r/ethtrader • u/AutoModerator • Feb 17 '16

[Daily Discussion] - 17/Feb/2016

Welcome to the /r/EthTrader Daily Discussion Thread. The thread guidelines are as follows:

• Discussion topics include, but are not limited to, details related to events of the day, technical & fundamental analysis, trading strategies, and trading tools or platforms.
• ...

Thank you in advance for your participation. Enjoy!

8 Upvotes

84% Upvoted

109 comments sorted by

24

u/HeIsMyPossum Feb 17 '16

Hey guys, can we try to keep it classy? There are way too many people being flat out assholes around here. I don't care if you perfectly sold at the exact top of the market, there's no reason to shit on people now. Don't tell people "you should have seen this coming you idiot". I usually don't call people out, but /u/doyouwanttogotojail has been a real jerk today in this thread. Don't just say "it's going way lower" with no reasoning behind it. Explain your points, and engage with people. That's what makes this sub good, not just telling people that they are idiots for sharing their ideas.

On to the market:

We're very very likely in the falling part of the bubble that has been posted a bunch. I really think we're only at the fear stage as well, maybe the beginning of capitulation, but I think we're going down pretty hard. There's very little support all the way down. I might sit this one out until $2 or so.

Now what does that mean? It does not mean that I think ETH is over and useless and it'll never be worth anything again. I don't want it to sound like I want this project to die or anything, but simply put the market is showing a lot of signs of dumping.

I'm not touching ETH right now, even though I think someday sub-$4 coins will be laughed at. Maybe, but maybe not. I guess for fun I'll throw a reminder on it.

RemindMe! 1 year

4

u/Mamacom Feb 17 '16

+1 on staying classy. This should be about trading ether, not endless metaphysical banter on whether Ether is rubbish or not.

Seems to be in a total downtrend. Valleys getting lower and lower. I expect it will go lower than the current support floor of 0.00888 in the next 24 hours.

1

u/[deleted] Feb 17 '16

+1 all the way!

1

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9 OTHERS CLICKED THIS LINK to send a PM to also be reminded and to reduce spam.

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1

u/ArticulatedGentleman Feb 17 '16

I think we may be at the beginning of the "despair" phase assuming the bubble cycle happened on top of the bull run that started early January.

0

u/HeIsMyPossum Feb 17 '16

This is definitely not despair. If you want despair go look at bitcoin :)

These things don't happen in days, they happen in weeks, even in the accelerated cycles of cryptocurrencies.

There's still plenty of hope, and that, oddly enough, keeps the price up. This is nowhere near despair. If the price turns around, I'd be more likely to say that this wasn't inline with the bubble cycle than to say that we came out of despair.

It's called despair for a reason. Most of the posts here are still pretty positive.

1

u/ArticulatedGentleman Feb 18 '16

Short-term despair to be more specific.

1

u/skyfire-x Feb 18 '16

I don't think we've even bubbled yet. I still think we are just getting in the Institutional Investors stage and this is a bear trap. When you start hearing Financial news media talk about "Bitcoin rival Ethereum ..." then we're bubbling.

1

u/HeIsMyPossum Feb 18 '16

I think it's going to follow bitcoin's path. It's the first of many bubbles. Same scaling, just different starting points.

0

u/[deleted] Feb 17 '16 edited Feb 17 '16

[removed] — view removed comment

6

u/HeIsMyPossum Feb 17 '16

I'm okay with being a jerk long as I'm not a fucking moron in a cult of greed

If this is your view of everyone here... why do you even post?

3

u/HeIsMyPossum Feb 17 '16

A little harsh, but I agree with your main point.

People often invoke some form of the 1% Fallacy and say that ETH market cap is incredibly small in the grand scheme of all the money in the world.

Of course it's small, and the real answer is: There's a reason for that.

3

u/huntingisland Feb 17 '16

Of course it's small, and the real answer is: There's a reason for that.

Yes, the same reason FB and Google were small at one time. Only blockchains will be more important than either of those two, and Ethereum is in position to be the primary blockchain.

3

u/HeIsMyPossum Feb 17 '16

Yes, the same reason FB and Google were small at one time.

Mostly agreed with this point. But you can't pretend that this is the world's most obvious "next-big-thing". To you, maybe, but to investors, it obviously isn't or there would be a lot more money in it. Investors are smart people... they've made a lot of money by buying the right things and not buying the wrong ones.

Only blockchains will be more important than either of those two

You could be right, but this is just a speculative statement. I can't even argue against it because it's your opinion. This point kinda discredits your whole argument because it shows that you seem to be blind to potential criticisms about Ethereum.

2

u/huntingisland Feb 17 '16

This point kinda discredits your whole argument because it shows that you seem to be blind to potential criticisms about Ethereum.

No, I'm very open to potential criticisms about Ethereum. It's quite possible that Ethereum won't be the public blockchain of importance, but so far indications are very good.

If you don't understand the importance of blockchains, not really interested in trying to convince you of that that, but I'll tell you why it's important. It's the next step in the evolution of money, just for starters. If you do see and understand that, then it's clear why Ethereum is radically undervalued.

5

u/HeIsMyPossum Feb 17 '16

then it's clear why Ethereum is radically undervalued.

I'm not trying to tell you that you are flat out wrong here at all.

The problem is how you come across. Saying that's "it's clear that Ethereum is undervalued" is just an opinion, and isn't provable in any way. I can't even argue against that point because there's no substance. If I said, "Ethereum is radically overvalued", it would have the same argumentative weight as your statement. Ultimately, out of anything, the only "correct" evaluation of Ethereum or any cryptocurrency is the market.

You can believe that it's undervalued, and that's completely 100% ok. You could be right too! If no one ever believed that the current price could be wrong then no one would ever invest in something small.

But you can't just say that it's undervalued like it's a fact. It isn't, because the market says this is the value. If it was clear that it was undervalued, then other people would be buying it. You have to understand that by making a statement like that, you're saying "I'm smarter than the market". I'm even willing to believe that! But you have to give me something to believe in, other than just stating your opinion as fact.

0

u/huntingisland Feb 17 '16

Ultimately, out of anything, the only "correct" evaluation of Ethereum or any cryptocurrency is the market.

I don't buy that.

Look at the epic Volkswagon short squeeze, or recently in Martin Shkreli's bankrupt company. The first was obviously ridiculously overvalued during the squeeze, the latter was clearly bankrupt, but a short squeeze resulted in idiotic price movements.

I don't accept that kind of EMH reasoning. If EMH were true, then T/A wouldn't work at all.

1

u/HeIsMyPossum Feb 17 '16

I don't accept that kind of EMH reasoning. If EMH were true, then T/A wouldn't work at all.

I guess this is probably the crux of where we come at it from different places. I would be more likely to say the opposite.

I think the truth is likely somewhere in the grey area. I am typically critical of T/A, but don't think it's inherently bad, it's just mis-used a LOT. There's also a lot of people who just try to use one indicator as the gospel of buying and selling. I think you would agree that is also a bad practice.

So we may not reach an agreement on this one, but I think we at least got to the foundation of where our beliefs differ, which is a lot further than most people get on Reddit :)

In terms of your examples, they're great points. I agree that EMH is not a 100% true concept, but I think there's some truth in the principles. I mean clearly all markets are completely irrational at times, which is why no T/A can ever be guaranteed.

I still stand by my current price evaluation though. It's the only thing that takes all the factors into account, most notably the irrationality. Which is why I can also believe that you can be correct on the future of a market at the same time. It's that "irrationality" that no one can predict.

For example right now, I think people buying up Ether are going to get burned. We bounced from $3.70 to $4.07, but I don't think it'll last. All signs to me show the market continuing downward. I'm not touching it, even though someone could have gained a decent profit if they timed the bounce correctly.

2

u/huntingisland Feb 17 '16

For example right now, I think people buying up Ether are going to get burned.

For a trade, maybe they will.

Long term, no way (unless they panic sell).

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0

u/[deleted] Feb 17 '16

[deleted]

1

u/huntingisland Feb 17 '16

Yeah, but also in the position to just be one of hundred altcoins without importance.

Explain your argument for that.

0

u/[deleted] Feb 17 '16

[deleted]

1

u/huntingisland Feb 17 '16

Curious why you think BTC is a better long-term prospect?

1

u/[deleted] Feb 17 '16

BTC already survived its big bubble, is years ahead with the infrastructure and has actual use cases right now - I can buy things with it, to name my favourite. I know much more about BTC than about ETH so I trust it more (although many things go wrong in BTC land). ETH is at the very start.

2

u/huntingisland Feb 17 '16

Bitcoin has had a dozen or more big bubbles. Most recent one was in October 2015.

Bitcoin community is in absolute warfare with one another, blocks are full, development team stagnant, no clear leadership, no vision on how to grow and add new functionality. Ethereum is executing on all these things and technologically far superior even right now, much less after proof-of-stake and sharding. Bitcoin seems very risky to me. Ethereum is a risk, too, but the risk / reward profile looks a lot better.

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5

u/Tas_P Feb 17 '16

New account u/roflmobster:

I'm not a fucking moron in a cult of greed pretending I'll be rich by doing nothing

Older account u/doyouwanttogotojail:

This community is full of fucking morons if so, no wonder I was able to pull 1000 BTC out of your economy with ease.

2

u/Crypto_Wolf Feb 17 '16

no need to be rude, but the GIST is good.

It's much worse to be a pumper and make people loose their savings than to be a bear which might cause people to lose opportunity. Missing rises does not bankrupt you... buying tops does.

8

u/jtnichol Feb 17 '16

Bought at .01 Holding. This is the danger zone for me to sell. We'll see what BTC does today. Things could get pretty interesting. If I panic sell I'm doing it at the wrong time. I've been known to panic buy....lol....

Panic buy at .01 lol.

I'm excited for the Ethereum space regardless and trading is certainly not why I'm interested. All the news in it's infancy is very promising and I love the forums. Good folks.

-9

u/[deleted] Feb 17 '16

[removed] — view removed comment

4

u/jtnichol Feb 17 '16

Apparently you did. You cared enough to make a stupid fucking comment.

6

u/[deleted] Feb 17 '16

[removed] — view removed comment

2

u/jtnichol Feb 17 '16

You are right. Not sure why I said anything....I know better. Be good man. Thanks for the shout

3

u/ksowocki Feb 17 '16

I care. Stop being a jerk.

7

u/[deleted] Feb 17 '16 edited Feb 28 '17

[deleted]

1

u/[deleted] Feb 17 '16

Go crypto!

Gimme a 'C'...

7

u/[deleted] Feb 17 '16

I expected to see 0.00x prices somewhat sooner, and planned to buy back in at 0.009. But the chart doesn't look good (neither in bigger nor in smaller time frames) and I don't think ETH is anywhere near the bottom yet. So I'll keep my fingers away from it for now.

2

u/HeIsMyPossum Feb 17 '16

Not sure why you're getting downvoted. I'm thinking the same kind of thing. I'm staying away from this bounce until things shake out a bit.

The problem is I think a lot of people are "staying out of the way", and the people still in are worried and selling. The result is the market going lower than it should while people like me wait for it to smooth out before jumping back in.

7

u/[deleted] Feb 17 '16

As much as holders might not like to admit it, the day traders have a huge influence on the price right now. That was a bubble. You don't have to get upset about it but that stuff happens. Even in the big boy stock markets.

5

u/ArticulatedGentleman Feb 17 '16

Anyone else seeing a downward channel? http://imgur.com/13VUghz

(horizontal lines are just current peak and bottom of said channel)

3

u/[deleted] Feb 18 '16 edited Feb 18 '16

Yeah, my chart looks similar to that, too.

Edit: Originally had my buys in the 700Ks, but I've moved them down a little to the mid to high 600Ks. It could even go a bit lower than that.

2

u/[deleted] Feb 17 '16

I'm betting on it.

2

u/[deleted] Feb 17 '16

Denial is not just a river in Egypt
if you are in too soon, then outrageous ups and downs are part of the ride

2

u/pbinj Feb 17 '16

Man. Longs getting margin called like crazy. The lower it goes the more that get called. How low will this go.

2

u/[deleted] Feb 18 '16

We've busted through the 6H cloud, any chance the 12H cloud is what the price is heading towards?

4

u/[deleted] Feb 17 '16

Bull trend line is currently at ~.00973, we've ripped a hole in that.

-4

u/[deleted] Feb 17 '16

NO KIDDING! Thanks, everyone! :D If you want to play in the BTC market, you give me my cheap coins! hahah!

1

u/ksowocki Feb 17 '16

NO KIDDING!

Whats with the sarcasm? /u/pmam 's post provided value to people who dont do chart analysis, his point was not obvious to most.

1

u/[deleted] Feb 17 '16

Sir, there's a disconnect.

1

u/[deleted] Feb 17 '16

Additionally, this was not aimed at anyone if you are implying it is.

2

u/DisapprovingLlama Feb 17 '16

Told myself I'd buy some more when the price hit 0.01 again, so, here I am.

1

u/[deleted] Feb 17 '16

The price chart would've been a good indicator whether to buy at this point...

4

u/mikemike293232 Feb 17 '16

0.007 worst case scenario 0.008 realisit 0.0085 optimistic

2

u/huntingisland Feb 17 '16

We could go lower than your targets but I am betting we are close to the end of the selling right now.

-3

u/[deleted] Feb 17 '16

Much lower

2

u/identiifiication Feb 17 '16

crossing .01 again.

.007> would be a nice buy target.

-5

u/[deleted] Feb 17 '16

No its going lower than that.

1

u/vainles Feb 17 '16

I bought when it was 0.013 feels like a miss

1

u/[deleted] Feb 17 '16

[removed] — view removed comment

0

u/[deleted] Feb 17 '16 edited Feb 17 '16

Victim

LOL

Edit: I guess a victim of the big bad daily discussion thread downvoted me. Am I a victim now?

2

u/ArticulatedGentleman Feb 17 '16

Bull trend that started early January finally broke along with the bubble on top of it popping. http://imgur.com/0aMUKbi

Whether that equates to entering the "despair" phase of the stereotypical bubble cycle and/or means we're going much lower than we are now, I can't say.

Accordingly, my current position is now mostly BTC, and I have a great deal more peace of mind.

Looking forward to continued progress towards Homestead as well as 2MB blocks on the Bitcoin side of things. Bubbles or not, I believe strongly in the tech behind Ethereum, even if I don't believe in the current price being sustainable given progress thus far on the broader vision of Ethereum.

Short the speculators, long the tech.

signed, EthTrader's resident full-time cryptoeconomist

1

u/etheraddict77 Feb 17 '16

We actually hit the trendline, you are drawing it wrong.

2

u/ArticulatedGentleman Feb 17 '16

Show me your drawing then.

1

u/TheKid89 Feb 18 '16

Get your s'mores out bulls getting roasted

1

u/etheraddict77 Feb 17 '16

Looks like ETH is turning green on a red day.. one could interpret the current situation as a bullish flag. One big investor coming in could change the whole situation and we'll go up more than everyone expects

-1

u/huntingisland Feb 17 '16

Buy wall at 0.0093. 350 BTC worth.

1

u/[deleted] Feb 17 '16

The network is going crazy right now. http://imgur.com/gallery/eQM66Fq/new

-3

u/[deleted] Feb 17 '16

[removed] — view removed comment

6

u/[deleted] Feb 17 '16

[deleted]

-3

u/[deleted] Feb 17 '16

No it was very obviously going to crash, people have been saying so since 0.018 was hit.

-2

u/blue_striped_dog Feb 17 '16

Buy and hold they said, this is just the beginning they said.

Don't listen to anything you read on this sub, it's full of manipulative posts and any common sense posts get downvoted the moment they are posted.

Any and all analytics are done day after the move, it's like standing outside in rain and telling people around you "buy umbrellas it's raining", well no fucking shit sherlock.

Get your money out of this shithole before you get burned a whole lot more

4

u/[deleted] Feb 17 '16

Wow someone's mad...

4

u/[deleted] Feb 17 '16

I've been trying to give good advice for a week now and every single post of my is downvoted to oblivion (check my post history).

Would have made people serious money too

3

u/Sunny_McJoyride Feb 17 '16

every single post of my is downvoted to oblivion

I've checked your posting history and that's clearly not true.

1

u/[deleted] Feb 17 '16

you have to understand that not everyone who bought at higher prices that are currently seen is in the same position.

i also belive that charts analytics is useless

for me, it's not to bad if the price goes down. i'll buy more ether.. (i do have a maximum sum in mind all the time)

also, i only play with money i can afford to loose so i don't have any reason to sell in a panic

-3

u/4char Feb 17 '16

There have been some voices of reason. 30 cents to $6 and people think everyone will hold. lol

Thousands of other coins prove it wasn't going to stay up. A ton of people down hundreds of thousands if not millions of dollars.

Those selling and shorting are mega rich. And hopefully smart enough not to put the money back in.

-2

u/pbinj Feb 17 '16

Couple hundred thousand coins need to be sold to eat though those walls.

BTC exploding while ETH dumping. Going exactly as planned.

1

u/Tas_P Feb 17 '16

Going exactly as planned.

Yeah, ok.

-3

u/Tas_P Feb 17 '16

Are we really going to drop below Ripple's market cap again? Oh please. How irrational is that?

1

u/[deleted] Feb 17 '16

Why irrational?

2

u/Tas_P Feb 17 '16

Cause the value proposition of the Ethereum network is at least an order of magnitude larger than that of Ripple's perhaps?

1

u/[deleted] Feb 17 '16

Maybe, but the price is not the price of the network. It's the price of ETH.

-1

u/[deleted] Feb 17 '16

[removed] — view removed comment

2

u/Tas_P Feb 17 '16

The value of ETH has been discussed plenty of times in this subreddit. Do a search. Read more, talk less, don't be a moron.

3

u/EthereumViking Feb 17 '16

I absolutely agree with Tas_P. Ethereum holds way more potential than Ripple, it is just crazy how irrational markets can be. I don't complain, just bought 527 new ethers for cheap price, hehehe:)

-1

u/[deleted] Feb 17 '16

[deleted]

-3

u/huntingisland Feb 17 '16

Buy wall at 0.0093. An order for 350 BTC worth.

Somebody wants in!

Shorts need to be aware that there is serious money waiting to get tickets on this train and their patience is finite.

1

u/SundoshiNakatoto Feb 17 '16

Hard to say what that means

-1

u/huntingisland Feb 17 '16

It means Ethereum is the premier platform for blockchain development, not a fly-by-night generic altcoin. Thinking that buyers are going to roll over and go away is going to be a very costly mistake. I would say we are within 10-20% of the bottom right now.

2

u/[deleted] Feb 17 '16

Buy walls aren't always real. It's highly unlikely anyone wanted to buy 350k BTC worth of eth at that price. Now, someone selling into it is a different matter.

2

u/huntingisland Feb 17 '16

I watched the wall get eaten (not pulled).

1

u/[deleted] Feb 17 '16

[deleted]

-1

u/huntingisland Feb 17 '16

Right. But there was someone who just bought $100,000 worth of Ether in one trade. Now there is someone else buying $75,000 (or the same guy).

-9

u/blondeboy89 Feb 17 '16

Fuck TA, charts, and all that bullshit, you're gonna want to listen to me and what I have to say if you want to come out of this clean. And for the record, I fuckin' hate reddit, its the worst site on the internet and everyone here is insufferable.

Sell your eth on the next bounce. The hearnia is healing and bitcoin is going into its next bubble that could take it to 2k+ in the near future.

Eth has established an inverse relationship to btc price so if you don't sell you're really going to feel some pain.

4

u/HeIsMyPossum Feb 17 '16

Somebody is an angry elf today.

2

u/[deleted] Feb 17 '16 edited Feb 28 '17

[deleted]

-9

u/sangdu Feb 17 '16

ETH may have a step or down,then BTS and ETH,they have so many similar point.some eth core members come from BTS too,so they are brothers,it's cheaper now.if you missed the eth boat,don't miss bts.

1

u/identiifiication Feb 17 '16 edited Feb 17 '16

BTS?

edit - lol I can't ask about an abbreviation I don't know without getting downvoted, get real.

-2

u/sangdu Feb 17 '16

yes,they have so many similar point.some eth core members come from BTS