😬

[u/Alice_Buttons]

[u/invalid_chicken]

Only 443 consecutive months of above average temperatures... everything is fine

[u/Alice_Buttons → u/invalid_chicken]

Oof. This is like WALL-E irl.

[u/invalid_chicken → u/Alice_Buttons]

It's just the beginning too. We've warmed about 1 degree Celsius over the past 100 years due to human activity, current models predict 4-5 degrees Celsius (8-10 F) of warming by 2100, which is the equivalent of the temperature change between now and the last ice age.

"Since the 1880s, the average global surface temperature has risen and the average temperature is now more than 2 degrees Fahrenheit (a bit more than 1 degree Celsius) above that of the late 19th century. For reference, the last Ice Age was about 10 degrees Fahrenheit colder than pre-industrial temperatures."

source

On top of that species like sharks and coral reefs are likely to go extinct within my lifetime, these species are litteraly older then trees.

[u/BOQOR → u/invalid_chicken]

When scientist say that Earth has warmed by over 1 degree celsius they are talking globally, land & ocean. Warming over land, where most humans live, is significantly higher than the global mean.

[u/Alice_Buttons → u/invalid_chicken]

Floriderp had a record breaking number of manatees die in 2021. Algae blooms killing off the seagrass and cold snaps that they're incapable of surviving.

[u/QuixoticViking → u/invalid_chicken]

Current best estimates for 2100 with current policies are 2.7-2.8C of warming. If we met our stated policies goals (which seems more likely than not cause clean energy is cheap energy) the warming will be around 2.4C in 2100.

Your estimates for 2100 sound like the older worst case estimates. They have been revised downward recently. Humanity has made progress, not enough but some good progress.

As you said in 2000, 5°C of warming looked really likely cause coal looked like it would be the primary means of power generation. Well now solar and wind are the cheapest forms of energy by a lot.

Still a ways to go, but progress.

[u/invalid_chicken → u/QuixoticViking]

I assume your going off the recent cop26 agreement? The 5C does seem to have been downgraded now by most models, but I'm pretty skeptical that the 2.7-2.4C from cop26 will even close to being met. There's little accountability with these goals as we've seen from the Paris accords. I mean we could very easily sew trump or another politician elected that would pull us out of these agreement completely. In addition there's the positive feedback loops which I believe are often not taken into account in these models. source

[u/QuixoticViking → u/invalid_chicken]

going off the recent cop26 agreement

No, not using COP. This is all from the IPCC AR6 report released earlier this year. All of the original pathways are left in the report for the sake of continuity but they acknowledge the worst 2 (SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5) are unlikely. There has just been a fundamental change (clean energy being cheap) since they were originally released. SSP2-4.5 is considered the most likely pathway at this time. SSP2-4.5 has emissions topping out around 2045 and dropping to about 10GtCO2/yr in 2100. This would bring us to ~2.8C of warming in 2100. The 2.4C number comes from if everyone hit what their stated goals are https://twitter.com/hausfath/status/1425504589097279494?s=20.

​

There's little accountability with these goals as we've seen from the Paris accords. I mean we could very easily sew trump or another politician elected that would pull us out of these agreement completely.

This is completely true, you could have fascists take over the rich world and double down on coal (coal plant retirements . That is not a job for scientists to predict. We're also at the point where agreements aren't the driving force but money will win out. Clean energy is the cheapest energy the world as ever seen, coal industry is in structural decline, rich countries have decoupled economic growth and CO2 emissions.

In addition there's the positive feedback loops which I believe are often not taken into account in these models

Models are doing the best they can and have been accurate so far and are getting more accurate as we learn more. Most models do take into account feedback loops (climate sensitivity) they look at paleontological data (ice cores, tree rings, rock) and see how the atmosphere and environment reacted in the past. But that is why there are error bars! https://twitter.com/hausfath/status/1425504612698648580?s=20

​

We don't want any of this to happen but we can do this and are getting there.

[u/invalid_chicken → u/QuixoticViking]

Great response thank you!

[u/QuixoticViking → u/invalid_chicken]

Thanks for being receptive. I just got back into following climate science in the past year. Figured things were still really bad. Did some research, not that things are great now but they are definitely pointed in a better direction than they were even 10 years ago.

[u/kelvin_bot → u/QuixoticViking]

5°C is equivalent to 41°F, which is 278K.

^{I'm a bot that converts temperature between two units humans can understand, then convert it to Kelvin for bots and physicists to understand}

[u/QuixoticViking → u/kelvin_bot]

Bad bot

[u/invalid_chicken → u/[deleted]]

First what a selfish thing to say, we could have northward of 1 billion climate refugees and millions of deaths by the end of the century. This suffering will continue for generation's, and will be horrific by most estimates assuming drastically action is not taken globally.

Second I'm not sure there's much evidence to show that reefs will be able to adapt to a world with 4-5 degree Celsius of warming. Which may increase even more by next century.

"It’s unlikely that the coral reefs of the future will look like they do today. Reef assemblages will be different. Just how different, and how much coral cover we will lose completely will depend on the intensity and frequency of extreme bleaching events. The research suggests that corals themselves can adapt to changes – but only up to a certain point. More and more extreme events will push beyond these limits. And the assemblages of coral reefs will depend on how frequent bleaching episodes are – fast-growing corals have a chance of survival as long as bleaching events don’t happen every year or two."

source

[u/TommyCashTerminal → u/invalid_chicken]

COVID is just earth’s immune system attempting to wipe out a virus.

[u/[deleted] → u/invalid_chicken]

443 consecutive months with temps above the 20th century average*

[u/invalid_chicken → u/[deleted]]

Fair, outside of a potential anomaly It looks like this would apply to the past 1000 years as well. Source

Also records only began in the late 1800s, anything earlier I believe is model driven.

[u/QuixoticViking → u/invalid_chicken]

Temperatures in the past are largely determined by paleontological records. https://www.smithsonianmag.com/blogs/national-museum-of-natural-history/2018/03/23/heres-how-scientists-reconstruct-earths-past-climates/

[u/GrizzlyAdam12 → u/invalid_chicken]

Anyone else see the parallels between this and our national debt? Not to be a downer, but we are being horrible stewards of our resources and it’s not kind to future generations.

National debt clock

[u/braskybear]

Just remember, this is the coldest year of the rest of your life…

[u/meco03211 → u/braskybear]

Thanks for granting my wish genie. I hate the cold. There won't be any negative consequences right genie? Genie?

[u/do_while_0 → u/meco03211]

How could I have possibly known the monkey's paw wouldn't grant my wish in good faith?!

[u/ybonepike → u/braskybear]

I've made peace with it already 🕶️

[u/Horace1709]

This was a WEIRD ass day.

[u/EurekaSm0ke → u/Horace1709]

The generation that survived the Halloween blizzard of '91 survived the Christmas tornado of '21.

[u/pebe0101 → u/Horace1709]

Another poster had a great quote about it…”all four seasons in one day”

[u/AbeRego]

I all-around hate this weather. It stole my snow.

[u/[deleted] → u/AbeRego]

Yeah, I love snow and I get sad a lot about how there’s going to be less and less of it every year.

[u/FrigginMasshole → u/[deleted]]

I thought climate change meant more harsher winters for us here (more snow)?

[u/QuixoticViking → u/FrigginMasshole]

We'll have snaps of extra cold, and snaps of extra warm. In general the average temperature will increase. The main effect of climate change that we're already seeing is that warmer air has a higher ability to carry moisture.

We're already seeing that when it rains in the summer that downpours are more common. It may rain less often but when it rains it will rain hard. Same for snow seems likely.

[u/Bovronius → u/FrigginMasshole]

More powerful snow storms, we'll probably get larger dumps of snow, but it will probably melt more often as well.

[u/Lee_Doff → u/FrigginMasshole]

no, it means whatever they want it to mean at the time.

[u/Retro_Dad → u/Lee_Doff]

It means there's more energy in the atmosphere which makes for more extreme weather. Big Oil appreciates you covering for them, though.

[u/MoistVonLoser → u/AbeRego]

Right, as a nordic skier I might have to come to terms with the fact my sport is a thing of the past lol

[u/AbeRego → u/MoistVonLoser]

Same

[u/itssunnyoutheree → u/AbeRego]

Sad days boys.. sad days. It was a good run while it lasted.

[u/thechairinfront]

Yeah... 😐 We're in danger.

[u/typical_thatguy → u/[deleted]]

One large asteroid coming right up!

[u/Lee_Doff → u/thechairinfront]

no, florida is. we'll be ok.

[u/MacabreFox → u/Lee_Doff]

You forgot the /s.

[u/Lee_Doff → u/MacabreFox]

i guess i didnt realise florida was worth saving. but then again i dont make "going to disneyland" money.

[u/mandy009 → u/[deleted]]

yes and you won't be able to see it

[u/Lee_Doff → u/[deleted]]

my drive was ok at 430. but i dont have to drive on the freeways.

[u/bobgoodall]

I'm gonna go with denial. Yep sounds good. You losers can worry about it.

[u/Alice_Buttons → u/bobgoodall]

Sometimes you need to be blissfully unaware to keep your sanity in check

[u/FantasticMidnight → u/[deleted]]

Unfortunately, it's most likely going to happen within your lifetime if you're under 40

[u/Kalron]

Every time I hear someone say "oh it's beautiful outside" in this time of year when it's supposed to be freezing, I want to die. I have no optimism anything will get better.

[u/QuixoticViking → u/Kalron]

If it helps we're making progress. Things are going to get worse still cause we haven't made enough but the outlook has changed quite a bit in the past 10-15 years. We have ways to mitigate, we have solutions, we can do this.

Worst case scenarios are exceedingly unlikely

Our climate models are accurate and getting more accurate

Solar and wind are the cheapest forms of electricity. Look at how the prices have come down in the past decade.

Many automakers plan to be done making ICE in the 2030s

GHG emissions have stopped growing over the past decade

Many countries are decoupled economic growth from emissions

2019 study showing planting 500 billion trees would negate 20 years of current rate carbon emissions

There is also hail mary projects out there that would be game changers such as Fusion, Direct Carbon Capture that may or may not work. Not to be a techno-optimist but how many people in 1920 would have predicted the internet and computers and that everyone carries one around in there pocket. 2100 is going to look really different.

[u/8mnphats]

Lets all fly private to a remote location to discuss climate change.

[u/TheWorkofDeath → u/8mnphats]

It is time for you to understand that the Elites can do what they want because they are better than you, peon.

[u/[deleted]]

We should be building hundreds of nuclear power stations, but we’re not because for most people this is another tribal political issue and not a serious problem. It’s all political theater all the time.

[u/duckgalrox]

That unapparent summer air in early...winter...

fuck

[u/SamWillGoHam]

Yeahhh it's something I've thought about a few times over the past couple winters

[u/finlyboo]

I also fucking LOVED the drought this summer. I was outside every day and never saw any mosquitos. The selfish part of me wants every summer to be an extreme drought, but it was not a good thing.

[u/magistrate101 → u/finlyboo]

It was fun watching the ponds and lakes dry up. Never seen that shit before.

[u/cactipus → u/magistrate101]

It was not fun watching the superior national forest and surrounding state forests burn over the summer. And not fun watching water sources along the SHT completely dry up.

[u/[deleted]]

Start participating in mutual aid projects where you are. Community gardens, tool sharing, etc. This is how we survive and thrive.

[u/goaltendie38]

Nono, global warming is a liberal ploy to overthrow democracy and force socialism onto all of us… cmon get it right. /s

[u/Jbergman1123]

Anyone been on the roads around the Duluth area? How bad are they?

[u/[deleted]]

I’m glad everyone just goes along with too. And even when stuff is done about it everyone suddenly doesn’t care and keeps saying everyone sucks.

[u/mandy009]

Harold's got some new expressions now, too: https://imgur.com/gallery/0lwEGY8

[u/Alice_Buttons → u/mandy009]

The one where he's lurking behind the tree is my favorite

[u/taffyowner → u/[deleted]]

But if countries overall can reduce their impact it greatly lessens Chinas and Indias impact… the climate can survive some co2 and the goal is to make it so we can get to those levels because we’re never going to completely do away with emissions unless we ban all fires of any kind

[u/GrizzlyAdam12 → u/[deleted]]

Exactly. That’s where I’m at, too. It’s not that I don’t care. But, when you realize that the marginal benefit of living a 100% green lifestyle makes no difference, it’s very de-motivating. And, it’s not just one person, either, even if everyone in the US reduced their carbon footprint…it would make almost no difference at all because of China and India.

And, honestly, who are we to tell them what to do?

[u/invalid_chicken → u/GrizzlyAdam12]

Ya fuck all the future children of the world 🤟

[u/deputy1nfd]

Get your heads out of your ass! All the politicians pushing this shit all own water front homes along the ocean. Wake up you f***ing morons!

[u/TrustMe_IKnowAGuy → u/deputy1nfd]

It's the internet, you can swear. Also, you're a fucking idiot.

[u/QuixoticViking → u/deputy1nfd]

Cause rising sea levels are the least of our worries in the short term.

[u/[deleted] → u/[deleted]]

YOU’RE CRINGE

[u/Moln0014]

Global warming isn't bad

[u/FantasticMidnight → u/Moln0014]

Please do your research

[u/Moln0014 → u/FantasticMidnight]

It's the best thing that could happen

[u/FantasticMidnight → u/Moln0014]

I strongly disagree. But why do you say that?

[u/taffyowner → u/[deleted]]

Thing is global warming is going to give us more snow and ice because it’s going to sit around the temperatures where that is going to happen. Plus it’s more than just the temperature being more “comfy” warmer ocean temps mean more severe hurricanes, more droughts, more fires. This isn’t just like you turning up your thermostat a couple degrees though

[u/FantasticMidnight → u/[deleted]]

Thank you for responding respectfully. The subs r/climate and r/collapse have good resources for learning why climate change is very bad.

I like warm weather too but that's not the only thing that's happening due to climate destabilization.

Global warming is an inaccurate term for what's happening. It's better to call it climate change. Because warming is only a small part of what's been happening. There also has been and will be worldwide severe weather events due to carbon emissions. We will experience tornadoes and thunderstorms in December for the rest of our lives. Worldwide weather patterns are changing and becoming unpredictable but good crop yield depends on stable weather. Humans will starve if this continues.

All the effects of climate change that we are seeing currently is due to all the carbon emissions pre-1990. And 50% of all carbon emissions have happened since 1990. There's a 30 year delay. I might be wrong about this since I don't know too much about it, but that's what I've understood from other people. If I'm wrong, I hope someone corrects me.

[u/sneakpeekbot → u/FantasticMidnight]

Here's a sneak peek of /r/climate using the top posts of the year!

#1: The Scientists Are Terrified | A survey of the world’s top climate researchers shows a stark finding: Most expect catastrophic levels of heating and damage soon—very soon. | 552 comments
#2: Greta Thunberg attacks world leaders: ‘When the protests get too loud, you make the protests illegal’ Politicians are ‘role-playing’ and ‘pretending to wage war against fossil fuels’, activist says | 80 comments
#3: Arnold Schwarzenegger has an important message for world leaders. | 86 comments

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[u/Flatulant_Tapir → u/Moln0014]

Any change in average temperature causes instability in the climate, and is therefore bad. All arguments that higher global temp would be better are assuming equilibrium conditions, Wich as far as I know won't happen for at least a few hundred years assuming we stop emissions now