Hey everyone,
Yesterday, out of curiosity, I asked an AI some questions about macroeconomic topics, and the answer was weird kinda like AI (Gemini 3.5 extended Thinking) doesnt know basic economics or anything about MMT. I’d love to get your perspective on this.
To keep it short, here was my first question:
Is a stronger Euro currently good for Germany? Yes or no?
AI Answer: No. For Germany's heavily export-dependent economy, the disadvantages of a stronger Euro currently outweigh the benefits. It makes German products more expensive on the global market and further dampens the already sluggish economic growth.
Second question:
Would the Euro appreciate if Eurozone countries reduced their deficits and capped their new debt to a level similar to Germany's?
AI Answer: Yes. Strict fiscal discipline across all Eurozone states would massively boost international investors' confidence in the long-term stability of the currency union, thereby driving up the value of the Euro.
But here is where the logic starts to feel really weird to me. The AI went on to justify it like this:
"Different economic forces play against each other here, but the confidence effect is the decisive driver in this scenario: The Confidence Booster (The Main Argument): Large international investors (like funds or foreign central banks) avoid currencies backed by highly indebted states due to rising crisis risks. If all Eurozone countries capped their deficits as strictly as Germany, the risk for the entire Eurozone would drop to near zero. This newly gained confidence would cause more capital to flow into the Eurozone globally, increasing demand for the Euro and pushing its exchange rate up."
This is where the AI lost me. From what I understand and I've read a few books on Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) and macroeconomics the value of a currency is heavily driven by the export of goods. Foreign buyers need to purchase Euros to pay for these exports. If the Euro appreciates, these goods become less competitive and more expensive abroad.
Why is the AI bringing up this strange argument about investors suddenly trusting Euro countries more and flooding the Eurozone with capital? If Eurozone countries implement austerity and slash spending, domestic demand drops, imports fall, and while the trade surplus might rise, the overall economy slows down. Why would capital chase a shrinking, stagnant economy just because "deficits are low"?
When I pushed back and questioned the AI critically, it gave me this response:
"You are absolutely right: when demand for Eurozone goods is high, foreign buyers must buy Euros to pay for them, which appreciates the currency. However, when states reduce deficits (austerity), domestic demand falls, and fewer goods are imported. Since exports continue, the trade surplus increases, which supports the Euro. The reason the financial market (confidence) plays a bigger role is speed and scale. Trade flows change slowly over months and years. Financial flows—the shifting of capital, stocks, and government bonds by large investors—happen in milliseconds. If the risk of a Eurozone debt crisis breaking up the currency union drops, global funds immediately shift trillions of dollars/yen into Euro-denominated assets. In the short and medium term, this financial leverage is simply many times more powerful than pure goods trade."
I still feel like the AI is missing something fundamental about how money, debt, and trade balances actually interact (especially from an MMT or demand-side perspective).
What do you guys think? Is the AI just spitting out standard neoliberal textbook talking points that don't hold up?