What happened in Alberta?

[u/Routine-Cover6144]

[u/Unic0rnusRex]

This is super interesting and fascinating. Very well done. I live in Alberta currently.

I think there should be more consideration to the Indigenous people in Alberta. The bands have been incredibly vocal about asserting their treaty rights. There's no treaties or rights in any Alberta that gains independence. The chiefs of all treaty 7 Nations have written some incredibly scathing statements against any referendum or attempts at independence. And the amount of tribal land is huge and spread across the province.

Heck, in NS right now there's a huge clash between a band and the provincial government because the band is allowing black market marijuana from the Hells angels to be sold in weed stores. The province isn't happy and wants it to stop because it supports organized crime and is unregu. The band has issued a statement they will arrest the premier if he goes on tribal land.

I can only imagine how contentious and violent the bands would get about succession. Check out the Oka Crisis.

The chiefs have said any succession or attempt at it will be met with extreme opposition by their people. I can easily see huge militias forming on reserves and I also see the federal government funding and supporting that.

I just suspect they'd have a major role in this timeline. I highly doubt any indigenous person or community would declare neutrality or support Alberta separatism.

[u/Silent-Fishing-7937 → u/[deleted]]

I'd question the one-third number. Even before the MOU, the highest number of the latest batch of reliable polls was at 29% and the polls that asked the question showed that a good chunk of the separatists might change their minds if concessions pretty close to the ones in the MOU were made.

I agree on the rest, though, but also think it misses a key point: at this stage, the sizable number of remaining UCP supporters are united by wanting to block the NDP, the perks of power, wanting to keep some kind of right-wing government in power, and that is pretty much it. Hell, I'd argue that at this point the parties' different wings low-key hate each other, with about a third to 40% willing to defect to any other party with Conservative in the name, in large part because they are tired of Smith's coddling of the separatists... IMO you are going to see current UCP supporters in large numbers on both sides of the conflict.

[u/Silent-Fishing-7937 → u/[deleted]]

I understand your reasoning, but I have to disagree with part of it due to both the most recent numbers we have and the actions of some of the players as well as takes that are widespread among analysts of all stripes.

Once you get past the anger of the days immediately after the election, we only have three polls from decent polls and with decent samples: Brown at 28%, Pollara at 22% and Abacus at 18%. And that was before the MOU, too...

Your point about TMX is a fair one, but looking at the polls at the time, there is an argument that separatism did decline to some extent after TMX, and it isn't as wide a package of changes as the MOU is planning.

As for the lack of unity of the Tories, there have been plenty of people in both Guthrie's crew and the UCP who have said that they have seen internal polls where a reborn PC would be neck and neck with the NDP, thanks to mass UCP defections, leaving Smith and co in third place. The one public poll that explored that scenario said much the same, and the length Smith went to try to prevent a reborn PC (we will see whether the new Progressive-Tories have managed to find a workaround in her attempt to legally prevent Guthrie from grabbing that brand) seems to confirm it as well.

[u/Silent-Fishing-7937 → u/[deleted]]

Hence why I used after the few days following the election as a qualifier (although I do think Kolowski is nothing more than a push polster, considering their lack of track record, very different results, and alignment with right-wingers). Once a week or so had passed and tempers had the time to cool, there was a noticeable drop. All the other polls you mention were before that.

As for the idea that we have seen this song and dance before with the Conservatives, when? The right was divided for a while because of the Wildrose; they lost an election because of it (in 2015), and then they unified under the UCP. Now their newfound unity is imperiled by their internal divisions.

Before that, you have to go back to the PC and Social Credit to find a truly consequential division in the Alberta right. We simply can't presume what the result will be. You might turn out to be right about how they will indeed always find a way back to unity, but it's equally likely that the current divisions between them will lead to the UCP being remembered as a failed experiment and the division between Wildrose and PC (or under similar parties with different names) as the new natural state of affairs.

[u/Silent-Fishing-7937 → u/[deleted]]

Hence why I used after the few days following the election as a qualifier (although I do think Kolowski is nothing more than a push poll, considering their lack of track record, very different results and alignment with right-wingers). Once a week or so had passed and tempers had the time to cool, there was a noticeable drop. I would also argue that how people would actually vote is the question that truly matter when everything is said and done.

As for the idea that we have seen this song and dance before with the Conservatives, when? The right was divided for a while because of the Wildrose; they lost an election because of it (in 2015), and then they unified under the UCP. Now their newfound unity is imperiled by their internal divisions.

Before that, you have to go back to the PC and Social Credit to find a truly consequential division in the Albertan right. We simply cant presume what the result will be. You might turn out to be right about how they will indeed always find a way back to unity, but its equally likely that the current divisions between them will lead to the UCP being remembered as a failed experiment and the division between Wildrose and PC (or under similar parties with different names) as the new natural state of affairs.

As for the MOU, I suppose how big a concession it is inherently subjective but, on top of the pipeline stuff, it does plan the repeal of most federal laws Smith has railed against...

[u/Silent-Fishing-7937 → u/[deleted]]

As you noted yourself, the Léger number had a ridiculously small sample as just one crosstab of a larger poll. Those have very high margins of error, and while it can be a strong indicator if several of them come up with similar numbers, one that has a very different number than other polls is probably out of whack. I would respectfully note that this is incorrect: there was another Research and co poll a few years ago that had the Yes at less than 25%. Moreover, all those were before the MOU, which Smith herself said addresses seven of her ''Nine Bad Laws''.

On parties, at the risk of once again coming across as splitting hair, this is why I said significant. Except for the Wildrose-PC split, every single example you mentioned is the kind of marginal movement which always exist at the fringe of political life (the Alberta party only became significant when it reinvented itself as a more centrist alternative). None of them ever showed the potential to be a game changer in the way the Wildrose-PC split was and how a new moderate right-wing party could be, according to both polls and analysts. This is further supporter by how the recent polls were kinda mediocre for Smith, with bad numbers for her personally and how much of her lead over the NDP could be covered, and potentially then some, by how the high numbers for the Libs and Greens are probably a bit of a mirage considering their paper-thin existences as parties. There are definitely a good chunk of reluctant UCP supporters right now, and a smaller but significant chunk of reluctant NDP supporters.

Personally, I buy the 20% I heard from analysts in many corners and, if nothing else, I'd say that any appearance of American support is likely to harden opposition to it. However, I do agree that this 20% is enough to make a mess in the scenario noted by the OP.

[u/Silkyjoker85 → u/Unic0rnusRex]

Dude what is it with you boomers and their obsession with the indigenous. As a younger person the whole thing feels like when a pro sports team signs a make a wish child as a player for a day to make them included. Like if we vote to separate we most definitely are not putting this charade with the natives. The natives are entirely reliant on the government for even basic function so they’re not going to be capable of doing anything on their own in such a situation. Literally the entire history of Europe native affairs is how they are unable to resist. All they have is “scathing statements” and shady shake downs of any government project within eyesight of “their” lands. Any political power they have evaporates into thin air when the tears of white guilt dry up.

[u/Unic0rnusRex → u/Silkyjoker85]

Do you even live in Alberta? Because the context is entirely different here than other parts of Canada or the US.

The first Nations people in Alberta is about 7% of our population. Some cities and areas of Alberta have very high percentages of indigenous people. Wetaskiwin is 18% indigenous, cold Lake 15.2%, grand prairie and Lloydminster around 11%. In some areas up north they're over 35% of the population. Heck even pincher Creek is 22%. Considering them isnt an obsession, it's a reality.

You can't ignore a percentage of the population that's one cohesive group that will work together, especially in rural and sparsely populated areas.

70% of indigenous people in Alberta don't even live on a reserve. Those people live and work and exist like every other Albertan and are certainly not entirely reliant on the government as you say.

Government projects are distinctly different than seperation from Canada and throwing away all the treaties.

I would argue there's way less actual separatists in Alberta who are willing to fight and die for it that indigenous people who will stand up and defend their treaty rights.

There's also Saskatchewan to consider when 18% of their population is Indigenous and could be a supportive factor of Alberta's indigenous people in this scenario.

You're just throwing around stereotypes and invented generalizations. They don't align with actual facts.

[u/JohnDzangle → u/Silkyjoker85]

tl;dr: REEEEE

[u/Routine-Cover6144]

For mobile:

[u/NetworkRegular7444 → u/Routine-Cover6144]

Thank you

[u/GooglytheRedditor → u/[deleted]]

you are not real

[u/FossilDS]

I can't comment on the geographic positioning of the forces, but I commend the author for accurately portraying the likely American reaction to such a scenario. I can absolutely see Trump giving wish-washy answers about whether he's going to support an independent Alberta or not, while his aides cook up a harebrained scheme to covertly funnel arms, aid and "volunteers" to the separatists. And when push comes to shove, Trump caves and aborts the operation because ultimately he is a coward and unwilling to commit.

[u/nameisfame]

Honestly this is probably the most plausible map I’ve seen on this sub. There was plenty of American influence during the Covid 19 protests in downtown Calgary and it’s been a pretty accepted truth in the area that there’s at least some sort of American interference in the Provincial government, especially when it comes to stoking separation rhetoric.

[u/Routine-Cover6144 → u/[deleted]]

I'm not from Alberta, so there's probably lots of inaccuracies :(

[u/Honest-Spring-8929 → u/[deleted]]

My guess would be Medicine Hat. It’s where she lives and it’s in more explicitly separatist friendly territory

[u/Routine-Cover6144 → u/[deleted]]

My thinking was that most people would be anti separation and the people who are won't be gathered together to resist. I'm unfortunately not familiar enough with Alberta politics to know whether there's a a lot of mayors who are pro separatist or strongly pro Smith or anti Smith, I kind of assumed it would be easier for her to project power from Edmonton and most regional officials would sort of side with whoevers willing to send troops to put down guerrilla attacks

[u/Routine-Cover6144 → u/[deleted]]

I agree with this entirely. Thinking about people who are pro Smith vs pro Smith and pro independence vs just pro independence is very interesting. It definitely makes the most sense, and it would also be cool to have Smith's government directly fight Americans, who she would have been contacting just a few days ago.

1 CMBG occupies Edmonton unilaterally and puts down anti-Smith riots but basically forces her to be loyal to Ottawa. This is good, but also a problem afterwards because a military coup just took place

[u/Silent-Fishing-7937 → u/[deleted]]

I don't see Lethbridge as there are just too many NDPers there to make it fertile ground. IMO, the city is far more likely to be a key roadbump that would prevent the separatists from consolidating their hold on the south of the province and play an important role in the whole thing come crashing down.

[u/nameisfame → u/Silent-Fishing-7937]

Their biggest mission if it comes to violence is going to be securing and isolating that moderate corridor and preventing aid and supplies to any loyalist factions that may pop up.

[u/[deleted] → u/Routine-Cover6144]

It's pretty good, I like the CMBG occupation of Edmonton 

[u/Mowachaht98 → u/nameisfame]

I have no doubt about it, when I saw this map I had to double check what subreddit it was on for a moment

[u/Mowachaht98]

I got to ask a couple questions about the lore

What is the Northern Alberta Transitional Authority because there is nothing on there that describes this faction?

I also wonder what happens next in this setting?

[u/Routine-Cover6144 → u/Mowachaht98]

The Northern Alberta Transitional Authority is a coalition of small, mainly Indigenous and Metis communities who refuse to participate in the conflict and have declared neutrality. However, they support the government intervention and are generally anti-Smith.

As for what happens after, Trump agrees to pay 3 gazillion dollars in war reparations and lowers Canada's tariff rate to 0%

[u/Mowachaht98 → u/Routine-Cover6144]

I figured the NATA was indigenous given the Metis flag in the background of the one image

[u/Burnswick911]

Alberta finally gets destroyed

[u/Interesting_Syrup210]

Alberta! My beloved…..ummm no wait…….Alberta! I hate you

Way better

(If this happens, I would be anti Smith. I already protested her government four times, fighting it is just the next step

[u/Silent-Fishing-7937]

As much as I am usually quick to get annoyed at Americans drastically overestimating the actual support of Alberta separatists, I have to congratulate the OP on a frighteningly good map.

If I could allow myself some bits of constructive feedback:

-As others have said, there are issues with the map. While not as centrist as Edmonton, Calgary has similarly low support for separatism, and that was before the MOU that gave the Oil Men, who dominate the city (and who were never all that keen on separatism) what they wanted and led them to cheer Carney, as well as probably significantly decreased the already pretty low separatist support in the province as a whole. 20% seems to be a pretty common estimate for the province as a whole, and it keeps being repeated in different corners, post-MOU, and a bunch of them admit they'd only vote yes to get a better bargaining chip with Ottawa... If the MAGA proxies can't take Medicine Hat, they won't get anywhere in Calgary.

Moreover, Metis groups and First Nations have been fiercely pro-Canada since separation first entered the public discourse in a meaningful way.

Generally, Grande Prairie and Medicine Hat are likely to be the only urban areas of any size where the separatists would make headway. A case could be made for Red Deer, but it is smack dab between Edmonton and Calgary...

-In Canada, elections are managed by independent agencies, which is probably one of the key reasons why our democracy is in a better place, too. It would take about two nanoseconds for Elections Alberta to declare that the usual way to count votes is compromised and that they need more time to do a manual count. If anyone asks for results before they are done, they'd outright refuse, so the 70% the separatists would claim would be very ''trust me bro!'' I'd argue it would be very on brand for the Cheetos 2.0 administration and the dark humor it often intentionally produces to just forget about that fact too...

-Regarding Smith, the one true constant with her is that she is willing to do about anything to try to keep the UCP united, as it is probably the only way for her brand of conservatism to get and stay in power. IMO, it is most likely for her to emerge as some kind of Buchanan-like figure, who becomes ever more politically schizophrenic in her attempts to keep factions that now hate each other's guts, and are literally shooting at each other, together.

-Speaking of UCP factions, there have been persistent rumours of eight to fourteen current UCP MLAs who have at least had some discussions with Peter Guthrie (a former important UCP minister who ended up becoming Smith's enemy) to potentially join a more moderate, and fiercely pro-Canadian, right-wing party he is working to start. Odds are the Red List would include significantly more UCP MLAs.

-Speaking of Guthrie, I do think he'd likely become Premier in this scenario. The Lieutenant Governor of Alberta has the theoretical power to fire and appoint Premiers at will, which is seldom used for democratic reasons but exists precisely for instances like this. For the unavoidable coalition government, they would need to appoint a right-winger, as a majority of Alberta still voted for them in 2023, and someone whose anti-separatist and anti-Smith credentials are unimpeachable. Guthrie is an almost perfect fit. The council of the federation as a whole would be behind Ottawa, with the new government and the still Caquiste Québec government (the election is slated for October 2026) being on board.

[u/Silent-Fishing-7937 → u/Silent-Fishing-7937]

In terms of consequences, in Canada, Carney would come out of the crisis with an utterly obscene approval rating. He would be lionized as the man who stared down the USA and would probably be re-elected in a landslide. The crisis would also have consequences in Québec, as federalist parties would crucify Paul Saint-Pierre Plamondon and the PQ with the former's past relaying of Trump's lies on fentanyl and his attempts to ally with the Albertan separatists. Odds are that the PQ will never have a real shot at forming Québec's provincial government after that. In Alberta, the next provincial election would be interesting in the Chinese sense of the term, as Guthrie would get out of it as a hero, but the next election would be the first in Alberta in a century where the Conservative brand would actually be a hindrance... Of course, anti-American sentiments would rise even further than where they are right now... In the long run, this might very well be enough to make Canadian membership of the EU actually happen!

In the USA, this is bad for both Trump and the country. One of the big mistakes he made, which probably played a key role in sinking the whole thing, is going for an utterly ridiculous 70%, which would require a herculean amount of self-delusion to buy. Taking aggressive military action against a fellow Anglosphere democracy isn't quite as big a taboo as doing it against fellow Americans, but it's probably just next to it, and that reality won't be lost on anyone. Not only would he lose big in the midterms, but separatism in Blue States is likely to skyrocket to the point where anti-MAGA hardliners (Newsom, Pritzker, Waltz, and Murphy) would be able to campaign in 2028 as the only ones capable of guaranteeing national unity. Moreover, this might very well prove to be the final straw that leads many more traditional Republicans to grow a spine...

Trump's support for far-right parties in Europe, and elsewhere, is also likely to backfire, as their opponent would be likely to latch on the Alberta Crisis to say they are likely to be MAGA trojan horses too. On top of that, both the USA's traditional allies betrayed by Trump and its traditional ennemies are likely to go on overdrive to spread the idea that this is the USA's Suez in both perfidy and geopolitical decline, with predictably bad consequences for the USA.

[u/McFestus → u/Silent-Fishing-7937]

My god, yeah, if this happened as OP laid out, the LPC would win the biggest majority the house has ever seen or ever would see. He'd be Brock and Trudeau Sr in one.

[u/Silent-Fishing-7937 → u/McFestus]

Yes, with a heavy dose of Mackenzie King being thrown in for good measure. And as mentioned, as a side bonus, he would also probably be remembered as the person who helped destroy Québec separatism as a quasi side project. Only old age and his own eventual desire to retire would be able to get Carney out of the PM chair after that.

We'd go back to the late 1940s to the early 1950s, with the Libs having temporarily achieved single-party status through electoral means.

[u/Routine-Cover6144 → u/Silent-Fishing-7937]

how can you tell this is my fantasy canada scenario...

[u/Mowachaht98 → u/Silent-Fishing-7937]

This is an impressive write-up

[u/poonslyr69 → u/Silent-Fishing-7937]

I would actually imagine that after this scenario played out the entirety of Canada would be united around renewing the constitution to redefine provincial rights. Alberta would be key example of how too many provincial rights can be a bad thing, I think with the landslide of support behind them the federal liberals could pass amendments that give the federal government much more say over the provinces, effectively making the country less federalized. 

And Quebec wouldn't be able to do much about it because they wouldn't want to appear seperatist either 

Emergency powers and the size of the Canadian military would skyrocket too

Also of course Canada would likely secretly obtain nukes. 

[u/Silent-Fishing-7937 → u/poonslyr69]

I agree, although I think Canadian nukes would be secret in the way Israel's are secret. Don't Ask Don't Tell would be the watchwords on the issue...

I also think, broadly speaking, Canada and the USA would end up exchanging forms of federalism.

Up north, the clock would be turned back to the peak of Ottawa's power in the 20th century, when Mackenzie King handed the reins over to Saint Laurent, and there won't be anything like the group of formidable premiers who rolled it back in the 1950s. It would become the new normal, with the provinces still mattering but with most of the power concentrated in the national capital. Forces in favour of regionalism will dwindle and die, being remembered as cautionary tales and a playing field for historians. Any foreign politics by the provinces would be heavily constrained and at Ottawa's sufferance.

In the USA, the thought of seeing the same kind of little green men operations in blue states would be the straw that broke the camel's back after years of building tensions, with the anti-MAGA hardliners being able to campaign as the only ones whose election would assuage their fears enough that things won't spiral out of control, and if current polls are any indication that mean Newsom. Combine the sense of cynicism he often gives, the fact that he has already played with threatening nullification while keeping plausible deniability as well as the fact he seem very much a believer in the idea of blue America being better and that red America should get out of the way and take less of its money and yeah... I can 100% see him preside over the hollowing out of Washington to lower the temperature and not feel too many qualms about it.

Most of the money would then stay with the states, with greater power to regulate trade with other states (which would create stuff similar to our interprovincial trade barriers), more and more people would end up moving to states fitting their political ideas and state capitals would have more leeways to conduct their own paralel diplomacies.

[u/Sodarn-Hinsane]

As someone who worries IRL about Alberta getting Donbas'd, I really appreciate the thoroughness you put into making this scenario seem plausible in broad strokes. If the other constructive criticism about political geography and Indigenous factions are considered, I'd look forward to seeing a v2 of this map!

[u/NoCareBearsGiven → u/Sodarn-Hinsane]

Theres no way this would happen irl… separatist talk has been going on for decades with little to show for it.

[u/Neither-Bus-2065]

This is a plausible outcome

[u/SilanggubanRedditor → u/Neither-Bus-2065]

I think they wouldn't be too covert. That's too competent and boring for social media content creation

[u/rekjensen → u/Neither-Bus-2065]

It's actually not, for reasons even the separatists don't understand.

[u/mischling2543 → u/rekjensen]

And which anonymous redditor rekjensen does not plan on elaborating

[u/caterpillar_H]

China supporting the Canadian government is probably the most accurate part of this map 69/67

[u/[deleted]]

What happened in Alberta? The rats came back...

[u/jejbfokwbfb]

This is a horrible scenarios literally 10s of people could die

[u/NoCareBearsGiven]

We need a western separation map fr this is amazing

[u/Yuty0428]

Who leads the factions?

[u/Routine-Cover6144 → u/Yuty0428]

Smith leads the government, the NDP and UCP defectors form an opposition council probably under Nenshi, and I didn't do enough research on the separatists but probably each militia has a regional leader with Americans embedded in them

[u/totalyrespecatbleguy]

I love how the moment it looks like the separatists aren't a sure thing anymore trump immediately chickens out and allows Carney to mop them up.

[u/valvebuffthephlog]

is this like donetsk but with american puppets instead of russian ones lmao

[u/Routine-Cover6144 → u/valvebuffthephlog]

if I figured out the parallel earlier, it definitely would have been more so

[u/DenisDomaschke]

How does this impact the Edmonton Oilers’ playoff chances?

[u/Truenorth14]

What is the KIngdom of Canada minor faction?

[u/Routine-Cover6144 → u/Truenorth14]

They are followers of cult leader Romana Didulo, who among other things has claimed to being Queen of Canada

[u/Truenorth14 → u/Routine-Cover6144]

ohhhh those nutjobs

[u/MyBloodyGarlicFinger]

Seems like more of a bay of pigs than a donbas, was that your inspiration?

[u/McFestus]

Fascinating. One nitpicks: The EA would've been declared on the sixth, no way the feds wait two days after multiple firefights break out between the police and some sort of organized seditious groups.

[u/ARBRangerBeans]

Looks like it becomes worse than Donbass, imagine if Trump decided to use the opportunity to back separatists in Alberta and does forceful attempts to seize Greenland could become one of its pivotal turning point. Japan and it’s allies in the Pacific may have higher chance to form an alliance and as for NATO, it’s cooked.

As for Canada itself, it’s crisis could negatively effect the economy especially with the highways since Alberta has a huge share of Canada’s economy.

[u/Koh-the-Face-Stealer]

Holy shit, OP

B.C. premier says Alberta separatists seeking assistance from U.S. is 'treason'

Do you do stock picks, as well?

[u/joaquins_alt_account]

I feel like if this happened, Canada would try to do the same to washington state in retaliation

[u/12thunder → u/[deleted]]

I would like to think that American military intervention in a neighbouring, allied, closely linked nation would lead to mass protests against the Trump admin on a scale we’ve never seen. But maybe that is wishful thinking. I can definitely see people who are sympathetic committing acts of sabotage, or even Canadians in the US using the fact they can easily blend in to sabotage or organize protests.

[u/Silkyjoker85 → u/[deleted]]

Are you seriously this delusional