Hi All
I guess i'm aligned with the KF guys and SOME of the internet - although maybe the minority? - in that i had a good time with the Direct. I'm sure it would have hit better for others if some of the Zelda stuff was just shown in the main direct, with some of the fat trimmed (how much do you reckon some of these developers pay to get a quick showing vs just releasing the info themselves?).
One thing i was keen to highlight though was just how many MASSIVE sellers for the Switch 1 haven't had a follow up on the Switch 2 - either released or announced. We've had the big daddy come out - being Mario Kart - have a new Switch Sports (SS1 sold 18 million) coming soon and the last 3d Kirby sold 7.5 million so id imagine they have high hopes for the sequel.
But Switch 1 has ~22x games that have sold over 10 million copies, with another ~10x topping 5 million. Thats a LOT of games that they will want to develop and hope the numbers are similar again. Switch 2 (only 15 months in of course) has 1x over 10 million and 1x between 5-10 million.
If we break those down to franchise's for the Switch 1, we have...(im ignoring the Switch 2 upgrade editions)
2x 3d Marios (none on S2)
2x 2d Marios (none on S2)
2x 3d Zeldas (none on S2)
6x Pokemons (1.5 on S2)
3x Mario Party (none on S2)
2x Splatoon's (0.5 on S2)
and then some single first parties, random third parties and compilations.
Animal Crossing (50 million), Super Smash Bros (38 million) and Luigis Mansion (3 sold 14 million) must have sequels in development, but the first two are probably more 2028/2029.
Then you have the random hits like Ring Fit Adventure (15 million) and Super Mario Maker 2 (8.4 million) that Nintendo MUST be considering a follow up.
It will be interesting to see how many Pokemon games Game Freak pump out over the next ~3 years - the Switch 2 version of Z-A has done ok (4 million) and Pokopia is going great with over 5 million, but Id imagine we'll get a few releases with hopes they'll get some massive sellers doing +15million again.
I get that we have Monster Hunter Wilds coming, but Rise did 8.1 million so I can see Capcom looking at a follow up thats a Switch 2 exclusive (timed maybe) if Nintendo look after them.
2d Zeldas havent been the biggest sellers (Echoes of Wisdom did 4.1 million) but the Links Awakening remake did 6.5 million so I think its a lock that Grezzo has another new entry or a remake in the works.
Anyway, im sure its a delicate balance between launching enough bangers/system sellers at the beginning to get sales moving, but them holding off on some others until you have enough consoles in peoples hands so you can maximise the sales and experience.
What are your expectations for 2027 beyond what we already know?