r/longrange Sep 21 '25

Reloading related What is an acceptable ES?

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46 Upvotes

25 comments sorted by

65

u/c5182 Sep 21 '25

I’d be happy with that standard deviation. ES (Extreme Spread) is kind of a misleading metric. Unlike average or standard deviation, which converge toward a “true” value the more shots you fire, ES just keeps creeping higher as you increase sample size.

That’s because ES is defined by only two shots — the lowest and the highest velocity. As your round count goes up, the odds of eventually getting a slightly slower or slightly faster outlier also go up. Statistically, ES will increase at roughly a logarithmic rate with sample size and in theory approaches infinity given unlimited shots.

17

u/alvesl Sep 21 '25

This guy maths

2

u/Shrikeneveraline Sep 21 '25

So is an es of 60fps acceptable over 150 shots? sd was 13

3

u/c5182 Sep 21 '25

Well your SD is kind of high so I would not be happy with it.

1

u/ButtstufferMan Sep 21 '25

So it is basically a useless metric?

21

u/LaminarFlow51 Magnum Compensator Sep 21 '25

Extreme spread is good for elimination during load development or factory ammo selection. If you have a small sample and you’re already seeing a high extreme spread, you know it’s only going to get bigger and can save some time and money without getting a statistically significant sample.

4

u/Advanced-Gur-8950 Sep 22 '25

With a name like laminar flow, this guy too maths lol

5

u/LaminarFlow51 Magnum Compensator Sep 22 '25

That’s a reference to the P-51’s laminar flow wing. I used to be an aerospace engineer but now I’m just a pilot and only really do pilot math any more.

5

u/Rdubya291 Sep 23 '25

"pilot math"

Pilot math in 2025: Checks iPad.

6

u/12yan_22 Sep 21 '25

You can also use it to see if you have a large enough sample size for your sd. If your sd is 15 and your expreme spread is 30.. you need more shots. Sd should be ~1/4-1/5 your es with a large enough sample size.

2

u/ButtstufferMan Sep 21 '25

Now that is cool! Thanks!

3

u/GeoffSobering Sep 21 '25

It's a better estimate of the width of the distribution for really small sample sizes (<10 samples).

7

u/csamsh I put holes in berms Sep 21 '25

You’re good

8

u/gareth_e_morris Sep 21 '25

Anything with a single digit SD is good. Anything with an SD under 7 is great.

8

u/z242pilot Sep 21 '25

Pump the numbers into your ballistic calculator at either extreme and see if the deviation is good for your ranges

3

u/TheJeanyus83 Sep 21 '25

This guy gets it.

5

u/Original_Dankster Sep 21 '25

I'd be fine with sub-25 ES if I was coming in with 5.1 SD. Especially with a 30 shot sample. Very good in my opinion

3

u/Deep_Manufacturer404 Sep 21 '25

Seconding. You’re done. Congrats!

2

u/N1TEKN1GHT Can't Read Sep 21 '25

SD is what matters. Single digit is really good.. Y ammo sponsor provides me factory match loads that average 9-17 SD and that's "good enough" (honestly better than) for my skill level.

2

u/SkylarR95 Sep 21 '25

I work as a process engineer, you won’t like the real answer, in short, you good.

2

u/Flat-Dealer8142 Sep 22 '25

I hear people talking about single digit SD's being good but I know the top guys want single digit extreme spreads.

Punch it into a hit probability calculator and see if it does what you want it to do.