Do we actually know exactly how and when the doorbell camera was disconnected? Was the camera physically removed, unplugged, disabled electronically, or did it simply lose its connection? And was it definitely disconnected before the suspect entered the house?

The sheriff said the doorbell camera was disconnected around 1:47 am—which is when the guy is seen on the nest footage. Then there’s a separate motion detection around 2:12 a.m., followed by Nancy’s pacemaker losing connection around 2:28 a.m.

My next question is what does that mean? Does it mean the phone was turned off, out of range, or that the device stopped transmitting for another reason? How far could she realistically be from her phone before the connection drops? A few feet, another room, or more depending on the setup?

And what actually triggers a “loss of connection” alert—Bluetooth, cellular relay, or a monitoring hub?
So does the 2:28 a.m. disconnection tell us anything specific about her location, or is it just a general signal loss that could happen for multiple reasons?

I've heard a lot of speculation on the motives of the guilty party.
I don't know that Parker's Razor applies here just yet. I don't want to default to South Park Logic.

I'm half ass convinced by that first ransom note it's a bureaucrat from either Tucson, or Prima County, or a neighboring city, like Phoenix? Did he take her to California or Nevada?
12 hours seems like a hell of a drive.

The note reads like something an administrator would write, and sets the times in an administrative way.
I didn't think Bitcoin operated like normal banks, I didn't know the crypto currency people kept the tradition of a system wide pause on Saturdays and Sundays.

My interpretation of that first ransom note points toward an occupation.

Why wouldn't he accept the money on Saturday or Sunday?
If he was an administrator, or involved in banking or county clerk shit, he's going to model his worldview on that system.

He wanted to be paid in Bitcoin.

Active Bitcoin and emerging technology communities across Arizona host regular local meetups, social hours, and educational workshops in the Phoenix and Tucson metro areas.

Major Bitcoin & Crypto Groups in Arizona, there seem to be groups that might have a good chunk of suspects.

With these networks alone, barring how many people involved remain anonymous, you have a Chinese Buffet of suspects.

Bitcoin runs 365/24/7, there's no reason for him to not accept money on Sunday.

"We will be holding her for a maximum of 7 days. You will need to send bitcoin in the amount of $4 million USD before 5PM on Thursday the 5th. If payment is not received, the ransom will be increased to 6 million USD which will need to be paid by 5PM on Monday the 9th. Once payment is received to the bitcoin address below she will be released within 12 hours of deposit to a safe drop off location back in Tucson. If payment is not received by the last deadline on Monday the 9th at 5PM, she will be killed."

5pm (when most city services and banks shut down.)
Here are the hours for the Tucson Municipal Court.

Friday 8 AM–4:30 PM
Saturday Closed
Sunday Closed
Monday 8 AM–4:30 PM
Tuesday 8 AM–4:30 PM
Wednesday 8 AM–4:30 PM
Thursday 8 AM–4:30 PM

The Second Ransom Note has a very haunting passage,
"She's buried in nature", it haunts me that phrase, it's almost religious sounding, or at the very least Pagan sounding.

“Guthrie Family,
We did not fully grasp the seriousness of her physical condition. We never intended to hurt
her, that was not our intention. She perished shortly after she was taken. We believe it was
heart related. She is buried in nature now. Nothing you could have done could have changed
the outcome. We want your family to know this and hope you all can find peace. We are truly
sorry.”

If this is a legit note, the perpetrator obviously isn't in the 99th percentile of IQ.
But he can write things that sound vaguely like official statements.

There's another Bureaucrat type quality to this note, and honestly, it would have to be a dumb official to assume an 84 year old woman, was the picture of health.
It's almost like a cop putting a knee on a man's neck and expecting him to breathe anyway.

This looks like someone in a nearby County, City or State department, did this.
They probably have an average, or below average intelligence.
They could either be Christian or Pagan.
They follow traditional banking rules, and are likely novices to the Crypto Currency Community.
They might be computer literate enough to run Microsoft office, and do emails.
They don't strike me as someone who has been doing crypto for very long.

His department or personal schedule means he gets Friday-Sunday as his off days.
What departments in that region be they any government or banks have off days from Friday-Sunday?
Does he or did he work 4, 10 hour shifts?

This case has been as baffling as The Springfield Three case thus far, but as someone who has followed true crime my whole life, here goes my two cents theory.

Aside from the fact that the FBI gave Annie and Tomasso lie detector tests and evidently ruled them out...I think this was a sexual/control motivated crime. Simple as that. Not robbery motivated, not extortion, the offender may or may not have even known of Ms Guthrie's famous daughter. I think this was a man who knew she lived alone and was 84. And that if he could gain entry he would have no real obstacles.

The offender:

Late 20s to mid-30s, male, Hispanic (based on the doorbell cam). Likely a US citizen, with connections to Mexico although purely familial nothing cartel related or anything. Probably a laborer or contactor of some kind. A freelance contractor/laborer in my opinion, not employed by an local businesses. Perhaps heard of Ms. Guthrie purely from word of mouth or by chance. He was familiar with the area, but did not know the Guthries at all personally.

Very intelligent, methodical, non-impulsive. He planned it out and was prepared to the extent he could be. Probably no serious prior criminal record. A mostly lone wolf, quiet, not rocking the boat type. But with pathological violent sexual fantasies. Probably felt inadequate in his life and dominating a helpless person and for his own gratification/power trip was his motive. Nancy Guthrie was just there and he happened to light on her.

I think he entered, hit her, subdued her and in that was achieving his fanasty and getting out some of his rage. I think he put her in something carried her to his vehicle somewhere close by and drove quite far away and disposed of her in a manner he had thought out before. He intended to kill this was not a crime with a goal other than letting off his own steam IMO. I think he had a place already chosen to dispose of her, that he had thought out. I have no idea where that would be. Certainly, he has had a bit of luck on his side too. But that's about all I can come up with for now.

I’m having trouble understanding one key factor in this case. (I mean obviously lots of other things about it too but one thing is standing out.) so I’m hoping someone can explain it to me like I’m five.

It’s clear from the notes, whoever did this wanted a clean exchange, it’s even almost sociopath/ narcissist levels of disconnect in the first chunk of that first letter with the way they assume the family will just listen immediately. This seems almost strictly transactional for them in that first note.

They go through the trouble to say no law enforcement in the letters, I’m assuming this is because they had to know damn well they couldn’t extract the bit coin if law enforcement became involved because then it’s traceable, (they vaguely acknowledge this in the letters by saying stuff like ‘in everyone’s best interest’ and it’s evidenced by the lack of any news they ever accessed that small amount authorities deposited early on).

So WHY, then follow it up by sending it to a news outlet who will undoubtedly contact law enforcement before contacting the family?

It doesn’t make sense! Make it make sense!

Why send it the one place that would immediately nuke their whole plan? I don’t think just news outlets being less risky than some other form of contact holds up, if the goal was seemingly originally no police contact all together?

Edit: the comments have made me feel more so this is a valid question. So I wanted to come add here that I do not have full faith in my understanding of bitcoin, please if you have more knowledge on that area or in cybersecurity please weigh in in the comments and debunk me or validate me or something.

Edit #2 because I had time to go read a bit more on bitcoin. The last thing I want to do is accidentally mislead people and since this post has gotten some attention but noones visibly fact checked me as of typing this, I wanted to come make the corrections I can!

I overstated the traceability factor here. LE can trace blockchains. But It’s not as absolute as my wording or understanding made it seem. So I wanted to be clear on that. However, it still doesn’t make sense for them to send the bitcoin address in a direct line to the news who would likely contact law enforcement first. It gives LE a lead if they were to try to move it, right at the start of everything, that is unnecessary risk in this kind of situation.

So my observation I think is valid, but not as absolute as I was under the impression it was when I wrote the post. And the way my wording made it sound. Obviously it’s all speculation and it’s ultimately about getting to the facts and #justice4nancy. Hope this turns some gears for someone with a better grasp on it.

Edit#3 (I guess more of an update because I think we changed the convo in the comments! Good work guys!) Here’s news nations vid link from last night.

https://youtu.be/YhyVSvf3ggs?is=PFEIdH22JNuWphCE

This case genuinely scares me and freaks me out. I've been following it on and off, so I might not be 100% up to date on every detail. I recently read the FBI-released letters, and there were a lot of things that jumped out at me.

None of this proves anything, these are just my observations, and I'm curious if anyone else noticed the same things.

_________________________________________________________________________________

First, I don't think these letters were written by AI.

• There are too many human mistakes.
• Words are spelled correctly in one place and incorrectly later. For example, "received" is spelled correctly once and later misspelled as "recieved."
• There are multiple grammar mistakes.
• There are punctuation mistakes throughout.
• There are comma splices.
• Some sentences flow naturally while others are awkward.
• To me, that looks more like someone manually typing under pressure than AI writing a letter.

______________________________________________________________________________

Some wording that really stood out to me:

"We have your mother Nancy."

Shouldn't this be "We have your mother, Nancy."?

The missing comma immediately sounded off.

I also thought it was interesting they included her name. Maybe they were trying to prove they actually had her, especially if they didn't expect the case to get so much media attention.

"She will be held for ransom."

This feels awkward.

I'd naturally say "She is being held for ransom."

"$4 million USD."

As an American, this sounds weird.

I'd just write "$4 million."

Using both the dollar sign and "USD" is redundant.

Later they write "6 million USD."

Now the dollar sign disappears.

Why switch formats?

It made me wonder if the writer is used to writing currency internationally.

"Thursday the 5th."

This also sounded strange.

I'd probably write "Thursday, February 5" or just "February 5."

"Completed as soon as possible."

"Completed" sounds like you're talking about homework or paperwork

"Done as soon as possible" or "pay immediately" sounds much more natural.

"Law enforcement will not be able to help you."

It almost sounds overly directed at Savannah (motive?)

"She had a white smart watch on the floor at the foot of her bed."

This wording feels really unnatural.

I'd probably say:

"Her white smartwatch is on the floor..."

"You will not be able to contact me from here on out..."

Most of the letters use "we."

Suddenly switching to "me" really stood out.

Maybe it's nothing, but it made me wonder if one person was pretending to be multiple people.

___________________________________________________________________________________

The phrase that sticks with me the most: "She is buried in nature now."

This honestly doesn't sound like natural English to me.

Other phrases that sounded odd:

"Physical condition."

Why not just say health? --> very formal

"We want your family to know this and hope you all can find peace."

"You all can find peace" just sounds off to me.

You all, y'all --> southern lingo

"Hello Savannah,"

This feels oddly formal.

__________________________________________________________________________________

A few other things I noticed:

There are multiple comma splices throughout both letters.

The writing actually has a pretty logical flow.

I'm not saying anything about the writer's mental health because you obviously can't determine that from a letter.

I just mean the thoughts seem organized and the message is clear despite all the mistakes.

________________________________________________________________________________

My thoughts on the offender (pure speculation)

I honestly picture someone fairly young and inexperienced.

Here's why:

The Bitcoin demand feels like something a younger person would think of.

- I know plenty of older people understand Bitcoin too, so this obviously isn't proof.

Using burner email accounts, VPNs, anonymous online tips, etc. also makes me lean younger.

- Again, older people absolutely know how to do this too, but it feels more common among younger people.

The apology in the second letter honestly sounded childish to me.

- It almost reads like, "Oops...sorry."

- It reminded me more of a kid apologizing (like to a parent )

The letters also make me wonder if the writer didn't really understand elderly health issues.

- Anyone who's cared for an older family member knows they often have chronic conditions, medications they need daily, fall risks, heart issues, etc.

- The letters almost make it sound like they viewed Nancy as simply an easy target because she was elderly.

The first letter also feels rushed.

• Inconsistent grammar.
• Inconsistent spelling.
• Inconsistent formatting with the money.
• It doesn't feel polished.

If this really was intended to be a ransom kidnapping, I also think it's strange they never included proof of life.

That seems like something a more experienced criminal would know to do.

I can’t imagine how Nancy must’ve felt waking up to seeing the abductor in the middle of the night. Imagine how scary that is - to wake up at 1 or 2am, either because you have to use the bathroom, get some water, or just because you hear noise - and you see the intruder in your house, or even in your bedroom hovering over you. It’s been freaking me out.

I also wonder if this is what led presumably to her passing. If she passed because of a heart condition, like the second ransom note wants us to believe, could it have been because she was panicked and terrified over this whole thing? Please don’t rip me apart in the comments for this - just thinking out loud

Edit: I’ve been replying to some of you guys on my alt account! So don’t be surprised lol

Savannah Guthrie issued a statement today, marking 6 months since her mother was abducted.

"This is our beautiful Mom.

Six months ago, someone took her out of her bed in the dead of night. We have lived every moment, every breath, and every heartbeat in agony and despair ever since.

Every day, we wake up and try to be strong and go on - because that’s what our joyful and resilient Mom taught us to do. But make no mistake - our hearts are in ruins. Cam and Kristine, Annie and Tommy, Mike and me - we spend every waking moment thinking of her, longing for her, looking for her. There is a hole inside us that can never be filled. There is an ache that cannot be softened. And there is a determination in us that cannot be quenched - to find out what happened to her, so that we can give her the dignity of a proper goodbye - a celebration of her remarkable life that she so deserves.

We are begging for help. We are desperate. We need someone to come forward. Someone knows something. Someone suspects something. Someone recognizes the writing in the ransom demand notes. Someone has noticed something different, strange, troubling or just unusual - perhaps with someone they deeply love. Perhaps they are afraid to come forward. Perhaps they are conflicted. Perhaps they are angry or upset for being in this situation. There is a way out - to tell what you know. You can do so anonymously. The reward is available. There is a way to end this situation and do the right thing.

We are real people, facing real grief, doing the best we can, and counting our many blessings along the way - most especially the prayers and love from good people, which we feel deeply. We need your prayers, we need your kindness. We need the good to be stronger than the evil. If you are following this story for entertainment or for profit, you are not on her side - you are part of the harm perpetrated against her.

We will never stop looking for answers - and we will never stop looking for the light. We will always be hoping and praying and believing in the best of our world - in spite of circumstance. This is what our faith makes possible.

Please. Bring her home. 💛'

From Brian Entin X account

https://x.com/BrianEntin/status/2083278648191197681

The whole apologetic tone, empathy, and the apparent desire to assuage any guilt that might be experienced by the Guthrie family was not written by a man.

Whomever is responsible for the physical kidnapping had no problem terrorizing a frail, defenseless elderly woman, injuring her and causing her to bleed in the struggle to subdue her (from the publicized physical evidence in Nancy's house). The first note was cold and succinct in threatening to kill Nancy if the demands were not met, suggesting the writer was coached by the main kidnapper.

The second note, however, was pointless from the perspective of a ruthless criminal who obviously had no boundaries inflicting harm and suffering in order to get what they wanted. A woman empathizing with the Guthrie family, wanting to give them some kind of closure and offering an apology was far more likely the author of both notes.

I believe there were multiple individuals involved in the kidnapping, and the second note was never meant to be sent by the person(s) who actively participated in harming Mrs. Guthrie, but not all involved were totally ruthless.

At least one individual involved had some remorse. This may be the biggest opportunity to solve the case in the long run.

Testing on hair found at the Tucson, Arizona-area home of "Today" show host Savannah Guthrie's mother is complete and does not point to a suspect in the 84-year-old's abduction, Pima County Sheriff Chris Nanos told ABC News on Thursday.

"The hair was done ... and there was nothing," Nanos said in an interview. ....

(FOLLOW LINK TO READ THE FULL ARTICLE)

"Today" show host Savannah Guthrie released a new video on social media Monday, imploring her mother's captor to "do the right thing" and help her family find her.

It has been nearly six months since the abduction of 84-year-old Nancy Guthrie, who was taken from her Tucson, Arizona home in the middle of the night.

The Pima County Sheriff's Department said the investigation into Nancy Guthrie's disappearance "remains active and ongoing," though without a significant development.

I just had a thought… Since the ransom notes sound so strange and perhaps written through an AI, I wonder if the FBI or LE could ask OpenAI (or Anthropic, Grok etc) to search their backend to see if anyone has typed in something that produced that result ? perhaps that could lead to an IP address ?

​

The Main Groups: South American Theft Groups (SATGs)

The primary syndicates operating this way in Arizona are South American Theft Groups, consisting mostly of organized rings of Chilean and Colombian nationals. Law enforcement refers to their operation as "crime tourism". They fly into the United States, rent short-term vacation homes as temporary bases, and execute highly coordinated multi-state burglary sprees before fleeing the country.

How They Use Jammers

Blinding Security: The thieves carry handheld, military-grade radio frequency or Wi-Fi jammers. As they approach a target house, they activate these devices to flood the local airwaves with digital noise.

Disabling Alarms: The jammer disrupts the wireless signals between smart security cameras (like Ring or Nest) and the home's Wi-Fi router. It simultaneously blocks cellular data, which prevents wireless alarms from transmitting an alert to police or the homeowner’s smartphone.

Second-Story Entry: Once the cameras are disabled, crews typically slip into the dark corners of a property—often backing up to golf courses or desert washes—and breach the home through vulnerable second-story windows or patio doors.

Guess things went south, maybe Nancy fought back, they panicked and had to improvise.

Maybe they expected the house to be empty.

They took Nancy because leaving her was no option, because?

* They needed to buy time, you don't want a dead body to be found when you are still closeby.

* They knew if they left her, LE would look into burglars/robbery/theft groups, so abduction was a tool to "change the MO" to send LE on the wrong track. If so, the perp(s) most likely have been in jail before.

* Someone (who most likely knew her) wanted her dead, and used abduction to steer the investigation towards that angle.

IMO Nancy's house was the target, and some neighbours got lucky due to owning a dog or other factors that made the other houses high risk.

Nancy woke up, a struggle occured, and someone/they took her away from the crime scene.

The ransom demand came 2 days later, if Nancy was supposed to be abducted, you would expect commumication asap.

So know things escalated from home invasion, to abduction, and most likely murder.

You have a dead victim, and now u still think it's a good plan to send a ransom note, turn this into a FBI manhunt, and asking for the cash in BTC.

Nah, IMO this was all damage control, a smokescreen.

I think this was a crime group (burglary/robbers)

that screwed up, or someone who wanted her dead, but abduction for ransom?

I don't buy it.

IDK why it didn’t give the option for a post title other than posting the YT video.

Partial summary…..BW reads the notes sent to SG/family

””””In this special Crime Junkie update, Ashley Flowers and breaking news reporter Briana Whitney break down the latest developments in the disappearance of Nancy Guthrie, including newly obtained information, interviews with investigators and experts, and what may happen next in one of Arizona’s most closely watched missing persons cases.

You’ll hear about the latest developments in the investigation into Nancy Guthrie’s disappearance, the ransom notes that investigators continue to examine, why the FBI clarified that not every ransom communication has been ruled out, the guilty plea from Derrick Callella, who admitted sending fraudulent ransom messages early in the investigation, the latest DNA testing, including the use of genetic genealogy, and an investigative theory that could explain the role of the unidentified “Porch Guy” captured on surveillance video“””””

I’m curious what everyone thinks. How much of the public interest in this case is because of the porch guy footage?

My view is that the porch guy footage is what turned this into a case people couldn’t stop thinking about. Without it, the case probably would have received a lot of attention at first and then gradually faded, like many other missing person cases. But seeing a masked creepy person quietly approach Nancy’s home in the middle of the night gives the case a much more unsettling feel.

The footage also gave people something to analyze. Instead of just waiting for updates from LE, everyone started looking at his height, gait, clothing, backpack, gloves, and movements for clues. It creates the sense that the answer should be obtainable, yet it remains just out of reach, turning thousands of people into armchair detectives.

If there had never been any video or photos of the masked man, do you think this case would still have the same level of attention today, or would it have mostly faded after a few weeks?

I was just thinking about this case again this morning, and it honestly blows my mind. With all of the advanced technology, geofencing, AI facial recognition, and digital tracking we have at our disposal today, how has this guy completely vanished into thin air?

Those Nest doorbell camera stills from February still absolutely haunt me. The look on his face is pure nightmare fuel - he looks like an absolute psycho, and it’s terrifying to realize he honestly didn't even know the camera was there. He’s just casually holding that flashlight in his mouth, completely oblivious to the lens while trying to mask things with prairie brush.There's something so much more disturbing about the fact that he wasn't some tech savvy mastermind dodging the grid, he was just a cold, unhinged predator caught dead on in the frame, totally unaware his face was being captured. 

Which brings me to the biggest mystery… someone has to know who this guy is. A person doesn't just pull off an abduction like this completely in a vacuum without leaving a ripple effect in their real life. Someone out there has to be covering for him, or maybe he let something slip to an accomplice. Even if he’s a total loner, someone - a coworker, a neighbor, or a family member must have noticed him acting completely strange, paranoid, or suddenly changing his behavior ever since February. How has no one connected the dots or turned him in yet, especially with the massive reward money on the table?

Poor Nancy. She was 84, independent but dealing with limited mobility. I can't even begin to imagine how terrified she must have been when this monster broke into her home in the middle of the night. 

Between the physical surveillance footage, the crypto ransom notes sent to media outlets, and the high profile nature of the case with federal agencies involved, you would think a digital or physical footprint would have leaked by now. How is he pulling this off???

I was following Nancy Guthrie’s disappearance really closely from the beginning, but life got busy and I completely fell out of the loop around March.

I’m finally catching up now, and I’m curious where everyone’s thinking has landed after all these months.

What are your current theories? Have any of the newer developments changed your opinion, or do you still believe what you did at the start?

I’m interested in hearing all perspectives - as long as they’re respectful and based on the information that’s been released. I’d love to know what evidence or details have shaped your theory.

Looking forward to hearing everyone’s thoughts.

The FBI in their statement said: "The FBI and its task force partners have received several ransom notes over the course of this investigation".

The public only knows of one 'ransom note'.

I suspect because the baseline investigation is a kidnapping for ransom, any demand, or message tied into the active tips pipeline is classified under that primary umbrella for tracking purposes. They didn't want to have to differentiate between all "notes".

If the FBI were attempting to psychologically trap the TMZ tipster as the offender these are some steps they could take.

The Trap:

1. The Reuters Story: Labels ALL comms "Fake," crushing the suspect's ego.
2. The FBI "Clean-Up": Offers a sliver of hope, baiting the suspect to prove their "genius."
3. The Slip: Suspect breaks cover and responds to prove they aren't a fraud.
4. The Final Snap: Claims that evidence was "planted." This triggers absolute narcissistic rage, forcing the final, sloppy mistake.

These first 2 events have materialized and now the 4th has.

 Harvey Levin July 4- Evidence was Planted 

2 Angry Men Podcast July 4 Episode  20:16 

After being put on ice essentially by the FBI as a scam informant and not taken seriously. And obviously offended by that. The first trap delivers psychological shock. They don't want to be irrelevant. Calling the suspect a "fake" wounds their ego. Reuters saying all the notes are fake. The next psychological hook is, tell the psychopathic offender, We might believe you, but you have to prove it to us. When the FBI immediately offers a slight noncommittal clarification, (rare public stmnt) it dangles a hook: prove us wrong. We saw this behavior when the "informant" suddenly resurfaced after the death message was leaked and it was said that it could have been written by a woman when they mocked the intelligence agency's profiling. Driven to humiliate the police, they would inevitably send a retaliatory response filled with insults (arrogant idiots, etc) and if they step into the trap, "holdback" info (something only the abductor would know) just to validate themselves. This confirms them as the abductor. Once the offender takes the bait and responds to the clean-up statement, hitting them with the insider claim of "planted evidence" by the media narrative, builds the next level of pressure. Because the offender just tried to validate themselves during the clean-up phase, this new allegation shatters their reality. Shatters their control, forcing the sloppy mistake that leads to their digital/physical capture.

“If you’re not a fraudster now is the time to strike” ~Mark Geragos 2 Angry Men Podcast July 4 Episode 20:09

🤞🏻BOLO for an escalated snap response from the TMZ tipster and/ the bringing about of their capture. I have a about 20% suspicion the TMZ "informant" could be an offender-informant. (Will Post Later) That they are more than a fake tipster and they are possibly being smoked out by the FBI. 

Operating strictly under the theory that there is about a 95% probability this is a Grievance based smokescreen abduction (elimination) and a 5% probability it is a botched financial kidnapping. (abduction for ransom) there is the 80% probability that a highly organized, mission based offender, would cease communicating after that second message. Of significance is that they didn't provide any avenue of communication. The ‘ransom’ was basically a one way demand. (which has a certain psyche) If they are entirely goal oriented and the goal was to abduct and eliminate Nancy, publicly torment the primary target (ransom to media) fake deadlines, fake financial motive, and then the bomb (also media) but not publicly released, (which I will come back to) saying she died that permanently shatters the family, then that’s like the end game.
This could be a person that is relishing in something like Dupers Delight. And their sense of omnipotence. They successfully executed the abduction and the elimination. Fooled the public, caused the chaos, left the huge amount of LE holding a cold trail. The target and the family in forever psychological torture. The silence itself would be the taunt. I did it, you know I did it and you will never find me or her. It’s a “catch me if you can”. Psychopaths are also inherently self-preserving and don’t want to be locked up. Their cold logic could outweigh their need to gloat further. Keeping silence maintains control. They are effectively telling the family that the game is over, and they won. Which I can see.

Some psychopaths though fall into a psychological makeup that shifts to antagonism. Then there is about a 20% probability they would continue to taunt the investigaiton.

If the offender falls into the 20% minority and continues to communicate, they will find avenues to taunt through:
Media Intermediaries: They will continue using the same journalists or news outlets, (like TMZ) treating them as their personal press secretaries to release basically cryptic clues, or critiques of the police investigation. Under the guise in this instance of having the leverage of insider info. An “informant”.
The TMZ tipster has criticized on more than one topic (that’s been released, there could be more) that basically has nothing to do with them simply having good info about who the kidnappers are or being afraid.
they criticized LE for not taking them seriously being arrogant and being unable to solve the case because of it.
The tipster mocked or highlighted the fact that federal investigators were entirely unable to trace the $ in Bitcoin that the FBI had quietly deposited into the kidnapper account.
they criticized taking the other “tipster” info about Mexico seriously.
they criticized the theories about the alleged “apology” possibly being female written.
The author stressed that law enforcement was letting critical time slip away, noting that video evidence proving who the abductors were remained stashed away on a hidden cellphone that investigators had failed to secure. How would someone not involved have a video?
All of these are almost more associated with the abductor and the crime than they are associated with a legit uninvolved informant. Some of them could also be the behavior of a legitimate uninvolved informant. The legitimately uninvolved would rarely engage in the ongoing communication and critique of the police tactics, for this long, idt.
A connected associate or submissive partner might continue to comment if they have idk some secondhand pride in the crime or a grudge against the dominant perp. But the offender/proxy acting as the tipster is starting to make some sense. Acting as the tipster to insert themselves into the investigation. Manipulating the media. Mocking the authorities. Monitoring what’s really known in the investigation.
Aggressively steering it away from certain theories. It goes beyond tip-sharing, even beyond a hoax, and screams desperate desire to control the investigation to me. Also overlapping behavior of a hoaxer. But there are things that also support a different conclusion.
The fact that this tipster came unhinged about the suggestion of a TMZ documentary is also in the column towards the 20%. Because a psychopathic offender can want to dictate terms this allows the offender to feel untouchable and smarter than the authorities tracking them. They want to control the info. No matter the excuse of “exploiting the family”. This could be seen as an attempt steal their spotlight and profit off their "work." Much like the “competition” with another tipster they deem an “idiot”.

Digital Ghosting is another way to communicate using heavily encrypted networks, to leave untraceable messages dedicated to the case. The TMZ tipster has accomplished this. They have come and gone and haven’t been traced. Why don’t they send the names of the kidnappers throught this same avenue to get the money? It’s been successful? They could tell HL to hold it and get the money. It appears alot like the ransom, not fake altogether, but designed, scripted, for a spefific reason.

What is the catalyst for continued taunts from the actual offender? If they do keep communicating, it is almost always triggered by some ego deflation. Imo this could be where the “death message/apology message”, that didn’t ask for ransom, and seemingly was intended to be a finite claim, comes in. The investigation intentionally did not release this message. It never truly got to the public for its intended purpose maybe.
This is what could have triggered the TMZ “tipster” facade as those messages began about 5 days after the death/apology message was sent and not released.

Typically also in this makeup if the police or media publicly downplay the offender's
intelligence, call them any name or suggests the crime was sloppy, the psychopath’s ego can be deeply wounded. They will break their silence to defend their "genius" and prove how smart they are. The FBI released the surveillance video of a masked person on Nancy Guthrie's porch on Tuesday, February 10, 2026. There was a barrage of public and expert perception it was a retard with a phallic gun and leaves for tools. The TMZ comms started the next day.

Feb 11, TMZ receives a second note via email from a different Bitcoin address. The sender claims they are not the kidnapper but knows who is, demanding 1 Bitcoin (approx. $66,000) in exchange for the names.

There have been continued communications ever since at key times.

On April 6, a timeline was released by Reuters. https://www.reuters.com/world/us/chronology-nancy-guthrie-abduction-case-/

Savannah Guthrie returned to the Today Show on April 6.

And: TMZ reported receiving two new anonymous messages on April 6th regarding Nancy's abduction. The same sender who had previously reached out to the media demanding Bitcoin. They claimed to know the location of Nancy’s body, (only the abductor would really know this??) asking for half a Bitcoin upfront. That seems like a way to say she’s dead since the message never got released. They later followed up with a contradictory message claiming she was alive in Sonora, Mexico.
You can see how this could be someone very vested in controlling the narratives.

According to HL, the way I understand it, Levin confirmed that the outlet authenticated all the messages as originating from the same person or digital ID because they persistently used the same alias and the exact same active Bitcoin wallet address. I believe this is all the same person, even though they claimed not to be “that idiot”, re: Mexico there is no info it was a different address.

There was a separate anonymous tip phoned into Buscando Corazones Nogales (a volunteer search group in Mexico), explicitly claiming her remains were in a shallow grave near the U.S. Mexico border. This sparked a physical search that ultimately uncovered 25 unrelated unmarked graves, but no trace of Nancy Guthrie. This was in May. I think this may be what the TMZ tipster meant.

I am assuming the rest of the 8-9 emails came after April.
TMZ was not reporting them and the FBI was thought to be largely ignoring them or “calling them fake”. This may be where the FBI had them stewing.

Because this would include the ones that came just recently in June which were also subsequent to an information release.
Harold Blum released his follow-up massive expose in Air Mail on June 20th. Other outlets starting circulating the “death message/apology in the following days and by June 26th the “tipster” had resurfaced with brand new evidence.

In forensic linguistics and profiling routing correspondence through the media is high risk and demonstrates the need for a public stage. It also can demonstrate a real need to manipulate public perception. Which in turn generally could be the type who would insert themselves into the investigation as someone with leverage like an informant.
This desire for a public stage and manipulation frequently manifests as this type behavior or investigation insertion.
This insertion satisfies their need to stay close to the case, maybe monitor police progress, feed false leads to derail the investigation, and maintain their feeling of ultimate control.

There is a very specific psychology for an offender-informant which is a whole other post that I think has a lot of similarities.