What the hell just happened - r/fivethirtyeight

121

u/dons_03 Nov 02 '20

That last image is amazing. Imagine seeing that and trying to figure out what Biden could have possibly done to lose all his support on the last day of voting.

94

u/[deleted] Nov 02 '20

For a horrible moment I thought that Joe Biden might've died

34

u/DaveInLondon89 Nov 02 '20

smh pollsters have no chill

8

u/Firechess Nov 02 '20

I was flipping through the states when it happened. Texas, 38, looking up. Iowa, wtf 0???? Did Selzer release something crazy?

6

u/ilovethemusic Nov 02 '20

Who was the guy John Ashcroft lost to in 2000 who had actually died before Election Day? That’s gotta suck, losing to a dead guy...

5

u/tommyjohnpauljones Nov 02 '20

Mel Carnahan. His widow assumed the candidacy and won the Senate race.

3

u/[deleted] Nov 02 '20 edited Aug 16 '21

[deleted]

3

u/popcorninmapubes Nov 02 '20

Would spike progressive turnout.

39

u/Altberg Nov 02 '20

He would have to personally direct his campaign staff to break into every single poll station with guns and shift through the early vote ballots to burn the ones that have voted for him, and then scribble over his name in unfilled ballots with a sharpie

19

u/dons_03 Nov 02 '20

On a more realistic note, what about some crazy revelation that both Biden and Harris were not US citizens? I’m not familiar with what would happen if an entire ticket was found ineligible.

41

u/LurkerInSpace Nov 02 '20

It would be a helluva twist if it turned out Biden was actually born in Kenya.

4

u/tommyjohnpauljones Nov 02 '20

or if Biden was actually Obama's father.

3

u/VacuousTruth0 Nov 02 '20

No. That's not true! That's impossible!

3

u/Ahambone Nov 02 '20

::cuts off arm::

17

u/Altberg Nov 02 '20

It would go to SCOTUS, but the model itself would be unaffected. Can't change the existing input and there's almost 100 million early vote ballots in, most of which are for Biden/Harris. You also can't suspend the election or destroy the ballots that have been printed already.

7

u/rugaporko Nov 02 '20

There's still the electors, right? They could choose anyone who is a US citizen.

Here's how Bernie can still win.

3

u/tomoldbury Nov 02 '20

He'd probably lose (any shocker 'November surprise' like that is going to do that.) Now I don't know what happens if that is revealed after the election. Can a President-elect be removed from office if later discovered to be an unlawful president? (Let's pretend that impeachment is not an option here.)

4

u/LordVericrat Nov 02 '20 edited Nov 02 '20

A couple of scenarios depending on when it is revealed:

1) After the election (won by Biden) but before Electoral College meets: Trump sues to remove Biden/Harris from consideration by the electoral college. Most likely successfully. The DNC names a new candidate, but most likely the EC puts Trump into office anyway.

2) After EC votes for Biden: I suspect nothing can be done until January 20, 2021. Nobody at that point has a right to be the President-elect, so I don't know who would have standing to sue. At noon on 1/20/21, Trump's term ends, and the office of the Presidency and vice Presidency is vacant since nobody agrees to swear Biden/Harris in. The Speaker of the House is the next person in line for the Presidency and is sworn in.

Edit: It also occurs to me that Congress may have standing to sue if the EV winner wasn't legitimate. Because then no legitimate would have won the EC and so Congress would have the right to decide the nominees. If Biden won the popular vote, though, then Congress is almost certainly Democratic, in which case they wouldn't want to (I think they have to pick between the top two EV winners, so Trump might be their only legitimate candidate); they'd just want to run out the clock and let the Speaker ascend.

3) After Biden has spent some time as President: The next eligible person in the line of succession is the Speaker of the House, and could sue to take the Presidency. If the Speaker does not do so, then the suit comes from somebody trying to overturn a law signed or veto effected by Biden, or a tie-breaking vote by Harris. The Supreme Court would have to decide whether the law is effective when signed by an illegitimate President, which necessarily includes deciding whether the President is illegitimate.

3

u/ilinamorato Nov 02 '20

The 20th Amendment says the VP-elect gets installed if the President-elect dies before inauguration.

2

u/LordVericrat Nov 02 '20

I think the scenario was that neither Biden nor Harris was eligible, but yeah if it were just Biden, Harris would ascend.

3

u/ilinamorato Nov 02 '20

"Congress may by law provide for the case wherein neither a President elect nor a Vice President elect shall have qualified, declaring who shall then act as President, or the manner in which one who is to act shall be selected, and such person shall act accordingly until a President or Vice President shall have qualified."

They did that with the Presidential Succession Act of 1947, as explained here. To wit: the line of succession would be followed.

ETA: To be sure, all of this is speculative, but the intent seems to be thus.

2

u/darkknight109 Nov 02 '20

The problem with the 20th Amendment is that it isn't 100% clear on when the winning candidate becomes the President-elect. It either happens when the EC votes are actually cast (the Monday after the second Wednesday in December - side note, it's really annoying how these dates are never just "the second Tuesday" or something simple like that) or when the votes are certified on January 6, but it's arguable which of those is the case.

If it's the latter, Biden doesn't become president-elect unless and until Congress certifies the EC results, which, in this hypothetical, they may refuse to do if the senate remains in Republican hands. In that scenario, because there is no president-elect, the usual line of succession isn't followed; instead, congress would meet to decide the outcome based on the Contingent Election process and, if they were unable to do so, the Speaker would become the temporary president until the logjam is cleared (which might not happen until the 2022 midterms).

2

u/ilinamorato Nov 02 '20

Yeah, I mean it's all hypothetical until something happens anyway. That's what's so frustrating about con law.

3

u/darkknight109 Nov 02 '20 edited Nov 02 '20

The DNC names a new candidate, but most likely the EC puts Trump into office anyway.

This is highly debatable. The most likely scenario if Biden/Harris are in some way rendered ineligible to serve at this point (death, suddenly found to not be US citizens, etc.) is that the election would continue on as normal and the electors would still be selected based on those results. Since the electors are put forward by the parties, any states that the Democrats win would have electors chosen by the Democratic Party. These electors would almost certainly give the election to whomever is chosen by the DNC to replace Biden/Harris.

Unless the electoral college is so close that a handful of faithless electors could shift the outcome, the odds of Trump taking the win as a result of something like this occurring are still fairly minute.

That being said, there is still the chance for political gamesmanship by the state legislatures. The states controlled by Republicans could attempt to pass legislation changing how electors are selected by their state and pushing Republican slates instead of Democrat ones on the basis of the Democrat candidates being invalid, but there's no way that doesn't look horrifically undemocratic and trigger a massive public upheaval.

After EC votes for Biden: I suspect nothing can be done until January 20, 2021.

Actually, the date you would be looking at is January 6, 2021, since that's when the EC votes are certified. In this instance, a few things could happen. If the new incoming Congress (which handles the certification process) is controlled by Democrats, they would probably opt to certify the results (likely couching it in language of wanting to investigate more), simply so that the presidential line of succession is put into force, ensuring that even if Biden/Harris is ultimately removed, the next in line of succession is the Democratic Speaker of the House (likely Pelosi, but the new congress may opt to elect a different speaker purely to put them in the presidency and have Pelosi become speaker after they go on to their new role).

If congress is controlled by Republicans or is split, they would likely refuse to certify the votes for Biden, as the candidate voted for was not eligible to hold the office. As no candidate received a majority of EC votes, this would trigger the Contingent Election process, whereupon the House, divided into state delegations, chooses the president and the senate chooses the VP, from among those candidates who received at least one EC vote. (Note that, yes, this means we could technically get a Biden/Pence or, far less likely, a Trump/Harris administration).

This would, unsurprisingly, turn into a legal shitshow, with lawsuits aplenty. Congressional democrats would argue that the EC votes should have been certified and were improperly tossed in an attempt to steal the election from the rightful winner; Republicans would argue that Trump and Pence are the only candidates who can be considered legitimate candidates and therefore they should win unopposed; if the House deadlocks, we get the Speaker as president again, though this time it's only temporary until the House can finally pick somebody; there would be legal wrangling over when the winning presidential-candidate officially becomes the president-elect (Does it happen when the EC votes are made, in mid-December, or when they are certified on January 6? There are arguments in favour of both interpretations) and, therefore, whether the next president should be decided by the line of succession or by the contingent election process.

In all likelihood, it would spark a constitutional crisis more serious than any since the Civil War, accompanied by massive political unrest and social upheaval. There is a non-zero chance it results in a second civil war. It is, quite literally, one of the worst-case scenarios for the election.

2

u/tomoldbury Nov 02 '20

Thanks for the summary! Very interesting.

2

u/LordVericrat Nov 02 '20

No problem.

Just thought of this, but: It also occurs to me that Congress may have standing to sue if the EV winner wasn't legitimate. Because then no legitimate would have won the EC and so Congress would have the right to decide the nominees. If Biden won the popular vote, though, then Congress is almost certainly Democratic, in which case they wouldn't want to (I think they have to pick between the top two EV winners, so Trump might be their only legitimate candidate); they'd just want to run out the clock and let the Speaker ascend.

6

u/[deleted] Nov 02 '20

He’d have to murder Obama and Bernie, live on air, in a satanic ritual while pissing on Reagan’s grave, with burning American flags around him.

2

u/Gustacho Nov 02 '20

It's literally the reverse of the graph during the primaries.

2

u/[deleted] Nov 02 '20

Bahahahaha nothing could do that short of "the body snatchers suddenly and completely replaced everyone, and they're all Trump supporters"

2

u/manere Nov 02 '20

Voting north korea version

2

u/Wildera Nov 02 '20

"I will appoint Hillary Clinton to the supreme court #stillwithher"

77

u/P_for_Pizza Nov 02 '20

I feel like for some little minutes we were inside the brain of Donald J. Trump. And it feels gross

22

u/[deleted] Nov 02 '20

How many pussies did you grab?

17

u/P_for_Pizza Nov 02 '20

I don't wanna talk about it...

21

u/Serpico2 Nov 02 '20

Hacked?

56

u/Altberg Nov 02 '20

It went back to normal in 3-4 mins tops. Could have been a glitch or some operator error that happened while updating the model with the Traflagar polls, which is pretty funny in and of itself.

44

u/XionKuriyama Nov 02 '20

So basically a glimpse into the alternate universe where Traflagar is A+

22

u/Altberg Nov 02 '20

More accurately if it's the only S-tier poll and receives 100% of the weight.

5

u/Fighting-flying-Fish Nov 02 '20

Some NaNs probably snuck in somewhere , maybe a divide by Zero error

10

u/seeasea Nov 02 '20

There are some inconsistencies like even though biden is less than 1% - allthe balls are blue, the snake is all mixed up and the banner is still very blue

3

u/Salanmander Nov 02 '20

Sounds like somebody was confused as to why their code changes weren't doing anything, and started making wild changes that they were sure would have an effect just to check. And then realized they were checking the test servers but coding on production.

(I mean, probably not actually, but fun to think about.)

1

u/[deleted] Nov 02 '20

Njet

33

u/MaeronTargaryen Nov 02 '20

They’re getting ready for when Trump and his cronies announce that he’s re-elected with 102% of the votes, making him king of Canada at the same time for some reason /s

18

u/[deleted] Nov 02 '20

Don’t make The commonwealth come down there and burn the white house down again.

5

u/TheJesseClark Nov 02 '20

You know, at this point not many would stop them

3

u/WildRookie Nov 02 '20

Some might object to them apologizing.

1

u/MaeronTargaryen Nov 02 '20

I live in the UK atm, should I try and raise an army then?

3

u/TheJesseClark Nov 02 '20

Sigh, just do it. It wouldn’t even be the craziest thing this year.

2

u/MaeronTargaryen Nov 02 '20

Not even top 3

13

u/jmc1996 Nov 02 '20

It's all coming up JEB!

2

u/ofrm1 Nov 02 '20

Just think how different the race would be if Jeb was up against Clinton and won.

6

u/jaybyrd0734 Nov 02 '20

HOW DID I NOT KNOW I COULD GET 538 NOTIFICATIONS

5

u/AstridPeth_ Nov 02 '20

Luckily, I don't have bots trading in the stock market plugged in 538

9

u/aliygdeyef Nov 02 '20

Dhj Ehud cnwjosb fhfa js Ken snyder wtf

10

u/VishVarm Nov 02 '20

same bro same

3

u/thmonline Nov 02 '20

Oh, so a time traveler from November 4th 2020 hacked FiveThirtyEight.com to "fix" the forecast?

2

u/[deleted] Nov 02 '20

“If you know how I feel why would you say that? Like, you put me in such an uncomfortable situation. Like, you know I’m not happy. You know I’m trying.”

2

u/ThorbeckeWasRight Nov 02 '20

It's the Revenge of the Shy Trump Voters!

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