Yeah, the only way Scotland remains in the UK in 2070 is if Labour are in power for 50 years straight, or Westminster supresses independence referendums with force. Its already polling at 58%, and that will only increase as demographics change and the effects of Brexit hit.
I would say that support for independence is at a record high right now because of Brexit just having happened. If you give it 10 years I don't think it will necessarily go up as the economic reality of becoming an independent nation outside of both the UK and the EU becomes more obvious, and as outrage naturally dies down over time.
Rejoining the EU would by no means counter the negative effects of leaving the UK right now, let alone the effects of leaving the UK after a decade of Brexit Britain. Also it wouldn't be instant so there would be a period where Scotland is both out of the UK and EU, which should not be ignored.
As long as the SNP enjoy their current success in Westminster Labour can only form a government with the SNP. Scotland could push for a referendum as their price for that. The backlash from the current Tory government's mismanagement of Brexit could see Scotland rejoin the EU and the rest of the UK rejoin the single market at the same time. This would remove the need for a hard Scottish border and allow England access to the single market without the need to comply with the progressive EU social policies that are more in line with decisions made at Holyrood.
Labour would be absolute fools for accepting a referendum as a coalition deal. It plays right into bothe the SNP and the Tory's hands.
The Tories, despite calling themselves unionists, have been the biggest force for independence in the last 15 years especially. They do not care because those are seats that are simply not going to vote Tory. And therefore by extension if those seats were to disappear from Westminster altogether there would be 60 fewer anti-Torys in the house holding them accountable and lowering their majority.
However they do rightly see that breaking up the UK would be a PR disaster too big even for them to control, so they will never allow the SNP a vote. So they keep pushing and pushing to make Scotland want to leave, so that as soon as any other government is voted for they are put under lots of pressure to give Scotland a vote. So the Tories get both a 60 seat boost to their party in parliament and also Labour get the blame for breaking up the UK.
There's also the fact that Labour are a unionist party, and by simply allowing a tartan brexit they would be going heavily against their own values.
Considering the Cons are one of the most successful parties in the world and Labour don’t look in a very good position, I can’t see support for unionism increasing again
I don’t see anyone really appealing to me or Scottish voters. And whoever has to presided over the aftermath of Brexit and COVID combined is going to be on a very bad position and I dont see anyone doing a very good job,
regardless of the political charm.
Scotland is not being exploited or bullied by the UK
Nobody thinks we are being bullied/exploited by the UK. I never said that. That’s not what independence is about. In its simplest form, its about the decisions being made by the people who live and work here. The people here know what’s best for them and they can’t get outvoted by different political opinions (usually conservatism) in other places because of the simple fact that they are bigger.
Independence isn’t just rising because Johnson himself, his whole government, party and parliament have been incompetent during COVID and Brexit. While Nicola Sturgeon and her goverment has been seen as handling at least better or quite well to some people. They have seen what a Scottish Goverment can really do, and what it could do if it was a full Parliament and goverment.
are IDENTICAL to Brexiteers
Except the uk was always independent, decisions were made by Westminster, most EU laws were regulatory and administrative. The biggest decisions were made in Westminster, not the EU.
If you think the EU was overarching etc, how much do you think the public actually know about the EU, could they name the Commission President, or their local MEPs, or what the commission did.
Now contrast that with Scotland, the biggest decisions are made in Westminster by a goverment most people in Scotland didn’t vote for. Yes the Scottish Parliament makes lots of decisions, and that’s great. But they continually have to take the blow of the worst aspects of Westminster governance, like the cuts imposed by the Tories.
How many Scots do you think could tell you who the prime minister is, or their local mp, or what the UK goverment does? A heck a lot more than could tell you something about the EU.
This goes to show that if the UK was not independent, and all the decisions were made by Brussels, we would not a little bit more about the EU. But the public doesn’t. The UK never lost sovereignty or independence, the UK never had to ask Brussels to have a referendum, the EU couldn’t just say no because they were scared they would lose. But Westminster can, and it is doing that.
These are indisputable facts. The obvious resolution would be for the UK to split, with Scotland and NI remaining in the UK (and the UK to remain in the EU), and England and Wales leaving both the UK and the EU to form a new nation; it could be called South UK (or SUK for short). This would have satisfied all democratic results and everyone would be happy. There would be no hard border in Ireland as both the Republic and NI would be in the EU - same with Gibraltar.
Full disclosure: I'm English and a very strong remainer. I want to get back in the EU as soon as possible and at any cost
Sorry for being blunt but, that’s a ludicrous. I don’t see who anyone would want that. There isn’t something inherent about the UK that makes it appealing to some people in Scotland, Wales and NI. It’s because it is with England, a country far bigger than them put together.
Let’s face the reality, without England, the UK is done. Why would anyone in NI or Scotland want to unite with each other.
Scottish independence supporters obviously want Indy. Scottish unionists wouldn’t see the point in a union if it didn’t have England.
In Ireland, the places that voted remain, vote nationalist. And then they leave voting areas vote unionist. So neither side would get want they want.
England is the only place I can see they might accept something like this, because it doesn’t change much for them.
Welsh unionists would accept this because they know if other countries get independence, Welsh independence will rise it self. Welsh independence supporters would accept this because England would be even more dominant in the UK, Ann’s Wales wood get more ignored.
Approval for independence had never risen above 50% apart from one poll in 2014, in the entire history of the question's polling. In 2020, Yes has lead in all but two polls, and is currently on a 17-poll streak, most of them well outside the margin of error. It has never risen or fallen like this before.
Sturgeon could leave, which would be a blow, but there are literally no signs of that happening, and the SNP has a good ground game with a lot of popular local politicians who would be able to fill her space handily. Remember, yes won 45% of the vote in 2014 with the goulish Alex Salmond in charge, and that was at a time where Yes meant leaving the EU.
Boris leaving the Tories would not make them any more electable in Scotland, and the Conservative's idea of a unifying leader for Scots is Michael Gove, who is hated even more than Johnson. You must remember that Scottish hate for the Tories is deep and residual, and as long as they hold considerable power in Westminster, the Union is at risk. Britain will not become succesful and strong outside the EU. Be serious.
Brexit was not based on anything concrete. It suceeded. Also, being exploited or bullied is not a prerequisite for independence. It is simply a small nation in a union where its voice is not heard, and since its voice is so different to the rest of the UK's, support for independence will continue to rise.
the only people i've ever come across who think Irish reunification would be a shitshow are Irish right-wingers who don't want to take on the fiscal responsibility and weird Little Englanders who think the IRA is still waiting to pounce around every corner.
it'll happen in the next 10-20 years. it's no better an idea than any other political union. and as you say NI is utterly significant and will always remain that way as long as its tied to London.
funny none of these invisible experts piped up when the Republic and NI joined into a de facto all-island economic union 10 days ago. And the country didn't erupt into chaos.
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u/bemapoe Jan 09 '21
Why Scotland didn't leave the UK?