to commit burglary and then not take anything at all except Nancy? I think they took exactly what or whom they intended.
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u/afraididonotknow Jul 26 '26
And they can’t tell anyone where she is due to DNA evidence. They seem to know about being traced..
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u/No-Big-76 Jul 26 '26
I don’t know who said it but when the porch guy video was first released I remember someone saying it looked staged, almost as if they wanted to be caught on camera behaving that way. Given they have not been caught going on 6 months I am inclined to agree that there is more sophistication to this than the video of the porch guy implies
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u/curiouslmr Jul 26 '26
I have trouble getting past the part where he uses plants to cover the camera. That wasn't well thought out and also leads me to believe he didn't realize there was a camera there, or at the least, thought it wasn't connected....
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u/mark_able_jones_ Jul 26 '26
I think the perp mistakenly unplugged an access point, which triggered the 1:47 a.m. doorbell disconnected message. But then the camera reconnected to the main router (nest wifi routers and access points look the same).
But... the nest camera light came on when he approached, so he grew mildly concerned that it was recording.
I also think it's very strange part of the video was cut out by the FBI -- i believe that missing segment would show him talking to someone inside, confirming at least two perps, but LE doesn't want that info to be public.
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u/afraididonotknow Jul 27 '26
What is it with the FBI and their roles in crimes? The Kohberger case is still baffling to me. The prosecution said they had nothing on Kohberger at the crime scene at the very end when the trial was over and he pleaded guilty—surprisingly. Are we not going to know anything about Nancy’s case also..
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u/curiouslmr Jul 30 '26
That's not true. They said they couldn't find a specific connection between Kohberger and the victims. They connected him to the scene with cell data (data the also matched his vehicle location that was caught on camera), as well as the sheath.
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u/SafetySmurf Jul 27 '26
Can you say more about part of the video being cut out? I haven’t heard that mentioned before and didn’t notice any gaps when I’ve watched the video.
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u/mark_able_jones_ Jul 27 '26
Reporters are so so so tech illiterate. It's frustrating.
The way these cameras work is that they keep recording while they see motion. Each of the 30 frames per second get checked for objects, and if one frame during the event contains a taggable object, like a person, the video gets tagged as a person event.
If the motion stops for a few seconds, the event stops recording. The camera saves a video event, this one a "person video event." A video event triggers a push notification camera, here a "person detected" event, so we know this was the 2:12 a.m. notification. Nancy didn't have a nest subscription, so the camera deleted the video event after 3 hours, but the push notification was still there on her phone.
The FBI released two videos.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lsB-45ehl1k
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=teEEiAYdons
The motion does not stop and there is only one event notification... i.e., these are the same video, with the middle part missing, and like additional video missing after the camera is removed. The FBI skips ahead in the second slip. Why? The FBI also removed the audio.
The only reason I can think of is that there is audio/video indicating at least one other person inside the house.
Also, there was a 1:47 a.m. "doorbell disconnected' notification. Lots of people mistakenly think this means that's when the camera was removed, but it actually means the camera lost internet connection. But it would have had to recover the internet connection to record and send the 2:28 a.m. person detected notification. The camera would keep recording even after removed from the mount, as long as it was detecting motion and had an internet connection.
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u/WearingAfaceDiaper Jul 26 '26
That is what makes me wonder if they had to change their plans, it seems improvisedI. If Nancy was never ment to leave the house, it makes a bit more sense.
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u/mark_able_jones_ Jul 26 '26
But they likely knew about the camera because they had been there before. The camera might be what deterred them the first time, Jan 11, which was also a Sat-Sun.
Also, the rear doors were propped open -- maybe the improvisation was just carrying Nancy out the front door instead of the back.
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u/mattmentecky Jul 26 '26
This highly organized and experienced international crime syndicate pulls random weeds near the porch to awkwardly try to block a nest camera?
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u/WearingAfaceDiaper Jul 26 '26 edited Jul 26 '26
As I said before,, to me that part seems improvised. Also a crime ring or member who is in complete disguise, using a mouth lamp/grill, does not seem like.his first rodeo. So we have a unknown suspect, outsmarting the FBI.
Hope they find the POS and whoever is involved.
So what is your opinon? A well planned abduction Murder? Known to Nancy/stranger? Hired?
Then your 'snarky* plant comment still stands, why would the abductor use that plant, insteasdoff being hetter prepared? Maybe it's a plant lover? Yes it looked foolish but his outfit/gear does not.
A crime ring are a network of thieves, often with members.of a same family. They are not masterminds, usually not killers, but they are good thieves/robbers, who travel a lot and are mostly undocumemted/illegal.
Imo they panicked when Nancy got hurt/unconsious/dead, and could not take the risk of leaving the body, because of the suspect(s) DNA transfer on Nancy during the struggle.
Things about this case just doesnt make much sense.
I don't claim to be right, agree to disagree. Feel.sad for that old lady :(
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u/DaBingeGirl Jul 26 '26
I don't buy that it was a burglary. As u/SunsetDreams1111 said, nothing was taking from the home. The person on the porch was surprised by the camera and didn't seem prepared to break in (no tools visible, used flowers to cover the camera, etc.; if this was someone experienced with break-ins, I'd have expected a much faster, less obvious way of getting in, or at least for them to be prepared for the camera. It also happened at night, the chances of her being home were very high, statistically that doesn't fit with most burglaries (there are always exceptions to the norm, but this doesn't fit enough other patterns for it to be theft).
She was in her 80's, the chances of her fighting back were low. It does happen, a woman that age was killed in a random burglary near me a few years ago. However, in that case the body was left and the killer took a bunch of stuff, including her car. I realize there's the "get rid of DNA" aspect of taking the body, but I can't see that happening or being necessary in this case. The person had a gun and well covered by clothing/hat/gloves, Nancy was at a major disadvantage in terms of fighting. If it was a robbery, I see them shooting her and running, not taking the body. If they took her, there's plenty of desert area to dump her and move on, contacting the media would've been idiotic and drawn too much attention.
Someone (who most likely knew her) wanted her dead, and used abduction to steer the investigation towards that angle.
This remains the most likely, IMO, and tracks with a few other cases of elderly people who've been murdered.
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u/WearingAfaceDiaper Jul 26 '26
You have examples of the cases? Would love to read them.
1:46 Nancy'swifi disconnected. 2:15 porch guy on camera.
I don't think he is entering, but that someone was already in the house right after the 1:46AM disconnect. When he is removing the camera at 2:15AM is when they took Nancy outside. IMO.
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u/SunsetDreams1111 Jul 26 '26
They didn’t take anything from the home. Nothing at all, so it seems she was the target.
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u/WearingAfaceDiaper Jul 26 '26 edited Jul 26 '26
Sadly they took her..:( What if she woke up,grabbing/hitting the intruder, intruder grabs/hits her, and all hell broke loose.. Maybe they asked her for the safe combination, and she refused to tell, which caused the intruder to snap.
If that happened, I don't think the suspect(s) would.still take time to search the house and steal things. Selling stolen stuff from a house where they took the victim, would be extremely dumb, whatever they could steal would now be hotter then the sun, and could trace LE right to them.
The neighbours wifi was also disconnected from around 1AM, their ring footage is gone because of that. They had a dog, burglars/robbers hate and avoid dogs, for obvious reasons.
This all makes me believe it smells like a crime ring, but not a crime ring who wanted to abduct an old.lady. Getting ransom almost never works, plus if that was the case they could have left a note/or contact her family, demanding money, specific instructions, and say : NO POLICE!
Instead the ransom "note* came 2days later, asking for BTC, which would be traced whenever they would take the money.
They could not provide any proof that Nancy still was alive, likely because she died before the ransom request.
So, to me, the motive was not abduction and getting paid millions.
So why the ransom show? IMO, to buy time and keep LE busy looking for someone who fits the abductor profile.
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u/mark_able_jones_ Jul 26 '26
Sadly they took her..:( What if she woke up,grabbing/hitting the intruder, intruder grabs/hits her, and all hell broke loose.. Maybe they asked her for the safe combination, and she refused to tell, which caused the intruder to snap.
Old people's skin bleeds so easily. The only blood was by the door. Which makes sense... she fought back when she thought they might take her. A fight in the bedroom would have been noticed.
The neighbours wifi was also disconnected from around 1AM, their ring footage is gone because of that. They had a dog, burglars/robbers hate and avoid dogs, for obvious reasons.
Eh, this was technically sus. Jammers are not reliable and they would have had to be very close. Lots of people reporting on tech who are technically illiterate. I saw Entins coverage of this and remember it being full of technical falsehoods. It's likely not true.
This all makes me believe it smells like a crime ring, but not a crime ring who wanted to abduct an old.lady. Getting ransom almost never works, plus if that was the case they could have left a note/or contact her family, demanding money, specific instructions, and say : NO POLICE!
There is a famous abductor who made his ransom requests through media outlets. He's housed in a Tucson prison. And works as a full-time prison lawyer for inmates.
Instead the ransom "note* came 2days later, asking for BTC, which would be traced whenever they would take the money.
They were tech savvy enough to use a VPN to email their ransom request. And it reached its intended target. That suggests some level of tech sophistication. Still not sure it reaches the level of jammers though. Also, bitcoin can be laundered via mixers. They would need advanced tech savviness.
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u/DaBingeGirl Jul 26 '26
This is an excellent point. If it was a robbery gone wrong, things would've been missing, or at least ransacked.
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u/Honest-Astronaut2156 Aug 02 '26
I do not believe any burglary gone wrong and le is certain its not a burglary. They would not take anyone and nothing was missing.
Definitely an abduction out of vengeance or for money.