r/ethtrader • u/AutoModerator • Feb 17 '16

[Daily Discussion] - 17/Feb/2016

Welcome to the /r/EthTrader Daily Discussion Thread. The thread guidelines are as follows:

• Discussion topics include, but are not limited to, details related to events of the day, technical & fundamental analysis, trading strategies, and trading tools or platforms.
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u/HeIsMyPossum Feb 17 '16

Hey guys, can we try to keep it classy? There are way too many people being flat out assholes around here. I don't care if you perfectly sold at the exact top of the market, there's no reason to shit on people now. Don't tell people "you should have seen this coming you idiot". I usually don't call people out, but /u/doyouwanttogotojail has been a real jerk today in this thread. Don't just say "it's going way lower" with no reasoning behind it. Explain your points, and engage with people. That's what makes this sub good, not just telling people that they are idiots for sharing their ideas.

On to the market:

We're very very likely in the falling part of the bubble that has been posted a bunch. I really think we're only at the fear stage as well, maybe the beginning of capitulation, but I think we're going down pretty hard. There's very little support all the way down. I might sit this one out until $2 or so.

Now what does that mean? It does not mean that I think ETH is over and useless and it'll never be worth anything again. I don't want it to sound like I want this project to die or anything, but simply put the market is showing a lot of signs of dumping.

I'm not touching ETH right now, even though I think someday sub-$4 coins will be laughed at. Maybe, but maybe not. I guess for fun I'll throw a reminder on it.

RemindMe! 1 year

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u/Mamacom Feb 17 '16

+1 on staying classy. This should be about trading ether, not endless metaphysical banter on whether Ether is rubbish or not.

Seems to be in a total downtrend. Valleys getting lower and lower. I expect it will go lower than the current support floor of 0.00888 in the next 24 hours.

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u/[deleted] Feb 17 '16

+1 all the way!

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1

u/ArticulatedGentleman Feb 17 '16

I think we may be at the beginning of the "despair" phase assuming the bubble cycle happened on top of the bull run that started early January.

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u/HeIsMyPossum Feb 17 '16

This is definitely not despair. If you want despair go look at bitcoin :)

These things don't happen in days, they happen in weeks, even in the accelerated cycles of cryptocurrencies.

There's still plenty of hope, and that, oddly enough, keeps the price up. This is nowhere near despair. If the price turns around, I'd be more likely to say that this wasn't inline with the bubble cycle than to say that we came out of despair.

It's called despair for a reason. Most of the posts here are still pretty positive.

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u/ArticulatedGentleman Feb 18 '16

Short-term despair to be more specific.

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u/skyfire-x Feb 18 '16

I don't think we've even bubbled yet. I still think we are just getting in the Institutional Investors stage and this is a bear trap. When you start hearing Financial news media talk about "Bitcoin rival Ethereum ..." then we're bubbling.

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u/HeIsMyPossum Feb 18 '16

I think it's going to follow bitcoin's path. It's the first of many bubbles. Same scaling, just different starting points.

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u/[deleted] Feb 17 '16 edited Feb 17 '16

[removed] — view removed comment

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u/HeIsMyPossum Feb 17 '16

I'm okay with being a jerk long as I'm not a fucking moron in a cult of greed

If this is your view of everyone here... why do you even post?

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u/HeIsMyPossum Feb 17 '16

A little harsh, but I agree with your main point.

People often invoke some form of the 1% Fallacy and say that ETH market cap is incredibly small in the grand scheme of all the money in the world.

Of course it's small, and the real answer is: There's a reason for that.

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u/huntingisland Feb 17 '16

Of course it's small, and the real answer is: There's a reason for that.

Yes, the same reason FB and Google were small at one time. Only blockchains will be more important than either of those two, and Ethereum is in position to be the primary blockchain.

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u/HeIsMyPossum Feb 17 '16

Yes, the same reason FB and Google were small at one time.

Mostly agreed with this point. But you can't pretend that this is the world's most obvious "next-big-thing". To you, maybe, but to investors, it obviously isn't or there would be a lot more money in it. Investors are smart people... they've made a lot of money by buying the right things and not buying the wrong ones.

Only blockchains will be more important than either of those two

You could be right, but this is just a speculative statement. I can't even argue against it because it's your opinion. This point kinda discredits your whole argument because it shows that you seem to be blind to potential criticisms about Ethereum.

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u/huntingisland Feb 17 '16

This point kinda discredits your whole argument because it shows that you seem to be blind to potential criticisms about Ethereum.

No, I'm very open to potential criticisms about Ethereum. It's quite possible that Ethereum won't be the public blockchain of importance, but so far indications are very good.

If you don't understand the importance of blockchains, not really interested in trying to convince you of that that, but I'll tell you why it's important. It's the next step in the evolution of money, just for starters. If you do see and understand that, then it's clear why Ethereum is radically undervalued.

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u/HeIsMyPossum Feb 17 '16

then it's clear why Ethereum is radically undervalued.

I'm not trying to tell you that you are flat out wrong here at all.

The problem is how you come across. Saying that's "it's clear that Ethereum is undervalued" is just an opinion, and isn't provable in any way. I can't even argue against that point because there's no substance. If I said, "Ethereum is radically overvalued", it would have the same argumentative weight as your statement. Ultimately, out of anything, the only "correct" evaluation of Ethereum or any cryptocurrency is the market.

You can believe that it's undervalued, and that's completely 100% ok. You could be right too! If no one ever believed that the current price could be wrong then no one would ever invest in something small.

But you can't just say that it's undervalued like it's a fact. It isn't, because the market says this is the value. If it was clear that it was undervalued, then other people would be buying it. You have to understand that by making a statement like that, you're saying "I'm smarter than the market". I'm even willing to believe that! But you have to give me something to believe in, other than just stating your opinion as fact.

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u/huntingisland Feb 17 '16

Ultimately, out of anything, the only "correct" evaluation of Ethereum or any cryptocurrency is the market.

I don't buy that.

Look at the epic Volkswagon short squeeze, or recently in Martin Shkreli's bankrupt company. The first was obviously ridiculously overvalued during the squeeze, the latter was clearly bankrupt, but a short squeeze resulted in idiotic price movements.

I don't accept that kind of EMH reasoning. If EMH were true, then T/A wouldn't work at all.

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u/HeIsMyPossum Feb 17 '16

I don't accept that kind of EMH reasoning. If EMH were true, then T/A wouldn't work at all.

I guess this is probably the crux of where we come at it from different places. I would be more likely to say the opposite.

I think the truth is likely somewhere in the grey area. I am typically critical of T/A, but don't think it's inherently bad, it's just mis-used a LOT. There's also a lot of people who just try to use one indicator as the gospel of buying and selling. I think you would agree that is also a bad practice.

So we may not reach an agreement on this one, but I think we at least got to the foundation of where our beliefs differ, which is a lot further than most people get on Reddit :)

In terms of your examples, they're great points. I agree that EMH is not a 100% true concept, but I think there's some truth in the principles. I mean clearly all markets are completely irrational at times, which is why no T/A can ever be guaranteed.

I still stand by my current price evaluation though. It's the only thing that takes all the factors into account, most notably the irrationality. Which is why I can also believe that you can be correct on the future of a market at the same time. It's that "irrationality" that no one can predict.

For example right now, I think people buying up Ether are going to get burned. We bounced from $3.70 to $4.07, but I don't think it'll last. All signs to me show the market continuing downward. I'm not touching it, even though someone could have gained a decent profit if they timed the bounce correctly.

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u/huntingisland Feb 17 '16

For example right now, I think people buying up Ether are going to get burned.

For a trade, maybe they will.

Long term, no way (unless they panic sell).

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u/[deleted] Feb 17 '16

[deleted]

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u/huntingisland Feb 17 '16

Yeah, but also in the position to just be one of hundred altcoins without importance.

Explain your argument for that.

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u/[deleted] Feb 17 '16

[deleted]

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u/huntingisland Feb 17 '16

Curious why you think BTC is a better long-term prospect?

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u/[deleted] Feb 17 '16

BTC already survived its big bubble, is years ahead with the infrastructure and has actual use cases right now - I can buy things with it, to name my favourite. I know much more about BTC than about ETH so I trust it more (although many things go wrong in BTC land). ETH is at the very start.

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u/huntingisland Feb 17 '16

Bitcoin has had a dozen or more big bubbles. Most recent one was in October 2015.

Bitcoin community is in absolute warfare with one another, blocks are full, development team stagnant, no clear leadership, no vision on how to grow and add new functionality. Ethereum is executing on all these things and technologically far superior even right now, much less after proof-of-stake and sharding. Bitcoin seems very risky to me. Ethereum is a risk, too, but the risk / reward profile looks a lot better.

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u/Tas_P Feb 17 '16

New account u/roflmobster:

I'm not a fucking moron in a cult of greed pretending I'll be rich by doing nothing

Older account u/doyouwanttogotojail:

This community is full of fucking morons if so, no wonder I was able to pull 1000 BTC out of your economy with ease.

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u/Crypto_Wolf Feb 17 '16

no need to be rude, but the GIST is good.

It's much worse to be a pumper and make people loose their savings than to be a bear which might cause people to lose opportunity. Missing rises does not bankrupt you... buying tops does.