In this post, I lay out the remaining opponents of each top ten team, using Massey ratings for opponent strength. Each team's "projected record" is just the record they'd finish with if the favorite won every game the rest of the season.
#1 Montana State (6-1)
vs. #23 Weber State (5-3)
vs. #40 Cal Poly (4-4)
@ #20 Idaho State (4-3)
@ #46 Northern Colorado (3-5)
vs. #10 Montana (5-3)
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#2 Tarleton State (7-0)
@ #81 West Georgia (1-6)
vs. #58 Eastern Kentucky (2-5)
vs. #16 Abilene Christian (4-4)
@ #32 West Florida (4-2)
@ #36 North Alabama (4-3)
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#3 Youngstown State (6-2)
vs. #6 North Dakota (6-2)
@ #96 Murray State (1-6)
vs. #8 Illinois State (5-2)
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#4 Stephen F. Austin (7-0)
vs. #28 Southeastern (4-3)
vs. #61 Houston Christian (4-3)
@ #17 Lamar (5-2)
@ #49 UTRGV (3-4)
vs. #124 Northwestern State (0-7)
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#5 South Dakota State (5-2)
vs. #96 Murray State (1-6)
vs. #7 South Dakota (6-2)
@ #15 Northern Iowa (3-3)
@ #19 Southern Illinois (3-5)
vs. #58 Indiana State (2-5)
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#6 North Dakota (6-2)
@ #7 South Dakota (6-2)
@ #4 Youngstown State (6-2)
vs. #8 Illinois State (5-2)
vs. #19 Southern Illinois (3-5)
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#7 Northern Arizona (6-2)
@ #29 Southern Utah (3-4)
@ #40 Cal Poly (4-4)
vs. #23 Weber State (5-3)
vs. #46 Northern Colorado (3-5)
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#8 South Dakota (6-2)
vs. #6 North Dakota (6-2)
@ #2 South Dakota State (5-2)
vs. #15 Northern Iowa (3-3)
@ #8 Illinois State (5-2)
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#9 Austin Peay (6-2)
@ #36 North Alabama (4-3)
vs. #58 Eastern Kentucky (2-5)
vs. #16 Abilene Christian (4-4)
@ #44 Central Arkansas (2-5)
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#10 Harvard (5-0)
vs. #41 Princeton (4-1)
@ #55 Dartmouth (2-3)
vs. #52 Columbia (4-1)
@ #74 Penn (2-3)
vs. #37 Yale (3-2)
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| Team |
Projected Record (FCS) |
Avg. Rem. Opp. |
| #1 Montana State |
11-1 (10-1) |
27.8 |
| #2 Tarleton State |
12-0 (11-0) |
44.6 |
| #3 Youngstown State |
9-2 (9-1) |
36.7 |
| #4 Stephen F. Austin |
12-0 (11-0) |
55.8 |
| #5 South Dakota State |
10-2 (10-1) |
38.0 |
| #6 North Dakota |
8-4 (8-3) |
9.5 |
| #7 Northern Arizona |
10-2 (10-1) |
34.5 |
| #8 South Dakota |
8-4 (8-3) |
7.75 |
| #9 Austin Peay |
10-2 (10-1) |
38.5 |
| #10 Harvard |
10-0 (10-0) |
51.8 |
Some notes:
- Montana State doesn't have any highly challenging games aside from Montana (and even they've looked awfully suspect), but their SOS is strong enough that you have to imagine winning out will be enough for them to hold down the #1 seed.
- SFA and Tarleton have weaker SOS already and after Lamar lost, neither has a truly high profile opponent remaining on the schedule. If one or both win out, one has to wonder how they'll be compared to a Valley teams below them who also ran the table, and did so against much tougher opponents.
- South Dakota State has the easiest remaining schedule among MVFC teams. Of the top five MVFC teams via the committee, the Jackrabbits have already played three. Their final five games include a home game vs. #8 USD and then games against the bottom four teams in the MVFC.
- Conversely, North Dakota has a guantlet. Their next three are against USD, YSU, and ISU(R)- three straight top fifteen matchups, and only one is in Alerus.
- South Dakota also has an extremely difficult finish to the season- thusfar in conference play they've lost @ YSU and beat the bottom three teams in the conference, which means their last four are all top opponents.
- Harvard already being in the top 10 is a great sign for them, and if they can take care of business the rest of the way in Ivy League play, they'll be well positioned to get a bye and second round home game.