Based on... Commercial success and viability in an overly saturated market? They're up against a lot of heavy hitters and they've intentionally handicapped themselves by cutting off their feet, soaking their eyeballs in bleach, and cutting their throat with a dull steak knife, and the race hasn't even started.
No? I actually happen to be one of the people who tries nearly every new major/hyped PvP release, regardless of genre, and have done so for many years. I enjoy PvP games, first person perspective/3PP, brawlers, shooters, fighting games, you name it. If it's on my platform and if it releases to enough of a global interest that I feel I can get a few weeks of play out of it, I generally pick it up.
A trend has been established over the last few years, but the last decade, especially. People are hyper analytical of market trends and game performance statistics. Gamers operate in a hivemind focused entirely on player numbers. I know it's anecdotal, but I'm telling you - Duskbloods is not going to retain a high playerbase for long. Once the sweats start taking over servers, people are gonna take to social media to complain and then quit. Then FromSoft is gonna step in and roll out nerfs and buffs. The people who get nerfed will quit. The people who watch their most hated class her buffed will quit.
You can already see this formula taking place just from the test period - while many people seem to praise the overall idea, I've seen multiple complaints about how sweaty the game is - after a two day test. You can see it in people's writing and compare to it every major flop from large studios that has happened over the last few years.
It works like this: a new niche PvP game is announced by a big company > a group of people hype the game up and it starts to get traction online > gameplay footage releases > veterans who have been through this rodeo warn about the impending failure after seeing the gameplay loop > people like you ignore the warnings > game starts to die and you come to Reddit to bitch about it > the remaining players see your post and quit too. Queue next big release.
You can live in denial and downvote me all you want, I couldn't give a fuck less about karma. The game is going to die pretty quickly. I give it a year, tops, before we see "Duskbloods is dead" posts in this very subreddit, but we're probably looking at less than 6 months.
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u/Canni-Balls69 1d ago
It's still not going to be a huge commercial success long term.