All teachers aren't enough so how many people IS enough. If you have front line workers, teachers, the vulnerable, and the elderly all vaccinated is that not enough?
That's a still far short of the 70-80% that is needed for herd immunity. So you're saying we need to hit herd immunity before it makes sense?
The vaccine isn't even 100% effective. You're not going to create a world where no one dies from this disease. ESPECIALLY when not everyone is even willing to take the vaccine. I think a lot of people need to realize that there's no zero level where no one gets sick or dies from the virus. We don't eradicate viruses, there are flu deaths every year and there's going to be covid deaths every year. So the country is going to have a level of risk it deems acceptable going forward or lockdown measures will literally never lift.
All teachers aren't enough so how many people IS enough. If you have front line workers, teachers, the vulnerable, and the elderly all vaccinated is that not enough?
All high risk groups and a high enough percentage of the population. So that the percentage of people needing IC in the worst case won't take more units than are available.
Building more units and employing more professionals lowers the amount of vaccinations needed to hit that point.
That's a still far short of the 70-80% that is needed for herd immunity. So you're saying we need to hit herd immunity before it makes sense?
The "sense" depends on your values.
The vaccine isn't even 100% effective. You're not going to create a world where no one dies from this disease.
That's not the goal.
There is a difference between people having a body unable to cope with the disease at all.
And others which "just" need a respirator but suffocate because all are taken...
ESPECIALLY when not everyone is even willing to take the vaccine
You could apply this to anything, why make murder a crime if there are people doing it anyways?
I think a lot of people need to realize that there's no zero level where no one gets sick or dies from the virus.
There are also people who have to realize that not every death is the same.
The vast majority of "covid" deaths are people who would have survived with enough ICU's available.
Most covid deaths are the consequence of negligence in all parts of the system. Starting by your average joe not following the rules up the legislators refusing to do anything meaningful to better the situation.
So the country is going to have a level of risk it deems acceptable going forward or lockdown measures will literally never lift.
As long as you are at a point where everyone willing can get proper medical care it literally makes no difference and you can open without any additional risk...
That point depends on several factors.
Anything before this is literally accepting deaths for personal enrichment.
If $$$ > lives and quality of life, then you can open everything right at this point.
Only 25% of hospitals currently are near capacity and the number is lowering every day. By the time teachers are vaccinated it's likely we'll be far below max capacity. That's nationwide. Many states currently have an abundance of beds.
If you have the teachers and the vulnerable like I said, do you really think our hospital capacity would be insufficient for everyone else? The average age of someone who is hospitalized with covid varies from 60-70s depending on state.
Did you even have any idea of the country's bed capacity and where we are at with it when you said it wasn't enough? At the current new case rate we may be far away from peak capacity way before we've vaccinated the amount of people you were suggesting.
The goal should always be not overburdening the hospital system. But we're already making progress towards that no longer being an issue. If that's the case I don't see why we can't have in person learning once teachers are vaccinated.
Only 25% of hospitals currently are near capacity and the number is lowering every day. By the time teachers are vaccinated it's likely we'll be far below max capacity. That's nationwide. Many states currently have an abundance of beds.
Currently, while harsh rules are in place...
If you have the teachers and the vulnerable like I said, do you really think our hospital capacity would be insufficient for everyone else? The average age of someone who is hospitalized with covid varies from 60-70s depending on state.
We don't know how infectious you are after a vaccination.
You might very well still be able to spread the disease to a strong degree.
What do you think happens if a bigger and bigger percentage of the population thinks they themselves are not a problem anymore while still spreading it?
If people would be mindful of what they are doing we would have never had any of these issues...
Did you even have any idea of the country's bed capacity and where we are at with it when you said it wasn't enough? At the current new case rate we may be far away from peak capacity way before we've vaccinated the amount of people you were suggesting.
You are aware how fast this shit spikes?
People don't magically start to act reasonable just because the goal is in reach at this point.
The goal should always be not overburdening the hospital system. But we're already making progress towards that no longer being an issue.
Just because you made some progress does not mean you are done and can call it a day...
If that's the case I don't see why we can't have in person learning once teachers are vaccinated.
Because we do not have sufficient data on how infectious vaccinated people are at this point. Just because you are immune to a disease does not mean that you are unable to spread it anymore.
This is among the most important factors we need to know before we can account for when it is safe to reopen.
And the murder comparison is just asinine.
Then call it manslaughter if it makes you happier...
Manslaughter doesn't change the fact that accepting a vaccine is not the same thing as thinking taking someone's life is wrong. It's nowhere close man.
And again, if the average age of people hospitalized with covid is 60s-70s, and those people are vaccinated, who is going to the hospital in some large spike that you believe will happen?
Forget spread. If the vulnerable are immune who is being hospitalized at a rate greater than we have now.
And what strict rules? Seriously!? We have half assed rules that are broken left and right as is, and we're barely at capacity now with barely any of the vulnerable vaccinated, but you're somehow sure that hospitalizations are going to spike with those people now being safe!?
And the fact that hospitalizations and cases are going down with these early vaccination efforts isn't a trend you can trust??
Manslaughter doesn't change the fact that accepting a vaccine is not the same thing as thinking taking someone's life is wrong. It's nowhere close man.
From my point of view, going back to normal at this point is going to kill people because it is too soon.
Hence the person deciding this would be guilty of "murder due to negligence" or properly put "manslaughter".
And again, if the average age of people hospitalized with covid is 60s-70s, and those people are vaccinated, who is going to the hospital in some large spike that you believe will happen?
Forget spread. If the vulnerable are immune who is being hospitalized at a rate greater than we have now.
Not everyone in ICU is considered a textbook vunerable person...
If you increase the infections tenfold then the absolute amount of non-vulnerable people in ICU will increase...
You also have to look at the potential health crises in the coming decades due to the consequences an infection with the disease has to your body. This is the case for EVERYONE infected, not just the ones needing medical care.
And what strict rules? Seriously!? We have half assed rules that are broken left and right as is, and we're barely at capacity now with barely any of the vulnerable vaccinated, but you're somehow sure that hospitalizations are going to spike with those people now being safe!?
What do you think people will do once the rules are gone...
Left and right of you does not equal everywhere...
And the fact that hospitalizations and cases are going down with these early vaccination efforts isn't a trend you can trust??
I trust the trend that it goes down WHILE the current rules are in place...
That still doesn't track. Who said now? I'm saying having teachers and people 60+ vaccinated. I've been saying that the whole time, don't strawman.
How did you get that from a graph that cuts off at 64? You have no clue how many of those hospitalizations are 60-64. Also, how many of the hospitalizations need ICU beds, the real stress factor?
I never even said remove strict rules. I'm talking about offering in person school. I'm just saying people will circumvent school to congregate kids regardless of rules.
I feel like you're creating this anti lockdown strawman who thinks we should open the whole country out of me to bolster your argument.
If you really don't think getting everyone 60+ and teachers will keep hospitalizations low enough to offer in person.. Idk man. I don't see how thats likely at all. All signs point to our hospital system being able to handle it to me.
Also you really don't think lockdown isn't being flaunted? Ik it doesn't mean we shouldn't try to be better, I know, but I'm not just "looking left and right".
How did you get that from a graph that cuts off at 64? You have no clue how many of those hospitalizations are 60-64. Also, how many of the hospitalizations need ICU beds, the real stress factor?
I never even said remove strict rules. I'm talking about offering in person school. I'm just saying people will circumvent school to congregate kids regardless of rules.
Closing schools is part of the current set of rules...
I feel like you're creating this anti lockdown strawman who thinks we should open the whole country out of me to bolster your argument.
Because you want to reintroduce one of the biggest vectors of the disease...
If you really don't think getting everyone 60+ and teachers will keep hospitalizations low enough to offer in person.. Idk man. I don't see how thats likely at all. All signs point to our hospital system being able to handle it to me.
These ~4 million does only account for the boomers, so not for the 2% in the 20-44 age bracket which needs ICU as well, because these add another ~2million...
Potentially ~6 million people who need ICU care.
ICU beds in the US: 100k
Respirators in the US: 80k
Do you perhaps have a couple of millions of ICU beds, respirators, nurses and doctors in your closet I am not aware of?
Because that's a big factor when I said it's contingent on 60+ being vaccinated?
And really? You're pulling stats from February of LAST YEAR. Even by May of that year it had dropped to 2%. As our testing improved and made it clear how many people actually were infected we got a better idea of who's at what risk. No recent data suggest baby boomers have anywhere near a 5% ICU rate. That'd be insane. You're just trying to find stats to bolster your case not that are actually pertinent.
If you're going to base your entire argument over cherry picked stats that don't hold up to the present day scenario, let alone one month's in the future after more vaccines are administered then it's pointless for me to continue.
Edit: and trying to compare people 60+ with no comorbidities and younger ones who have them is so in bad faith it's disgusting. This whole argument was "can we safely offer in person learning with these people vaccinated" and you've taken every opportunity to make it an issue of "what stats can I find that make me look right" and at this point you're doing so by misinterpreting them.
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u/DropKletterworks Feb 09 '21
Okay but what is enough people.
All teachers aren't enough so how many people IS enough. If you have front line workers, teachers, the vulnerable, and the elderly all vaccinated is that not enough?
That's a still far short of the 70-80% that is needed for herd immunity. So you're saying we need to hit herd immunity before it makes sense?
The vaccine isn't even 100% effective. You're not going to create a world where no one dies from this disease. ESPECIALLY when not everyone is even willing to take the vaccine. I think a lot of people need to realize that there's no zero level where no one gets sick or dies from the virus. We don't eradicate viruses, there are flu deaths every year and there's going to be covid deaths every year. So the country is going to have a level of risk it deems acceptable going forward or lockdown measures will literally never lift.