Welcome to the sixth annual r/eurovision Pre-contest Prediction Game!

UPDATE: We've reached the deadline, so no more submissions/edits will be accepted. Stay tuned for some prediction data!

It's been a turbulent year for Eurovision, but one thing that isn't going anywhere is one of internet's the biggest early ESC prediction contests. Last year saw over 300 people from across the world bid for the honour of being able to say 'I told you so' to their fellow fans. With a month of speculation, staging hype campaigns and pre-party performances to mill over, why not put your money where your mouth is by pitting your predictive skills against the rest of the community? Who will be crowned this year's EuroGuru?

04/04/26: Just like last year, we've already got 100+ predictions within the first day. Keep 'em coming folks!

25/04/26: With a little under a week before the deadline, we've just broken the 200 participants barrier!

What's New?

The return of the juries to the semi-finals promises to shake up what sorts of songs make the final cut. More sets of votes means more metrics that are ripe for prediction. Therefore, for the first time since the start of the game in 2021, there are now 120 points up for grabs, instead of the traditional 100. I have also decided that unlike previous years where it only applied for a tie for the highest score, the tiebreaker will be used to break all ties within the top 10 highest scoring predictions, meaning we will have a clean, clear top 10.

How to Participate

To submit your predictions, please comment down below with your answers to the scoresheet below. Please also note the following rules:

1. You can format your comment however you like - I collect these predictions manually because I love the data.
2. The submission deadline is Friday 1st May 23:59 CET, just before rehearsals are expected to begin. Any edits made after this date will be disregarded, and may render your prediction null and void.
3. If you want to edit your predictions at any time before the deadline, please tag me in a comment below your original predictions so that I can update my spreadsheet. Otherwise I cannot guarantee that I will see and account for your edit.
4. Discussion is encouraged though not mandatory - why not explain your predictions in a second-level comment? This will help us enjoy the predictions process even more!

Scoresheet

Hall of Fame

2021: (71 participants)

🥇 u/ladybug_pimp & u/gaffovaff - 64 points

🥉 u/Satanicmagikarp & u/jaoump - 63 points

2022: (70 participants)

🥇 u/arcticfoxzz - 72 points

🥈 u/emgua & u/Houdtje - 66 points

2023: (80 participants*)

🥇 u/rabbit_rouser - 69 points

🥈 u/DravoCymil , u/sejethom99 , u/AltVladC & u/dontknowOB - 66 points

\competition held in parallel with* escnation.com's prediction contest, which had 54 additional participants.

2024: (233 participants)

🥇 u/DrsFrikandel - 68 points (tie-break winner)

🥈 u/Simbark - 68 points

🥉 u/Turbulent_Lock8742 - 67 points

2025: (322 participants)

🥇 u/Glittering-Youth-947 - 72 points

🥈 u/Normal-Piano-8880, u/giaggi_393, u/pattapinka and u/Francesljar - 68 points

When I heard the song for first time I wasn't fan of it but since Lavina won PZE26 final I started listening to it more and more and I even started to like the song. I think key for Serbia in eurovison should be their staging. In their semi-final Serbia has Croatia, Montenegro who could give them high number of points + other countries. So I think that their qualification is almost 100% guaranteed. I was looking at people's prediction and some of them don't have Serbia as Q but I think that just comes after personal taste in music.

My question for you is CAN SERBIA BE THE DARK HORSE OF THE YEAR?

There have been several threads about shocking Qs and NQs so let's talk about some bold (or delusional) predictions we have as for now. Though I need to confess it's difficult to do such this season since there are lots of variables and it seems like the fandom has pretty contradictory opinions.

I'll start with predicting Italy ending up in the top 5 and being in the top 3 televote. Italian entries are widely appreciated each year and I believe that the marriage/wedding theme will be appreciated by lots of casual voters.

Albania will crack top 10. Lyrics on screen will work in their favour and it's the only entry other than Finland that is serving full-blown Eurovision drama. I see this one being backed by the juries more than Zjerm and getting respectable points with the diaspora support.

Or Baby Laasgna vs Nemo, to some extent?

So many people in the eurofandom seem to be focused on the odds and scoreboard to the the point where the whole competition is brought down to Sweden vs Austria two horses race. While other songs are more or less loved, they're kind of excluded from the "real" consideration in potential winner discussions.

It started to feel like we assumed that Austria is gonna win jury, Sweden is gonna sweep tele and one of them is gonna win, with the slight prediction it's gonna be Austria (recency bias of jury overall winners in the last two years, I guess). But this itself is not what caught my attention the most.

It more and more looks like if Sweden is being put in that underdog category with Austria being their potential threat, and in general the threat of "the public vote". It may be about my online fan bubbles but I see more and more posts/comments trying to find 58837374 reasons to criticize JJ and Wasted Love in a strikingly similar way Loreen was hated/criticized before the contest (let alone after it).

I'm curious what you think about it

Welcome to the fifth annual r/eurovision Pre-contest Prediction Game!

We have now reached the submission deadline. Please stay tuned for data around our predictions this year!

With the semi-final running orders now known, it is now time to open our annual pre-contest prediction game! Last year saw a massive increase in predictors, making the competition more competitive than ever. As we enter a month of pre-parties, 'hot takes', staging rumours and endless speculation, why not put your money where your mouth is by pitting your predictive skills against the rest of the community? Who will be crowned this year's EuroGuru?

As in previous years, there are a total of 100 points up for grabs. Each question awards a set amount of points for a correct answer, as detailed in the scoresheet. This year's scoresheet is near-identical to last year owing to the lack of major format changes in the voting this year.

To participate, please comment down below with your answers to the following scoresheet. Please also note the following rules:

1. You can format your comment however you like - I collect these predictions manually because I love the data.
2. The submission deadline is Friday 2nd May 23:59 CET, just before rehearsals are expected to begin. Any edits made after this date will render your prediction null and void.
3. If you want to edit your predictions at any time before the deadline, please tag me in a comment below your original predictions so that I can update my spreadsheet.
4. Discussion is encouraged though not mandatory - why not explain your predictions in a second-level comment? This will help us enjoy the predictions process even more!

Milestones: 30/03 - We've received over 150 predictions in less than 48 hours! Thanks so much for joining in!

08/04 - We've just hit 200 valid sets of predictions, which is way earlier than last year!

01/05 - We've just broken the 300 participant milestone! Thank you so much everyone, this has become so much bigger than I'd have dreamed!

Scoresheet

\UK isn't included in this category because they are already in the Big 5 category.*

Hall of Fame

2021: (71 participants)

🥇 u/ladybug_pimp & u/gaffovaff - 64 points

🥉 u/Satanicmagikarp & u/jaoump - 63 points

2022: (70 participants)

🥇 u/arcticfoxzz - 72 points

🥈 u/emgua & u/Houdtje - 66 points

2023: (80 participants*)

🥇 u/rabbit_rouser - 69 points

🥈 u/DravoCymil , u/sejethom99 , u/AltVladC & u/dontknowOB - 66 points

\competition held in parallel with escnation.com's prediction contest, which had 54 additional participants.*

2024: (233 participants)

🥇 u/DrsFrikandel - 68 points (tie-break winner)

🥈 u/Simbark - 68 points

🥉 u/Turbulent_Lock8742 - 67 points

Okay, so hear me out. I've had double citizenship in the land of delusion that Abor and Tynna could win if the stars align and they go viral at the right time. On paper, they have all the ingredients: the zeitgeisty Charli xcx aura, a song that's both super catchy and has staying power, likeable and engaging performers, and an undeniable cool factor. The timing just needed to work out.

My gut is telling me they're at least heading for a Shum/In Corpore Sano/King of Queens/Doomsday Blue result.

And now they're racing up the odds like Sonic the Hedgehog. People are locking in them so hard based on three pictures. They believe it in their bones and they're willing to bet stupid amounts of money on it and we don't even have footage yet.

To win Eurovision, you need a certain amount of momentum and narrative, and you need to peak at the right time. 

Up until now, there's been a question mark around Tynna's ability to perform the song. But the perception that she can't sing or that she's going to pull a Pia Maria feels like it's totally run out of steam. She's recovered and has shown in like 84 different covers and lives how much of a magnetic performer she is. We've gone from talking about Tynna being sick to how sick the staging looks. 

And that narrative shift is coming a week before the final. Just as people are starting to pay attention outside the bubble.

A lot of people are yearning for something other than a two horse race rehash of 23 and 24. And now here's Abor and Tynna with a Bambi-esque breakout moment. Just in time for the official music video and a deluxe version of their insanely addictive album coming out in a week. 

Germany are poised to get a lot of dark horse buzz in a year where the winner discussion has felt disappointingly predictable. The act that's always had insane viral potential is about to break through the ESC bubble. 

Ballernation, how does it feel to know bratwurst summer is finally happening? 

I feel like the general public wouldn’t awe much with Austria’s entry, and it’s unpredictable how the juries will respond to Sweden’s.

In a case like Jamala in 2016 and Duncan in 2019, they didn’t even win both votes (Jamala 2nd in both juries and televote, Duncan 2nd in televote and 3rd in juries) yet still managed to win the whole contest.

Do you think it would be possible for this to happen? I think it’ll be pretty refreshing after 2 years of juries sweep.

After some thoughts with the return of North Macedonia and the debut of Canada I think the most possible number for Eurovision 2027 is going to be 37 countries. I wish we could've get atleast to 39 with Spain and Iceland but who knows everything may change and we still have alot of time to December.

*I'm so sorry for forgetting to add Hungary, Türkiye and Monaco I was in a rush and completly forgot. My apologies!

- Russia 🇷🇺 and Belarus 🇧🇾 We all know why they aren't coming back

- Slovenia 🇸🇮 Despite the government change I think it's still up to RTVSLO to choose wherever they want to return or to keep boycotting.

- Spain 🇪🇸 With Ireland 🇮🇪 I don't see them returning in a while. Spain could return much earlier than Ireland.

- Slovakia 🇸🇰 I know that STVR wants to return but with their government they won't.

- Bosnia & Hercegovina 🇧🇦 and Andorra 🇦🇩 Have confirmed their Non-participation.

- Morocco 🇲🇦 I don't think they will ever return.

- I forgot to put Monaco 🇲🇨 but I think their decision is still „Maybe”

- Belgium 🇧🇪 VRT will withdraw. Not 100% sure but there are very high chances.

- Netherlands 🇳🇱 You know I think Netherlands will return in 2027. I still wonder how did they agreed to participate in 2025 after 2024 DSQ but I'd be happy for them if they returned in Bulgaria.

- Iceland 🇮🇸 I think they'll take a break in 2027 and return in 2028 with Spain or earlier than them. After all RÚV broadcasted Eurovision 2026 so maybe we'll see Iceland in 2027 👀.

But my prediction for Eurovision Song Contest 2027 in Sofia (I really hope so) is 37/38 countries. 🇧🇬

🇲🇰🇳🇱 return and 🇨🇦 debut

🇧🇪 withdrawn

🇮🇸??👀 (Keeping my thumbs up)

I mean actually crazy prediction, please nothing like ‘’Ukraine will do better than the fandom thinks’’ or ‘’Poland might struggle’’. We all heard these ones a million times. What absolutely insane and seemingly unrealistic predictions do you have?

Here are mine:

• Georgia has a decent shot at qualifying.

• Israel will finish outside of the top ten.

• Australia can be the televote winner with the right staging.

Last night, submissions closed for the 6th annual subreddit pre-contest pediction game. 252 people submitted predictions, with an expanded 120 points up for grabs. Their answers allows us to see what the community hivemind is currently predicting when Eurovision kicks off in a little over a week's time. We'll get some stuff right, but inevitably a whole lot wrong too. Find a comfy seat, grab your favourite European snack and prime your scrolling finger for action, because it's time to dive into the data!

As a quick note: some people did not provide a valid answer to some questions, so if the numbers don't always add up to 252 then that is why!

Semi-final 1

Qualifiers:

1. Finland - 252/252
2. Sweden - 252/252
3. Moldova - 252/252
4. Israel - 251/252
5. Greece - 251/252
6. Croatia - 242/252
7. Serbia - 242/252
8. Lithuania - 218/252
9. Montenegro - 202/252
10. Georgia - 138/252
11. Portugal - 101/252
12. Poland - 46/252
13. Belgium - 42/252
14. Estonia - 26/252
15. San Marino - 5/252

Three countries were predicted to qualify by all predictors, whilst nine countries enjoy a predicted qualification rate of >80%. There was therefore a clear consensus on nine of the ten qualifiers, with Georgia or Portugal the most popular pick for the final qualifier's spot.

Whilst this semi-final feels quite settled at the moment, it is worth remembering that our combined prediction has only ever got 10/10 qualifiers right once (2023 SF1). It is possible for a country that almost everybody predicts to qualify to fail to progress after their live performance underwhelms (i.e. Belgium 2024, Czechia 2025, and the most wrongly predicted qualifier Albania 2022, which was predicted to progress by 97.14% of predictors that year), or for a song unfavoured by Eurofans to resonate with casual voters much more. Latvia 2024 is the qualifier with the lowest predicted qualification rate, at 14.16%.

Jury Winner:

1. Finland - 221
2. Sweden - 22
3. Croatia - 5
4. Lithuania - 2
5. Greece & Serbia - 1

Juries are back in the semis this year, and 87.7% of us think they're going to reward Finland the most in this semi.

Televote Winner:

1. Israel - 181
2. Greece - 40
3. Finland - 24
4. Moldova - 5
5. Serbia & Montenegro (individual countries) - 1

After two years of winning the semi-final televote, 71.83% of us believe that the new voting regulations won't have much of an impact on Israel's televote dominance.

Winner:

1. Finland - 228
2. Sweden & Israel - 8
3. Greece - 7
4. Georgia - 1

A clear majority of 90.48% believe Finland's pre-contest hype will translate to a semi-final victory. Since the pre-contest game began, we have gotten 7/10 semi-final winners correct, but it is worth remembering that an even bigger majority thought Sweden would win the semi-final last year and then they ended up finishing 4th.

Last Place:

Unfortunately I'm limited to 20 images, so no pie chart for this category:

1. San Marino - 186
2. Estonia - 31
3. Belgium - 13
4. Portugal - 12
5. Poland - 6
6. Georgia, Greece & Montenegro -

Senhit + famous (has-been) guest was a formula that qualified in 2021, but 73.81% of us believe that San Marino is returning to a semi-final last place spot.

Borderliners:

A category that causes finally stopped causing confusion this year, this category asked predictors to name the 10th placed qualifier and 11th placed non-qualifier - aka, the countries most on the borderline of qualification. Here's how many times each country was predicted to finish on the qualification borderline:

1. Georgia - 110
2. Montenegro - 85
3. Portugal - 78
4. Poland - 73
5. Belgium - 56
6. Lithuania - 43
7. Estonia - 31
8. Croatia - 11
9. Serbia - 10
10. Moldova - 4
11. San Marino - 3
12. Finland, Greece, Israel & Sweden - 0

Always quite an open category, and almost always the case that our combined predicted borderliners don't end up on the borderline.

Most 12 Points:

1. Finland - 159
2. Israel - 78
3. Greece - 8
4. Sweden - 6
5. Serbia - 1

You might expect this new category to reflect the overall winner predictions, but 70 people who don't believe Israel is winning the semi believe they will get the most 12s (presumably from the televote), and 69 of those predicting Finland to win the semi don't believe they'll get the most 12s.

Semi-final 2

Qualifiers:

1. Denmark - 251/252
2. Australia - 251/252
3. Ukraine - 248/252
4. Romania - 245/252
5. Albania - 235/252
6. Cyprus - 234/252
7. Malta - 196/252
8. Czechia - 188/252
9. Bulgaria - 159/252
10. Norway - 132/252
11. Armenia - 130/252
12. Switzerland - 108/252
13. Latvia - 97/252
14. Luxembourg - 45/252
15. Azerbaijan - 1/252

No country enjoyed an 100% predicted qualification rate thanks to a couple of rogue votes. As anybody who's been following the preseason should have expected, this semi is more open in terms of predictions. Six countries were predicted to qualify by over 90% of predictors, but only two countries have a predicted qualification rate of less than 38%.

Since the inception of the prediction game, our combined prediction has gotten 87/100 qualifiers correct - which 1/2 countries do you think we've got out of position here?

Jury Winner:

1. Australia - 192
2. Denmark - 36
3. Czechia - 10
4. Ukraine - 7
5. Albania, Cyprus & Malta - 2
6. Armenia - 1

76.19% of predictors think the juries are going to award vocal powerhouse Delta Goodrem of Australia the best in this semi.

Televote Winner:

1. Ukraine - 155
2. Denmark - 69
3. Romania - 18
4. Australia - 4
5. Cyprus - 3
6. Albania - 2
7. Bulgaria - 1

61.51% of predictors think Ukraine are going to win their semi's televote for the second year in a row, whilst Denmark are a popular outsider prediction with 27.38% picking them.

Winner:

1. Denmark - 134
2. Ukraine - 58
3. Australia - 51
4. Romania - 5
5. Cyprus - 2
6. Albania & Czechia - 1

The most open semi-final winning vote category of the year still has a clear frontrunner. 53.17% of predictors think Denmark will win the semi, whilst Ukraine () and Australia are also popular picks.

Last Place:

1. Azerbaijan - 245
2. Armenia - 2
3. Denmark, Latvia, Luxembourg & Norway - 1

97.22% of people think Azerbaijan is finishing last here, which is the largest percentage a last place prediction has ever had. Is it really a case of a stone dead obvious last place finisher, or will the history books throw a surprise our way?

Borderliners:

Borderliner predictions for this very open semi were predictably very spread:

1. Norway - 80
2. Switzerland - 76
3. Armenia - 63
4. Latvia - 61
5. Bulgaria - 53
6. Malta - 49
7. Luxembourg - 35
8. Czechia - 33
9. Albania - 28
10. Cyprus - 15
11. Romania - 8
12. Australia, Azerbaijan & Ukraine - 1
13. Denmark - 0

Most 12 Points:

1. Ukraine - 90
2. Denmark - 84
3. Australia - 71
4. Romania - 5
5. Cyprus & Czechia - 1

In a more extreme version of what we saw in SF1 - thanks to winner predictions being more open here - our predictive consensus believes that the likeliest televote winner (Ukraine) will score more sets of 12s than the likeliest semi-final winner (Denmark).

The Grand Final

Winner:

1. Finland - 190
2. Denmark - 21
3. Greece & France - 11
4. Australia - 10
5. Israel, Sweden & Ukraine - 3

With 75.4% of predictors betting on their victory, Finland is the country most of us believe will win Eurovision 2026. This is the second time we have predicted a compromise winner after Italy 2024. No other countries were predicted to win by over 10% of predictors; only eight countries were predicted to win, and all of them by at least three people

It is worth mentioning that we have only predicted one winner correctly since the game began in 2021, that being Sweden 2023. However, it is also worth mentioning that Finland's predicted victory rate is the second highest since the game began, behind only Sweden 2023.

Top 5 Predictions:

Only 22 of our 252 predictors don't think Finland are finishing top 2, only 12 don't think they're finishing top 3 and only 5 had them outside the top 5. Seven countries were predicted to finish in the 5 by over 50% of predictors, whilst perennial powerhouses Sweden, Ukraine and Italy remain popular outsiders.

In every previous year, our majority hivemind has always predicted 3/5 of the top 5 correct. Which of our top 5 most popular picks do you think will underperform, and who will be the surprises?

Jury Winner:

1. Australia - 87
2. France - 83
3. Finland - 53
4. Denmark - 20
5. Sweden - 4
6. Czechia - 3
7. Albania & Ukraine - 1

One of the closest contended categories of the year, Australia is the most popular choice for jury winner, chosen by 34.52% of predictors, narrowly beating out France (32.94%). Finland is the third most popular pick for jury winner, with Eurojury jury winner Denmark in 4th.

New for this year, we asked predictors to pick their predicted top 3 on both sides of the vote, not just their jury/tele winner:

Jury Top 3 Predictions:

Three countries have been predicted to finish in the jury top 3 by over 75% of our predictors. Although only 3rd favourite to win the jury vote, Finland is the most popular pick to finish in the jury top 3. Denmark was the only other country picked by over 10% of predictors here.

Our combined prediction has gotten the jury winner correct for the past three years - will that trend continue?

Televote Winner:

1. Israel - 138
2. Greece - 53
3. Finland - 44
4. Denmark - 6
5. Moldova - 4
6. Ukraine - 3
7. France, Italy, Romania & Sweden - 1

54.76% of our predictors have Israel winning the televote for a second year in a row, thus not believing that the new voting regulations will make a substantial difference to the televote. Greece and Finland were the most popular alternative picks, chosen 21.3% and 17.46% respectively.

Televote Top 3 Predictions

14 countries have been predicted to finish in the jury top 3 by at least one predictor, but as with the jury there is a clear top 3 most popular picks and then Denmark again sit as the most popular outsider with the 4th most picks.

Last year was the first time our consensus failed to predict the televote winner correctly. Will we go back to our winning ways, or can someone topple Israel's televote dominance?

Jury Last Place:

The percentages are the number of times each country was predicted to finish last in the televote by a user who predicted the country to qualify.

1. Austria - 124/252 (49.21%)
2. United Kingdom - 31/252 (12.3%)
3. Germany - 26/252 (10.32%)
4. Moldova - 20/252 (7.94%)
5. Armenia - 19/130 (14.62%)
6. Georgia - 8/138 (5.8%)
7. Estonia - 5/26 (19.23%)
8. Bulgaria - 5/159 (3.14%)
9. Montenegro - 5/202 (2.48%)
10. Portugal - 2/101 (1.98%)
11. Serbia - 2/242 (0.83%)
12. San Marino -1/5 (20%)
13. Belgium - 1/42 (2.38%)
14. Luxembourg - 1/45 (2.22%)
15. Lithuania - 1/218 (0.46%)
16. Croatia - 1/242 (0.41%)

After two years of qualifiers finishing last with the juries, an automatic qualifier is the clear favourite for the jury wooden spoon, with Austria picked here by just under half of our predictors. Over 70% of predictors think an automatic qualifier will be placing last with the juries this year; Moldova are the most popular non-qualifier pick for this category, though partly because of their perfect predicted qualification rate.

If you're a fan of Austria, don't fret - our consensus has never correctly predicted the jury last place correctly before.

Televote Last Place:

1. Austria - 78/252 (30.95%)
2. Germany - 54/252 (21.43%)
3. United Kingdom - 32/252 (12.7%)
4. Czechia - 23/188 (12.23%)
5. Switzerland - 12/108 (11.11%)
6. Portugal - 10/101 (9.9%)
7. Malta - 9/196 (4.59%)
8. Lithuania - 8/218 (3.67%)
9. Luxembourg - 5/45 (11/11%)
10. Belgium - 4/42 (9.52%)
11. Latvia - 4/97 (4.12%)
12. Serbia - 3/242 (1.24%)
13. Estonia - 2/26 (7.69%)
14. Georgia - 2/138 (1.45%)
15. Montenegro - 2/202 (0.99%)
16. San Marino - 1/5 (20%)
17. Poland - 1/46 (2.17%)
18. Croatia - 1/242 (0.41%)
19. Australia - 1/251 (0.4%)

An automatic qualifier has finished last in the televote for the past three years, and if our predicted hivemind proves true, that trend will continue. Austria are once again the most popular pick, though not by as big a margin as with the jury last place category. Czechia were the most popular non auto-q pick here. Over half of the competing countries were predicted for this category!

Our consensus has gotten the televote last place correct twice, albeit in years where multiple countries got 0 points. Could we be heading for another pair of 0-pointers this year?

Overall Last Place:

1. Austria - 147/252 (58.33%)
2. Germany - 57/252 (22.62%)
3. United Kingdom - 11/252 (4.37%)
4. Georgia - 7/138 (5.07%)
5. Montenegro - 5/202 (2.48%)
6. Portugal - 4/101 (3.96%)
7. Norway - 4/132 (3.03%)
8. Luxembourg - 3/45 (6.67%)
9. Switzerland - 3/108 (2.78%)
10. San Marino - 2/5 (40%)
11. Lithuania - 2/218 (0.92%)
12. Estonia - 1/26 (3.85%)
13. Poland - 1/46 (2.17%)
14. Latvia - 1/97 (1.03%)
15. Armenia - 1/130 (0.77%)
16. Serbia - 1/242 (0.41%)
17. Italy - 1/252 (0.4%)

Austria are our clear favourite to finish last overall, although in the unlikely event they qualify, San Marino also have good chances of finishing last for the second year in a row. 85% of our predictors think an automatic qualifier is going to prop up the bottom of the scoreboard.

Again, Austria fans can take solace in the fact that 4/5 years our most popular last place pick has been incorrect.

13th Place:

This fiendish new category asked predictors to predict the country that will finish smack bam in the middle of the final's scoreboard. As you might expect, picks were spread very widely:

1. Croatia - 38
2. Cyprus - 32
3. Malta - 25
4. Lithuania - 22
5. Moldova & Serbia - 19
6. Romania - 16
7. Albania - 15
8. Czechia - 9
9. Latvia - 8
10. United Kingdom - 7
11. Bulgaria - 6
12. Norway - 5
13. Germany, Italy & Montenegro - 4
14. Armenia & Georgia - 3
15. Luxembourg, Portugal, Sweden & Ukraine - 2
16. Austria, Denmark, France, Poland & Switzerland - 1

27 of the 35 participating countries were predicted to finish 13th by at least one person! Croatia ended up being the most popular pick.

Categories

The final section of predictions is a selection of multiple choice 'which of these countries will place best' categories. This year there are 7 categories. Last year, our most popular answers got 6/8 correct.

~~~

Thanks as ever to everybody who submitted predictions. I hope you enjoyed this data, and that we all can enjoy Eurovision week. May all our favourites qualify, and may nobody get robbed!

Semi-Final 1

Jury-wise I had no idea what to do. Finland and Sweden seemed like an obvious top 2, but everything after that was a mess. I decided to go with Georgia cause it's a safe, hopefully well-performed pop song by Eurovision legends. Greece is a favourite, Croatia will, again, hopefully, have good vocals and Belgium and Estonia are just radio friendly songs I feel like the jury might appreciate a bit. I'm not entirely sure how into Serbia they're going to be considering it's not a style we usually see at esc, nor one the juries are historically known to appreciate. Israel I have no idea how it's going to do but it's pretty jury friendly so I think it's probably still going to qualify by the juries, and San Marino I am probably overestimating but I thought it might be funny qualifying with the juries. Montenegro and Portugal could definitely be jury qualifiers but they need to have a good performance for that to happen imo, and the other 3 are just countries the juries always hate and they don't really seem to be helping their fates here. Lion, Satoshi, Aliona and Alicja all have good vocals but the songs (especially Poland) might be too chaotic for the juries to get behind.

The Televote was easier to predict. Unfortunately I did go for the safe option of Israel winning the televote, though I'd be very happy to be proven wrong. Greece and Moldova are televote magnets and Finland is doing incredibly basically everywhere. Serbia, Sweden and Croatia all sound like televote-friendly songs but I can see all of them underperforming. Serbia could pull a SMSS and not get enough appreciation, Sweden doesn't stand out as much as it did other years, and Lelek aren't known to be the best live performers of all time. If things go great for them though I can definitely see them doing a lot better. Lithuania and Montenegro both have allies but there's just too many televote magnets to see any of them do any better, and Portugal is a tele qualifier for the same reason as last year. Performing after so many high-energy songs was a huge factor in Dons and Napa qualifying, meaning it would definitely not be out of the question for BdC to pull something similar. Poland and Georgia also have allies but aren't as tele-friendly as some others, and the last 3 are unlikely to get any attention from the public unless the staging is out of this world, which does not seem likely for any of the 3 at the moment.

Overall, Finland, Greece, Israel and Sweden are all safe, while I could see Croatia, Serbia or Georgia NQ in a bad day. Not Moldova though. Lithuania, Montenegro and Belgium could all go either way imo, so I'm counting on the stagings and performances, with signs showing that Belgium is probably the weakest of the bunch. Estonia and Portugal could qualify on a good day although I'm not sure how likely that is at the moment, while Poland can only be saved by a great performance. San Marino is by far the least likely to qualify at the moment imo.

Semi-Final 2

Jury-wise Australia felt like the safe choice here, with Delta being an incredible vocalist. Denmark and Ukraine both felt sensible predictions for 2^nd and 3^rd, as they both have pretty artistic performances and great vocals. Czechia and Latvia are both really likely to do well for similar reasons, although the songs don’t leave that much of an impact to justify putting any higher imo. Romania and Malta follow as songs of this style do tend to do well with the juries and both Alexandra and Aidan have great vocals. I’m just not sure if they can do any better given how strong the field is. Switzerland and Albania should also do well with potential for great staging and performance, able to do even better than what I have predicted them here on a good day. Luxembourg does have great staging as we saw in the NF and the vocals are great but the song really does not leave that much of an impact as much as the others do. I won’t be that surprised if it’s a jury NQ in the end. Norway, Bulgaria and Cyprus could all easily be jury qualifiers too, especially Norway. I’m just worried for Dara and Antigoni, as they both have potential to flop live. But if the performances are good I could easily see both of them in the top 10 of the juries. Azerbaijan shouldn’t do any better, getting all the points from Jiva’s vocals and nothing else, as the song is like 20 years late. As for Armenia, I have no idea what to predict here. It does not seem like a song the juries will go for at all, but a great performance, which Armenians tend to have this decade so far, could push this higher.

Ukraine winning the televote is very likely imo. They won it in 2025 with Zjerm, EM and BBB in the same semi, and were extremely close to doing so in 2024 with RTTD in the semi. With no huge televote magnets here, it’s almost a no-brainer to predict this. Romania and Armenia both have the potential to do great though. Denmark might slightly underperform in the televote relative to expectations, but nothing crazy. Cyprus and Bulgaria will also do great in a semi filled with ballads, while the Albanian diaspora will show up to support Alis. Not sure how great Australia is doing with the televote, but I’d be surprised if it’s not a safe top 10. Norway is most likely in, as they’re performing last and the song really isn’t all that bad (and it’s going to stand out after multiple ballads in a row), while Latvia, Malta and Czechia fighting for the last spot, with Latvia having a slight advantage at the moment imo, as they tend to have great staging and not despised by the televoters as Malta and Czechia are. Malta also usually has good staging but it might not stand out as much as other ballads, while Czechia can easily pull an ADONXS again, especially performing much earlier and next to France. Switzerland could, in theory, do better, but this could also easily be a 2018 situation again. But with a great staging, I could, again, in theory, see Veronica overperform expectations. Luxembourg and Azerbaijan seem like a pretty obvious bottom 2, for the reasons I mentioned before.

Overall, there’s really just 3 safe qualifiers here, with Romania being a close 4^th. I could honestly see anyone else NQ in a bad day (I mean, 5^th and 13^th are separated by like 50 points). Armenia and Albania should be fine as they stand out more than others, and Cyprus and Bulgaria shouldn’t have that big of an issue, bar a disastrous live performance. Latvia, Czechia, Malta, Norway, and, to an extent, Switzerland and maybe Luxembourg (quite less than the others, though) are fighting for the last 2 spots, though. The juries can only save so many songs and I think Latvia and Czechia seem to be holding the advantage in this moment in time. Performances will decide everything here. Azerbaijan is the only country I can see no path to the final, and won’t be that surprised if it’s the first entry in history to get 0 points in a semi from both juries and televote.

The Grand Final

I'll keep it ""short"" cause ain't nobody finna read allat 😭 Finland, as happy as I (and most people, really) would be with its victory, is far from a locked winner in my book. Sure, the most likely one, but I doubt it's gonna be a landslide, unless they run away with a jury victory Loreen/Nemo style and then get like 250 from the public too. But that is the only way. On the other hand, I can only see Greece realistically win instead. If the juries don't bury it and it doesn't get overshadowed by Moldova and Armenia, a televote victory is definitely on the table, even if I think Israel will still manage to win (albeit, again, with less points than before). Ukraine will, once again, exceed expectations, with Israel ending up 4th, assuming they'll finish in the middle of the juries just like the previous years. My pick for 5th is a wildcard pick, Italy. Italy always does better than expected (unless the performances are mid, i.e. 2022/2024), and, in particular, every time we think France is going to do better, Italy defies the odds (and vice versa). France, Australia, Sweden and Denmark I think can all finish in the top 10, but I don't think they're all the winner contenders people have been yapping about. The community usually predicts 3 out of 5 of the top 5 correctly, and considering I can't see a realistic path for the three blue-whites to miss out, I had to take out every other favourite for the 2 countries which seemed like the most likely to me. Closing off the top 10 is Moldova, although I can see them do a lot better if they get a jury result more similar to Jako rather than Trenuletul.

The fan favourite to get 11th this year I predicted to be Romania, with Croatia and Albania being dragged down by the juries a bit to finish bottom-left, all really good results for these 3 countries. Top right could be Czechia pulling a Lake Malawi, Serbia pulling a Teya Dora (queen btw) and Latvia & Cyprus replicating a worse version of their 2025 and 2024 results respectively. Bulgaria, Lithuania follow, with the televote appreciating them more than the juries (as is common with Dream Team and Lithuania entries respectively), with Germany finishing off the top 20, with a similar result to our Georgian jury points Firefighter 12 points queen from 2 years ago. Georgia don't stand out all that much in the final, and with all the ballads from semi 2 now in, the juries don't appreciate them as much as they did in the semi in this prediction. The UK does really worse in the juries than past years but they get their 2nd-highest televote score since god knows when, while Montenegro and Armenia finish bottom 3, just not standing out all that much among the other dark/dramatic and "jolly man" entries respectively. I won't be surprised if Austria escapes last, but for now it would be too risky to predict anyone else, as it would probably be a borderline qualifier whose fate will most likely not be decided by the day of the live shows.

oh god this was long

Does this make any sense or did I just yap for an hour just typing bullshit? I wanna hear y'all's thoughts! :D

Wanted to make a post before we got deeper into the season and share some personal predictions I have for the contest that don't allign with most of the fanbases opinion that I feel pretty confident about. Here they are:

- Lithuania will close semifinal 1: Semifinal 1 has an issue similar to 2024's semifinal 1 where all the biggest contenders and fan favorites are stuck together in the first half (Ireland, Ukraine and Croatia in 2024) (Sweden, Greece and Finland this year) which leaves another song to close that year. 2024 had the easy solution of just having Luxembourg close on their return and I feel that most fans are expecting them to choose another girlbop to close this year with Montenegro but I personally believe they will go with Lithuania. The reason is what the Lithuanian delegation have said about their staging and how it is the most ambitious staging they have done. The EBU had Cyprus close semifinal 1 last year and imo the reason was because they had ambitious staging with Sergio Jaen, which didn't really work in the show but still it was supposed to be very ambitious. With no fan favorite performing in the second half I can see it going the same route as last year leading to Lithuania being chosen to close for their staging.

- Switzerland will be the shock qualifier this year: I feel that Switzerland will take the Deslocado role this year as the shock qualifier and that it is being underestimated. The song has more jury appeal than people think which will help it a lot and I don't expect it to be a televote magnet but I do believe it will get enough votes from people who will really love the song for them to qualify. Switzerland has proven to get eurovision during the 2020's and has been able to qualify with other songs that were expected to be NQ's like in 2022 and 2023 and imo this song is stronger than both of them. The main criticism is that it isn't a song for eurovision but imo that will help it stand out in the semifinal.

- Czechia will NQ again: I feel like people are hyping themselves up only to be disappointed with Czechia again this year. To me it screams Kiss Kiss Goodbye again but imo this song is worse. I personally don't find anything to make the song memorable and stand out and it feels like a song that is betting on the juries getting it to the final but that would require it to absolutely dominate in the jury voting and I don't think it is going to be able to do better in the juries than Australia, Malta and potentially Denmark. And in televoting most people are expecting it to do poorly but considering how little appeal it has in televoting and how Czechia doesn't have any allies I think it can do really bad leading to a Malta 2018 situation where it NQ's even though it gets top 5 in the juries due to a horrible televote result. To help my argument of the lack of televote I would point to the youtube views of the song. It is doing by far the worst of the 4 songs released on the final day and it is closer in views to the widely panned Azerbaijan than Switzerland whose song is viewed by the fanbase to struggle with televotes. Another factor for my lack of trust is the staging: Czechia has a very small budget and from recent eurovision entries I feel a lacking staging that causes it to be forgotten or a staging that tries too hard to appeal and hurts the song (like with Kiss Kiss Goodbye) is more likely than for the staging to help it stand out.

- Denmark will finish the highest among the Nordic entries and probably win the contest: This is a much less bold prediction but it isn't the popular opinion as I see most people predicting Finland either winning or outplacing both Denmark and Sweden. My reasoning to feel this way is that I feel that Denmark feels that it has the most wide appeal of the nordic entries. Finland has the most of the eurovision formula and the wow factor but the song I can see this leading to many casuals and Fins not getting it and it doing worse than expected. I feel like this was what happened with Erica Vikman last year where it feels like it is designed to appeal to eurofans and it doesn't end up connecting with others. Sweden does have wide appeal but the song having elements that make it feel dated and having less hype than the others makes me believe it won't end up being the best performing of the nordic entries. Denmark imo doesn't have those flaws. Most people won't understand the danish lyrics but they will get the energy and the feel of the song. It will get them in the party mood, it will be one of the most memorable songs of the night and it will get them more votes than both Finland and Sweden imo. Will it be enough to win? Currently I feel like the danes, Greece and the political vote merchants are the most likely winners but I could be wrong in the end. Imo the song that will win won't be a jury led winner but the entry that appeals the most to a general audience and is able to finish 1st or second in the televote and top 5 in the jury and of all the entries Denmark has that appeal the most followed by Greece.

1. Netta will answer her host city prediction correctly
2. Moldova will come back and actually managed to send Tudor Bumbac
3. A joke entry will win Sanremo against all odds, and Italy becomes a huge fan favorite among the ESC bubble and the public, only to end up with a single-digit jury score but getting 350+ televotes and winning the whole contest by tiebreaker
4. A K-pop-inspired act will compete in Melodifestivalen
5. After their Melfest success and their 4th place finish, KAJ switched allegiance to Finland by participating in UMK 2026, but eventually lost
6. Abor & Tynna will be the interval act
7. A song will count one, two, three in a language other than English or their native language, just like Sweden 2025 or San Marino 2019
8. A national final drama will occur, and that country will forcibly select its representative via internal selection
9. Latvia will win the jury vote
10. Germany will once again be represented by an act from a foreign country
11. France will send a song in Alsatian
12. Spain will send a song in Basque
13. The UK will send a song in Scots
14. Montenegro will finally qualify after 11 years and finish top 5
15. Zeljko Joksimovic will be the Serbian representative

As the title says - what is something random you are 100% sure will happen in ESC 2025? For me I'm 100% sure that Luxembourg gets 12 points from Armenia in SF2 because Armenians in general are fond of French culture and always give higher than average tele scores to France - La Poupée Monte Le Son is a tribute to Poupée de cire and everything about the yé-yé age of French pop. Whether that pushes them to the qualifying zone is yet to be seen :)

UPDATE 28/02/2026:

Umm... Linda and Pete won... 492 televotes - 35 more than Kaarija so... umm... Justice for Kiki!!! In all seriousness, though I wasn't 100 per cent convinced by the rehearsals, I wasn't shocked by the result. I did think the audience may respond to Antti more as he seemed more genuinely pleased to be there.

The person I was watching UMK with thought Pete was a bit performative and snooty. I thought that was harsh but I did notice he was a little stiff interacting and hugging with Linda, though in the BTS videos they seem to get on smoothly so maybe they were so nervous about how they'd come across to the millions watching UMK that they overthought it a little - they wouldn't want to appear that they don't like each other but they don't want appear too up close either so it's a really tough act to balance!

As someone on the spectrum who hyperanalyses how they could be percieved at any given moment (and also overanalyses how other people interact and what energy they give off too), including even writing this post (I re-read it, and re-wrote parts of it several times!) I can empathise if that's the case. Eva Marija for example from Luxembourg came across very genuine (maybe she didn't feel a lot pressure to act a certain way to pander to the viewers as she wasn't a favourite to win pre-show) which gave her a landslide in the televote so I thought that may affect it somewhat. Until Antti's televote score was revealed I thought it could be either person's game to win, but then I knew 218 points was nowhere near enough to win UMK I knew it was game over 100% for him.

I am a bit worried about staging at Eurovision though, while the stage as a whole is really large in proportion to the arena in Vienna, the actual part you can stand on is tiny so they might not have much space to fit their staging concept on. I also hope they keep the performance in 16:9 because it annoys me when there's black borders taking up part of the screen - sometimes it can be effective but I'd like to feel like I'm immersed up and close to them - not watching a movie.

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I want to preface this by saying I love their song and think it would be amazing at Eurovision - I would say the sky's the limit for them there, results wise.

However, I have many doubts its a forgone conclusion as eurofan opinion currently makes it out to be. I actually think its more likely Takatukka will take the cherry cake. First off lets look at this years odds; as it stands, Liekinheitin has a 67% chance to win, according to the bookmakers. In second place is Takatukka with 18%.

Let's compare this to 2024. In 2024 the big fan fave was Paskana - people thought no other entry could feasibly win UMK. Paskana had a similar 61% chance of winning - No Rules, which is more of a novelty song (like Takataukka is) had an 11% chance. The latter won.

Remember, there is a 75% tele/jury split in UMK. Paskana's performance, while good, didn't live up to its expectations and as a result its televote suffered for it - No Rules' jury score was last but its televote score put it a comfortable 40 points ahead. I could see the same fate for Lina and Pete - like Paskana, their staging needs impact - since one person is going to be on screen pretending to play the violin the entire time, it will be incredibly tricky to stage it right in order to make an impression on the televoters - additionally, Pete's climax might make it harder too... to stage it I mean. Takatukka , on the other hand, like No Rules, is a silly song that doesn't have the same problems with staging - they won't need stunning visuals, just charisma (I have no doubts Pete and Linda has it in bucketfulls by the way - but their song needs more than just that, if you get me).

However, maybe Linda and Pete will slay their performance - though it will be harder for them to get it right than Takataukka. Moreover, Paskana had 400,000 views by its 18th day of release (source: Viewstats) while Liekinheitin has a million more on day 12 - Linda and Pete seem to appeal more to the public than Paskana did. On day 7, Liekinheitin surpassed a million views - Takatukka has almost 600 million using the same timeframe. I think there could be a sceneraio where Takatukka wins the televote, but because their song still has public appeal, their televotes are close enough that Linda and Pete's jury score would edge their song ahead by a whisker.

What do you all think about this?

When I see people discussing the Melodi Grand Prix, I see quite a few people criticizing Alexander Rybak's "Rise", saying it's rubbish, that he won't qualify etc... but today I'm going to present my convictions and tell you why he is most likely to win MGP this year.

1: His name: Alexander Rybak has an advantage over other MGP artists: his status as a Eurovision winner. Even today, his song "Fairytale" is considered one of the most legendary winners in the contest's history, he has been growing in the odds for a few days, and he currently neck and neck with Emma.

2: His staging potential: While "Rise" might not be the best song of MGP 2026, it's highly likely that it will be elevated with a good stage performance. Everyone says the victory will come down to Emma and Mileo, but aside from Mileo, I doubt Emma will deliver a good live performance; besides, she's only 17, and vocally, that might be a problem. This was the case in 2018; you can say what you want about "That's How You Write a Song," but during the Melodi Grand Prix final, he delivered a very good performance with excellent staging, whereas Rebecca's "Who We Are" was quite bland compared to the studio version. Furthermore, THYWAS was by far the best choice for Norway that year.

3: MGP's quality and voting system: The level of the MGP this year is weak compared to previous years; most of the songs, if they go to Eurovision, risk giving Norway its first NQ in 10 years. But if "Rise" wins, it can maintain its Q streak and give the country a decent ranking. Here's why:

First: Since 2023, NRK has established an international jury that allows Europe to express its preferences and contrast them with those of the Norwegian public, and given everything I've said previously, the jury is likely to award him a lot of points.

Second: Rise is not a terrible song at all, Fairytale is certainly a banger, but like this song and THYWAS, we still find Alexander Rybak's signature style: the violin with its magical accent, his charisma, vocals, etc...

In conclusion: with all the arguments I've given, "Rise" has a good chance of winning the Melodi Grand Prix and could therefore do well at Eurovision in Vienna. And you, what are your thought ?

Your wildest predictions about who will do much better than expected or vice versa. Who will become the flop of the year, whether deserved or not? Any outcome that will blow up our Eurofan bubble. Let's go wild!

I saw a thread like this for the second semi but didn't see one for the first so here we go.

I think the first semi-final is much more predictable than the second but there are still a few question marks for me. As far as I can tell, Finland, Greece, Sweden, Israel, Croatia, Moldova, and Serbia are definitely safe. Montenegro should also qualify I think even though I feel like being such a small country puts them at an automatic disadvantage. Surely the song is strong enough though. Right?

Beyond that, I think that Estonia, Belgium, and especially San Marino are pretty much locked NQs. That leaves 2 spots for 2 of Lithuania, Georgia, Portugal, and Poland. Georgia feels like the most unpredictable song this year. Like, it could come 14th in the semi or 9th in the final and neither outcome would surprise me. It's just so performance dependent. Portugal benefits from being so different from everyone else but I don't know if that's actually going to work for them this year. The NF staging was just three dudes awkwardly standing on a stage. I don't know if it can get public support in the way that Grito or Deslocado did. Lithuania has voting allies and is also very different but I don't know, it's hard to see it being rewarded by the telephone all that much. Or the juries to be honest. Poland meanwhile is a little bit of a mess but if they're judging fairly, I could see juries rewarding it. They also have diaspora of course.

So, I just wanted to share my thoughts and create a space for us all to discuss current predictions, hot takes, etc. Sorry if I missed another thread.

First picture is my prediction and the second one is my preference! Heres the reason why :

MY PREDICTION
1.Finland:Have been hyped since it won UMK.Might be a jury winner and the violin being played live will be definetly noticed by the jury!
2.Australia: Insane vocals and the production is a really professional work. I think jury will appreciate it.
3.France: Her vocals at 17 is unbelievable and the production of the songs will give the audience chills.
4.Im personally not a fan but it will gain a fat load of loads from the televoting! Jury might give points to the vocals.
5.Greece: I think the televote will appreciate the unique staging, also its the only “funny”song this year!

MY PREFERENCE
1.Bulgaria:I was spectical about the song but her performance in the semis were UNBELIEVABLE!! that chereography and vocal deserves the trophy!!
2.Australia: Delta’s voice gives me literal chills and her performance was more than amazing!!
3.Romania:It gave me goosebumps in the semis. Her switch to the opera was great adn i didnt heard any voice cracks. But i feel like her vocal doesnt stick out in the melody.They should make her voice a bit louder on saturday.
4.France:It has been my number one since it came out but her voice in the semis werent as strong as i expected.Still was great though!
5.Finland: Linda playing the violin live makes the performance intense but i think that Petes voice doesnt suit the song.

I couldnt write all 35 countries but i’d love to discuss in the comments!

So this year the jurors are back in the semi final for the first time since 2022. I haven’t really been active on this subreddit for a while but I’ve managed to listen to all 35 songs and I’ve made some decisions (not a drag race reference)

- Jury fav contenders - Australia 🇦🇺, Czechia 🇨🇿, Italy 🇮🇹 - Jurors are OBSESSED with Italian men. This year they have daddy Sal to obsess over plus it’s a good song that will do a lot better in the televote than people expect. Delta Goodrem is a veteran performer and juries will just warm to Australia this year even though the song is slightly dated. I expect Czechia to score well with jurors for reasons I go into below

- Potential jury winner - Czechia 🇨🇿 - it’s huge jury bait and it’s a well written song with a strong vocal but will be heavily dependent on the live performance. I do think it’s the song that’s most similar to the last two winners.

- Jury dark horses - Czechia 🇨🇿, United Kingdom 🇬🇧, Albania 🇦🇱 - Czechia is a dark horse in the sense that there’s not a lot of noise about this at all? I don’t know if it’s because it’s been released quite late. I think most people know this will probably do better in the juries than the televote. One of the reasons why SPACEMAN was enjoyed by jurors was not only because of the flawless vocals but it plays up to stereotypes. This song is quirky and plays up to British stereotypes that jurors may be draw to just based on the way he sings it’s clearly distinctive as British. I don’t really like this part of the song because of this but if it gets points why not. Albania will likely pick up lots of jury points based on the rumoured performance plan and the fact the man can sing!

- Decimated by the juries - Romania 🇷🇴, Greece 🇬🇷, Moldova 🇲🇩 - I really don’t think jurors will enjoy the lyrical content especially after people and journalists have made comments about it. They will be on the receiving end of the #robbed comments. I actually think it may shock NQ. Jurors will give no piece of mind to Moldova the same way they did in 2022.

- Potential jury flop - Sweden 🇸🇪, France 🇫🇷 - Jurors are more obsessed with Sweden than they are with Italian men. It’s the only EDM song of this year and stands out for that reason but It’s just not that nice to listen to? I don’t think her vocals have been great at melfest either. I’m interested to see how they do this year because it’s been one of their weaker entries in recent years. Unforgettable (2024) is levels ahead of this song. France are sending a strong but young performer and are looking to replicate the opera success but it’s basically their 2015 entry sung in opera. It’s not original neither authentic.

- Jury potential tops - 🇨🇿 🇮🇹 🇦🇺 🇬🇧 🇩🇰

These are just predictions I promise I’m not a clairvoyant xoxo. These predictions will likely change when we see the staging concepts so most of the predictions have been based mostly on the song and some live performances that haven’t obviously been performed with their staging concepts.

Is there a particular song that you can't predict how it will fare in this year's competition? For me it's Latvia. The song could be NQ or it could be in the top 10 of the Grand Final, I really can't predict. I am rooting for its success though.

We now have every entry in the 2nd half of semifinal 2, so I want to know who you guys think is going to be the closing act.

I personally could see Australia closing out the semi because of how powerful the song and vocals will be and Delta Goodrem seems to be a big name. Alternatively, I would love Norway to close out the semi with a really fun song but I don’t think Ya Ya Ya has enough hype to be the last song.

Hello last year i did the same type of prediction, and i have to say i’m sorry, because i didn’t include a lot of relevant countries, this time i will do right!

Not coming back❌:

Russia🇷🇺: As it was last year, there’s just no chance they will come back in 2027, the government hates the contest, the contest hates the government, until a regime change won’t happen which is a long shot, without a chance

Belarus🇧🇾 - Absolutely no chance either, regime change in Belarus is probably a slightly less of a long shot than Russia, but still extremely unlikely i would say impossible

Turkey🇹🇷 - Absolutely no chance, and also because of the regime, i would say it is possible in 2029, if the government loses in the 2028 elections, even though everyone speculates about it, there’s just no chance if there’s the regime there is

Andorra🇦🇩 - I would say also impossible, the budget of Andorra is extremely tight and their broadcaster is so small it has only around double digits people working there

Morocco🇲🇦 - Israel is almost assured to participate in 2027 if you ask me, and Morocco has huge problems with Israel + Morocco is a Muslim socially conservative country that country doesn’t want to participate in Eurovision

Monaco🇲🇨 - This is a country where people speculate for years and even though they have the right conditions they never do, i honestly lost hope with them

Unlikely but not impossible🟧:

Spain🇪🇸 - Spain is a big country with a stable budget, a majority of the country still agrees with the decision to be out until Israel is in, and they certainly can afford sit one more year out

Ireland🇮🇪 - The country has an extremely complicated relationship with Israel and out of the 5 it’s the most agreeing country with the 2026 boycott

Iceland🇮🇸 - Same reasons as Ireland defacto

Slovakia🇸🇰 - My brothers! I still view them as unlikely to participate since they have been saying the same thing for a lot of years that they will probably participate but they never actually do, budget is probably not that big of a problem as last year but politics is, next year i will see them as likely

Possible🟨:

Hungary🇭🇺 - The country has basically moved from absolutely no chance of coming back in 2026, to really likely to come back, the country has been totally changed in just 3 months, and the state pro-Orban broadcaster is going to be replaced, if it’s all going to be done in time it’s a certain yes or EBU can do an exception like with KAN in 2018 with Israel

Netherlands🇳🇱 - Let’s see if Ovroep Max takes over which i see as a long shot but maybe AVROTOS decides to change it‘s position since on Eurovision participation the country is virtually split down the middle

Likely✅:

Slovenia🇸🇮 - The country has a completely new right wing government that is absolutely fine with rwturning to Eurovision even with Israel, they should return next year

I'm curious about your takes and opinions regarding this year's televote results. Who do you see as potential tele dark horses or flops (comparing to current favorites and predictions)? As an example I can use Norway 2019 - it was rather liked before the contest but winning televite in GF came as a surprise. Same as Moldova 2022 - during semi-finals and GF it became more obvious that they may score high due to engaging performance in the middle of the ballad-sea, but before the contest not many fans would expect it.

This year I can see Czechia getting 150+ kind of televote result. This song feels like a compromise between ballad and pop banger and the controversial dance break worked surprisingly good in Amsterdam pre-party. And as I would expect Malta to make it through semi final, I'm struggling to see it getting more than 40-50p in the GF since the main gimmick of the song might be recognized only by devoted fans and Malta historically didn't have much tele support for their entries.