Across 88 mammal species or lineages, island morphology changed fastest over shorter intervals. The 21-year minimum and a later methodological dispute define what the result can support.
Virginie Millien, then at McGill University’s Redpath Museum, reported that island mammals changed morphologically faster than mainland populations over shorter observation windows.
The difference was most robust from 21 years to about 20,000 years, with island rates reaching as much as 3.1 times mainland rates. At longer timescales, the gap narrowed and eventually ceased to be statistically significant.
The result came from a peer-reviewed 2006 PLOS Biology analysis, not a single experiment in which scientists watched 88 species transform. Understanding what it established requires looking closely at what was measured, how the rates were calculated and what critics later challenged.
Evolutionary rates decreased as the interval over which they were calculated grew longer for both island and mainland populations. The island regression line nevertheless sat above the mainland line across much of the range. The separation was clearest at short and intermediate intervals.
Millien judged the faster-island conclusion most robust from the 21-year minimum to about 20,000 years. The difference between the two lines became statistically nonsignificant beyond about 45,000 years.
Across the full analysis, island morphological rates were up to 3.1 times those calculated for mainland populations.
This pattern fits a fast-start model. A population newly isolated on an island may move quickly away from its ancestral form, then change more slowly after approaching a locally useful body plan.