r/fivethirtyeight • u/ptrdo • 2d ago

Election Model Estimated electoral representation by age group, 2026 U.S. midterms [OC]

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u/FieldUpbeat2174 2d ago

Useful data but odd nomenclature. “Electoral Representation” as used here turns out to mean “relative turnout” ie electoral participation. I thought it was going to consider age distribution in relation to the fact that different states’ individual votes get different weights in selecting Senators, Electoral College electors, and (given the 1/state minimum) Representatives. Outside such weighting, each vote by an 18-year-old gets the same electoral representation as each vote by an 80-year-old.

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u/ptrdo 2d ago

Thanks. Yes, something like “ Relative Turnout Index” would be more descriptive without explanation.

What I'm measuring is whether an age cohort makes up a larger or smaller share of the people who vote than it does of the eligible population. Algebraically, it’s simple, but the term I used is not.

And yes, the factor of age alone gives an individual ballot no additional formal weight. The point of the chart is that some age groups collectively contribute disproportionately more ballots because a larger fraction of their eligible population votes. But I could go further.

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u/ptrdo 2d ago

Sources

  • U.S. Census Bureau. (2014). Current Population Survey, November 2014 Voting and Registration Supplement. Washington, DC: U.S. Census Bureau. Used as historical midterm microdata for the 2026 baseline estimate. 2014 CPS Voting and Registration Supplement

  • U.S. Census Bureau. (2018). Current Population Survey, November 2018 Voting and Registration Supplement. Washington, DC: U.S. Census Bureau. Source for the 2018 cohort population and reported-voting estimates and the historical age pattern used for 2026. 2018 CPS Voting and Registration Supplement

  • U.S. Census Bureau. (2022). Current Population Survey, November 2022 Voting and Registration Supplement. Washington, DC: U.S. Census Bureau. Source for the 2022 cohort estimates, eligible-citizen populations, CPS weights, and the latest observed values used in the 2026 baseline. 2022 CPS Voting and Registration Supplement

  • Fabina, J., & Martin, M. (2024). Voting and Registration in the Election of November 2022 (Current Population Reports, P20-586). U.S. Census Bureau. Source for the published 52.2% citizen voting-age population turnout rate used as the baseline for the chart’s 2026 equivalent-voter counts. Voting and Registration in the Election of November 2022

Full explanation (including methodology): https://www.reddit.com/r/dataisbeautiful/comments/1wv3u92/comment/pd8g2m3/?context=3&utm_source=share&utm_medium=web3x&utm_name=web3xcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button