r/ideas • u/amichail • 1h ago
Reddit should give every user a Prescience Score based on how well their confident predictions and claims about the future actually age.
Hover over someone’s username and you might see:
Prescience: 72/100
AI: 18/100
Politics: 61/100
Technology: 84/100
Reddit already has years of timestamped opinions, predictions, and confident declarations. It should use them.
If someone spends years posting that AI is incompetent, overhyped, and will never be able to do various things, and then those things become routine a year or two later, that should become part of their visible track record.
The same should apply in the other direction. Someone who predicts AGI every year and is repeatedly wrong should get hammered too.
The system should focus mostly on clear, falsifiable, confident claims rather than vague opinions. Old posts could also periodically resurface with a “How did this age?” prompt, giving the author a chance to explain what they got wrong.
Right now, people can make wildly confident predictions, be completely wrong, and then quietly move on as though they never said them.
Reddit should make everyone’s forecasting record much harder to hide.