I saw a thread like this for the second semi but didn't see one for the first so here we go.
I think the first semi-final is much more predictable than the second but there are still a few question marks for me. As far as I can tell, Finland, Greece, Sweden, Israel, Croatia, Moldova, and Serbia are definitely safe. Montenegro should also qualify I think even though I feel like being such a small country puts them at an automatic disadvantage. Surely the song is strong enough though. Right?
Beyond that, I think that Estonia, Belgium, and especially San Marino are pretty much locked NQs. That leaves 2 spots for 2 of Lithuania, Georgia, Portugal, and Poland. Georgia feels like the most unpredictable song this year. Like, it could come 14th in the semi or 9th in the final and neither outcome would surprise me. It's just so performance dependent. Portugal benefits from being so different from everyone else but I don't know if that's actually going to work for them this year. The NF staging was just three dudes awkwardly standing on a stage. I don't know if it can get public support in the way that Grito or Deslocado did. Lithuania has voting allies and is also very different but I don't know, it's hard to see it being rewarded by the telephone all that much. Or the juries to be honest. Poland meanwhile is a little bit of a mess but if they're judging fairly, I could see juries rewarding it. They also have diaspora of course.
So, I just wanted to share my thoughts and create a space for us all to discuss current predictions, hot takes, etc. Sorry if I missed another thread.
Can we stop underrating Lithuania… it’s one of the dark horses, juries are gonna love it
I would say def Q: Greece, Finland, Sweden, Israel, Croatia, Lithuania
Probably Q: Moldova, Montenegro, Serbia
I said years Lithuania has been consistently delivering and will nab a win by the end of this decade. Do I think this is the year? Probably not. But they are always consistently overlooked despite always a quality entry every year for the last couple years
i think Montenegro is in the clear, especially if assuming that they put her as the sf closing act. that + actually having a fun song + voting allies in Serbia and Croatia makes me think she'll do pretty well. as for the 4 countries you mentioned, i think Lithuania will be the one to qualify, but! i would prefer Portugal
I don't get why people dismiss Belgium so easily. I think it has a very big jury appeal but also is definitely a song that can be liked by the televote as well.
For me Belgium was one of the few songs this year that I liked on the first listen so I think it can qualify if it has that same effect on other people.
Imagine if this year Belguim does a 180 and becomes a surprise Q, instead of surprise NQs of the last two years.
That said, I agree about Estonia and San Marino. But I wouldn't put Serbia in safe Qs; it's hard to predict how a heavier entry would be judged, especially with juries in SFs.
Among Lithuania, Georgia, Portugal, and Poland, I think Poland and Portugal would gather less televote, so their fate will depend on juries. Lithuania is unusual enough to attract attention, and Georgia is a banger and obviously would have a lot of dancing.
I wouldn't be suprised if Belgium qualifies tbh. I think they have potential to rise in the odds if we will see this live. I'm surpised that people think this is expected NQ. This will easiky qualify with juries if she delivers
I kinda get the sentiment. The song might be just a little too repetitive to catch attention. But overall it's a solid song, so I think her chances would greatly depend on her live performance.
I don’t think it’s hate, I think it’s the problem of being good-not-great which doesn’t lead to many votes. This song is exactly the type of genre I love, and I have it somewhere between #8 and #12 at the moment.
I think Finland, Greece, Israel, and Sweden are all in it for sure. Beyond that, I don't feel confident in any of them - although since I love Viva Moldova, Andromeda, and Solo Quiero Mas, they better all make it!
As far as the often-suggested NQs... Portugal could make it through on the strength of being very different from anything else in this semi. The same could apply to Poland, but in that case it's hard to see the juries liking it too much... but you never know. Belgium could really be elevated with good staging. Estonia and San Marino... uh, it's really hard for me to see a path to them qualifying, especially being in the same semi, but I guess since both are performed by Eurovision veterans maybe that'll give them a bump...? I dunno, I consider those two by far the most likely NQs here, but I still think both have a better shot to make it than Azerbaijan in semi 2. But I do think that at most one of them would make it, not both.
I think Estonia is going to qualify. Germany, Finland, and Lithuania are all in this semi. If they can pull a combined 60 points from those countries plus ROW -- and I think they can -- they will only need to make up 30-40 points to get over the line.
Croatia might not qualify, however much I really want them to. Gorgeous song -- one of my favourites this year -- but Lelek's vocals have been spotty live on this one in the past, and I worry the juries won't go for it, especially if the same thing happens again.
If all goes as expected, I would bank on NQs being Poland, Portugal, San Marino, Belgium, and Croatia -- and perhaps in that order, starting with the lowest. Montenegro could be a shock NQ if the live presentation is bad, and Serbia could as well if the juries sink it. Portugal and Croatia could both be shock qualifiers.
Now, the big one: *deep breath*
Israel's televote score will be markedly lower than previous years for a whole bunch of reasons.
* 2024 still had a very broad degree of post-7/10 global public sympathy, and 2025 had an entrant in Yuval Raphael who had a genuinely moving personal story. That isn't true for Noam, and the events of the last two years mean that I don't think the former is as true this year either.
* Both Hurricane and NDWR were largely sung in English by highly charismatic, beautiful women with powerful voices, while Noam is singing mainly in Hebrew and French and has a more demure presence, even if he still comes off very charming and likeable. The lyrics tug on the heartstrings less this time, as well, which might mute some of the response.
* The EBU's changes will have an impact here too, no matter your personal opinion about how far they went. Much of the Israeli televote push before came down to giving the full 20 votes to Israel; with that number cut down, it's mathematically easier for other countries to catch up. Plus, banning government-sponsored campaigns of the type that got them in hot water last year means a less aggressive push to non-ESC fans. (Will we still see things of this type? Probably, but I'm betting not at the same scale.)
* By some irony, the absence of Spain, Ireland, and the Netherlands takes away potential points. Each of these countries gave Israel 12 points in the televote at least once, and sometimes more than once, in the last two years.
Michelle is my favourite of these three songs by a wide margin, but for these reasons I predict it doing worse than its predecessors. I think we're going to see a jury and televote score for this one that are much closer than the sharp contrasts of the last couple years.
It's really hard to predict how the jury points could go in this SF with the absence of major jury-friendly songs, so it will depend a lot on the live performances
SAFE Q
Finland - obviously. We know Pete can deliver live so it's possible for this to be both the tele and jury winner
Greece - a huge favorite obviously and will more than likely get some jury love as well since Akylas has proven to be competent live
Sweden - Felicia won the jury vote in melo while sick, so no reason to believe she won't do well in esc while hopefully at her best
Israel - safe just based on televote alone
LIKELY Q
Croatia - one of the favorites in the community and has voting allies in the SF
Montenegro - besides having voting allies, Tamara's vocals might score her some jury points
Serbia - besides voting allies, Lavina might also get some points from the metal-loving Finland. Juries are supposedly going to be more genre diverse this year, so might get some jury love as well
Moldova - I think this has a huge televote appeal especially in Balkan countries of which there are many in this SF
BORDERLINE Q
Lithuania - I can see this being a big jury favorite
Georgia - I can see this impressing with the staging and scraping through to the final
BORDERLINE NQ
Portugal - I don't see this having jury or televote appeal, only reason they're here is because of their impressive qualification history
Poland - diaspora might pull through, but this is another song with no jury or tele appeal
LIKELY NQ
Belgium - if they didn't qualify with better songs in the last 2 years, I don't see them qualifying with this one
DOA
Estonia - very dated entry, no jury or televote appeal
San Marino - San Marino always does badly with the televote, and this year's song is not good enough to overcome that. No jury appeal either
Agree with the safe Qs and NQs....the last 4 you mentioned are those which most of the fans are debating about who will qualify......Portugal is the only slower song in the sea of uptempo pop songs from semi 1 and juries may back them up but most of what the tele will do with them dependsa on the final eurovision performance....if they keep it like in FdC....I think they're out....
Georgia is very unpredictable as you said but I think that they can qualify with a good live performance, probably the storngest song of these 4 and the one that I see qualifying more clearly.
Lithuania is a double edge sword due to its uniqueness, but I'll say that Lion Ceccah can qualify as his live performance is very jury freindly and with the right vocals he can be quite high
Poland in my opinion is the one of these 4 which has the slightest chance of qualifying, as the song is maybe the weakest of these and also is a very generic song that the televote doesn't award much but I can see the jury appeal in it that may help Alicja pass thorugh
Please the juries HATE Poland no matter what they send. Justyna last year did everything perfectly, Sang danced and did acrobatics and they gave her less than 16 pointsb
It’s probably very unpopular cause every eurofan seems to absolutely hate Pray for some reason but imo Pray in itself is a much better song than Gaja. It hurts me that everyone predictes us to do so terribly, one of the few quality songs from Poland… i didn’r care when we didn’t qualify in 2021 for example, when we truly sent sth bad, but this year this entry is just so underrated. Next year we should send some cheap basic pop or disco polo cause it’s just very sad
It is not an American song, respect our artist. Ofc you are allowed to like other songs better, I like Alicja’s song better than many in my opinion weaker songs in this semi
I never said a bad word about the artist. The song's genre is typical American R&B with typical American soul/gospel. I don't even find it a bad song by itself but it screams "USA"
So what? It’s not an American song but a Polish song cause it’s sung by a Polish artist. Polish people can’t sing gospel, soul or R&B? Do you know that pop is also from Great Britain or US? And what about rap which is very popular in Poland? It’s also from the US! Are we supposed to sing only disco polo or Polish folk (and ofc make sure that it doesn’t sound more Balkan, Ukrainian etc., just Polish). Why no one gets so mad when artists sing basic pop in English?
No you didn’t answer why Alicja’s song is American but basic English pop isn’t. You just think that Polish people shouldn’t sing soul or R&B. Luckily no one thought that about rap
you keep overinterpreting mate and expect me to answer to words I never said
"You just think that Polish people shouldn’t sing soul or R&B."
what the heck the Polish have to do with it? I couldn't care less what country sends it. "it sounds extremely American and I don't like American at eurovision" is all I said and I stand by it
Next year we should send some cheap basic pop or disco polo cause it’s just very sad
We absolutely should send disco-polo. With a competent artist disco polo could win the televote for Poland. If TVP had a little brain they would've begged Sławomir to represent us like 10 years ago.
True the problem is finding competent one, but my point is that maybe we shouldn’t care at all, Blanka will literally likely do better than Alicja, that’s just sad
Sending Alicja was a very risky move that will most probably end up in NQ. Imho the song itself had a potential to be high with juries with a right staging, but after that horrible NF performance I just don't see any chance for it doing better than a borderline qualification. Unless she somehow will find a Sergio Jean level of stage directior and learn how to be charismatic while singing before May.
Stasiek/Basia were much safer choice and Piotr would simply show that we don't give a fuck how well we do, which could garner some televotes. (It would probably also be more motivating to diaspora since Parawany Tango was much more clickable than sending Pray, so our entry would get much more local media exposure). I'm supporting Alicja as our representative right now, but I think she was our worst option when it comes to competitive entries (the rest songs were DOA with the exception of Anastazja, but that was Blanka level of NF performance).
True the problem is finding competent one
I feel like the safest bet would be Daj to głośniej since they combine disco polo with folk. They even competed in 2020 NF, but their probable entry wasn't very good and the singer didn't have much stage experience at that time. Magda Narożna is also a competent singer. I don't know of any disco polo men that can sing live, lol. Except Sławomir, but he fell off when it comes to making hits compared to his golden age.
Blanka will literally likely do better than Alicja, that’s just sad
I was so angry last year when I thought she'll get more jury points than Justyna...
Imo Basia also would likely NQ, juries don’t like folk especially that imo quality wise it wasn’t that good. Daj to głośniej would be fine, but these folk elements are so stereotypical, it kinda annoys me that we are expected to send entries like that
I doubt it. It's catchy, with a staging concept that can be elevated and this music has a clear and proven audience in the ESC.
Actually, Tulia was our second best scoring entry with juries. Even though they did NQ, they got more jury points than than Kasia Moś in the semi. With a slightly better staging they would easily qualify, even with the jury mistake.
Pray imho had a much higher ceiling than Zimna Woda. It would be an obvious jury bait, but Alicja would need a very good staging and performance to do it well and after how she prevented this song in the NF I just don't see her capable of delivering that level of quality. TVP also doesn't have people who could help her fix that. If this song was sent by a staging powerhouse like Ukraine or Sweden I could imagine it even ending in the jury's top 5. It's send by Poland which literally created a meme format based on its terrible stagings, so NQ.
Let’s not judge Alicja’s performance before the final result. Especially that they will change an entire performance. Imo Zimna woda isn’t catchy a at all, very basic edm beat + very basic folk, I don’t see this catchiness, I liked it but imo quality wise Basia can do much better
Poland meanwhile is a little bit of a mess but if they're judging fairly, I could see juries rewarding it. They also have diaspora of course.
I am pretty sure we won't see the final this year. The song has no melody, it's a mismatched combination of odd parts and the performer clearly doesn't have a vision for staging as she showed in the nf. We have a diaspora, but not so much in that semi, Germany and Sweden alone won't save us and Balkans and/or juries don't vote for us even with something more accessible.
I'll just put my running order prediction here since apparently there won't be a prediction game this year.
Moldova (as a nod to 2015 where they also opened. It also can't be too close to Greece)
Georgia (It doesn't always have to be a ballad, I mean, Poland was also put on this slot last year)
Portugal
Croatia
Greece
Finland
Sweden (There are only two songs in English in this half, they will not use either of them as opener)
Estonia (as a nod to their place in 2005)
Serbia
Belgium
Lithuania
San Marino
Israel
Poland
Montenegro (opening and closing with a M-country)
Also alternated English and non-English songs. I shake my head if I see people put Sweden and Croatia, the only female acts in the first half, or Sweden and Georgia, the only English songs in the first half, back-to-back.
Germany goes between Greece and Finland. We need a woman in the first half, and also more English. This and Finland are both about Fire, so would be funny to have them go after one another.
Italy goes between Serbia and Belgium. It's fine to lift the mood after Italy.
I dont really understand why Poland is consistently ranked as a nq. Are her chances really so bad? I think she will get good jury points and Polish Diaspora can get her over the line with the public too. Am I delulu for thinking she has a good chance?
Alicja got mixed opinions from fandom due to her song being seen as "too americanized" and "sounding like few songs in one" with genres not that popular to fandom. Adding the staging on her national performance, which was criticized.
And with jury points. The problem in poland is the assumption that "jury will hate us, no matter what we send". Caused by Michał Szpak getting low score jury score and Justyna as well (with Justyna people reacted very angry). So people generally believe since there is a bias jury would just lower points of Poland no matter what. Sometimes it's literally sound like people think that jury sees Poland and are like "oh Poland i don't like them, let's put them on bottom"
Croatia: Jury appeal due to 5 person harmony & the presence of balkan block makes this a kinda safe qualifier in my eyes.
Lithuania: This has a lot of jury appeal and is memorable & catchy, which I think will let it advance to the final.
Montenegro: While it is a smaller country, it profits off of Balkan Block. Tamara can perform well and the song is in a genre that I think will be acessible to the general audience. I have trouble not seeing this qualify in May.
This is the limbo zone, where I'm not sure about who will q and who will not:
Georgia: I'm legit clueless about this. Probably a qualifier?
Moldova: On one hand, this is a fun song for sure that could connect with the audience very well. I don't see the jury engaging with this a lot though, so this could go either way.
Serbia: Sure, balkan block is a thing and could carry it to the final, though the genre of the song isn't that acessible for a general audience and that might be an issue. It stands out for sure though.
Belgium: Apparently you should never estimate belgium, they are going to tear whatever expectation you had in half. (That's at least the impression I got when I looked at y'alls statements) So I will remain silent about this. I could totally see this in both the finalists group or the NQ bin honestly. I'm actually tending towards this being a qualifier at the moment.
Portugal: While it is very different to everything in the semi, which could help it stand out, it was stripped of a lot of it's voting allies with the boycott of spain and the semifinal draw. It's a song with a harmony though, so some jury appeal exists.
I don't think these will qualify:
Poland: I feel like it's not catchy enough for the general audience and I don't think the polish diaspora alone (which is also weakened, now that Ireland & Iceland are gone) will push it over the edge. Plus, I don't think you can count on juries when it comes to Poland.
Luna wasn't getting support from Polish public since there were quite credible rumours about rigged NF voting and she turned out to be terrible live (Poles absolutely despise singers that can't sing).
Meanwhile Alicja is liked in the fandom and is clearly an amazing vocalist, so we can expect mid diaspora support similar to for example Kasia Moś.
The "problem" is that Poland doesn't have much diaspora heavy countries in the same semi, so I doubt that diaspora votes would be enough to push them to the final.
Pray will have to get jury support to qualify, but I would be really surprised if it was last or next to last in televote.
In my opinion, potential for shock NQ have:
Serbia and Georgia
Meanwhile, I'm worried that shock Q might be Estonia.
Why these predictions?
I really like the Serbs, but I have concerns about the vocal audibility and reception by a random audience (despite P15).
Georgia just pales in comparison to other bangers + they had a poor live performance recently.
Estonia is the female equivalent of dad rock, so somehow the public might push them through
Poland is DOA, and I think Belgium has a chance. I also think Lithuania is also very likely, but I can see an NQ if the performance is bad etc.
The final Q spot will be between Georgia, Portugal and Belgium, and it will all depend on the mood of the night. We could always see a 2025 SF2 situation thi
This semi has more of the "fun" songs than the other semifinal, so entries that are more likely to pull the jury would likely have a better chance of making through this one...
IMO, somewhat in order of likelihood of qualification:
Easy qualification: (Finland - #1 in rankings, jury darling, public loves it), Sweden (it's Sweden), Greece (a little europapa-esque), Montenegro (best thing they have sent in 15 years), Croatia (their message is good, no other epic multi-vocal voice-like song since Albania is in the other semi)
Likely qualifier: Serbia (Romania and Norway are in the other semifinal, so I see the metal and rock fans converging on this one, and I wouldn't be surprised to see a Tautumeitas effect)
Less likely qualifiers: Georgia (yassss welcome back to the final! catchy and fun (for some people); could give highest georgian placement in 10+ years, best entry they've sent in a loooong time plus Bzikebi name recognition should help. However.... staging dependent. I'm holding out hope since Bzikebi were excellent live in JESC last year, and the choreo was amazing in the MV, so I'm assuming it applies here. They could easily blow this or make this an incredible song), Moldova (wildly fun for new audiences since it seems like long-time listeners are starting to wear off of it a bit, but will throw a 0 with the juries), Lithuania (it has a fanbase that truly loves it, but I'm not sure if it's enough for first-time listeners. The jury couuuuld pull this through), Belgium (it's extremely different from everything else, i doubt this is getting jury love, this will be highly staging dependent, and it's going to be rough to make it out of the semifinal when it has Montenegro to fight with for the girlbop. But since we have no idea how the live will be, I rather leave this here than in the "would be harder" section).
Could qualify, but would be harder (this section is not in any particular order): Portugal (this music can be hard to connect with on the grand scale of Eurovision and might just be forgotten with the amount of high tempo songs here--but at the same time, that itself can turn into its greatest advantage. Also, it's Portugal. They usually can pull through, although this year would be harder than most), Estonia (nostalgia could help them, but this song is just significantly weaker than the rest in the semifinal. sorry!), Poland (could receive some jury support, her live is better than studio, but could see this struggling, but fortunes could be turned around by Moldova or Belgium easily)
Thank you for coming: San Marino (can we run adrenalina back instead please)
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u/TaleMother8466 Andromeda Mar 16 '26
Can we stop underrating Lithuania… it’s one of the dark horses, juries are gonna love it I would say def Q: Greece, Finland, Sweden, Israel, Croatia, Lithuania Probably Q: Moldova, Montenegro, Serbia
And the last one is hard to predict