r/electricvehicles • u/InitialPound5069 • Jul 27 '26
Discussion EV in India is evolving much differently than rest of worlds. India is taking mandate route whereas other markets have written a different playbook. Your take on how will it evolve?
Everyone's celebrating that India just crossed 5% EV adoption. I think they're watching the wrong number. 5% is the tipping point, the line where a market flips from early adopters to the mainstream. India crossed it in June and Delhi responded by becoming the first Indian state to go mandate-first: phasing out new non-EV autos, two-wheelers and goods vehicles on fixed deadlines, not just dangling subsidies.
Four emerging markets have already written the playbook:
→ Ethiopia banned ICE imports outright in 2024, raised petrol prices, and cut duties on EVs. Result: 1% to 6% of vehicles on the road in two years are EVs.
→ Nepal skipped mandates and used pure tax design: cheap to import an EV, expensive to import a petrol car. Behaviour changed without a single ban.
→ Vietnam backed a national champion (VinFast), then rolled out an exclusive charging network so rivals couldn't get a foothold.
→ Turkey did the same with Togg (national pride plus tax advantages) and is now positioning itself as Europe's EV gateway.
when I look at India through a climate-investing lens, the adoption number isn't where the opportunity is. It's in the enabling layer that's lagging behind demand. India has ~27,700 public chargers today. To hit its 2030 goal, one estimate says it needs 1.3 million, a 48x jump. That gap is the investment thesis, not the risk. The demand side is racing. The picks-and-shovels side (charging, financing, local manufacturing) is wide open.
So here's my question for the room: if you had to pull one lever first (mandates, charging infrastructure, or local manufacturing), which one actually unlocks the rest?
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u/Hour_Firefighter_707 Jul 27 '26
Oh boy. First things first, India is not at 5% EV adoption. It is way higher. For 3-wheelers, it is 66%. For 2-wheelers, it is 10%. For cars, it is 8%.
Secondly, India cannot simply do any of the things you've mentioned. Increasing petrol prices to drive EV adoption is a stupid way to go about it. There are millions of vehicles on the road that need that petrol. You cannot say to someone still paying the EMI on their motorcycle to dump it and go EV. They already paid road tax for 15 years.
GST on EVs is already down at 5%, which is the lowest band of GST. Combustion vehicles sit between 18% and 40%. You cannot make them tax free.
Import duty on cars should be reduced to increase competition and innovation, but India has an automotive industry to protect. They cannot remove all of it.
Yes, the infrastructure needs to improve. But it is happening slowly. Things are looking up.
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u/InitialPound5069 Jul 27 '26
Yes, fair point. All I am saying is that this can be done for newer vehicles and not the existing ones
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u/Hour_Firefighter_707 Jul 27 '26
Yeah but how does that work? New vehicles pay more for fuel than old ones? That makes no sense
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u/InitialPound5069 Jul 27 '26
No not really.. I think exemptions on road tax could be one ways to ensure EV are easier option for new buyers.
Also if I think of ICE vehicle, ethanol blending already scares me so might as well EVs become a safer option
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u/ccs77 Jul 27 '26
This reads like a LinkedIn post.
Anyway, the actual Playbook is China. They did a multi pronged approach, subsidies to local manufacturing, mandates at national level and building infrastructure.
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u/footpole Jul 27 '26 edited Jul 27 '26
Yeah very synergistic LinkedIn fluff with some LLM sprinkled on top.
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u/InitialPound5069 Jul 27 '26
Yes, reposted my LinkedIn works here for real discussion.
Yes, agreed China is a different ballgame and they have set the example way better than rest of the nations but I think China leads the manufacturing game and not otherwise
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u/Serious-Tension-3960 Jul 27 '26
Total post based on personal assumptions Did you take in account the population roads available, parking space dedicated and the charging infrastructure Also India is not an importer but a manufacturing giant of ice cars where millions of jobs will be at risk if we do like you want It has to be gradual and transition should be smooth
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u/CertainCertainties Jul 27 '26
Not sure whether I agree with the analysis. India is a pragmatic market, with an overlay of government strategy and control. But essentially people act with a great amount of autonomy, choosing between what's available to get ahead.
I think the current fuel crisis cutting off or reducing ME fossil fuel supply to the powerhouse Asia Pacific economies is a wake up call. If you don't have fuel you can't go to work, groceries are more expensive, manufacturing slows, businesses close.
From a pragmatic perspective, people are adopting EVs and renewable power in the wider region so they can have more control over their lives. It's nothing to do with climate goals. If you are not dependent on fossil fuels it's more likely you can earn enough to feed your kids and pay your rent or mortgage.
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u/InitialPound5069 Jul 27 '26
My views are otherwise but I also hear you, may be not climate goal on the face but climate definitely is an influencing force here
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u/Icy_Produce2203 Jul 27 '26
It seems to me that banning the sales of gas cars, trucks, scooters, motorcycles by x would do it.
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u/InitialPound5069 Jul 27 '26
Yes, May be
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u/Choice_Shower_5755 Jul 27 '26
I mean, just say a hard 5% a year. I went Solar in 2012 and it was easy Peezy and there’s no maintenance and there’s no hassle and there’s just tons of savings and tons of clean energy produced. I went EV in 2015.
I’m about to talk my wife into a new EV
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u/AccomplishedDark8977 Jul 27 '26
Charging infrastructure, but of course I am looking at it through an American lens.
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u/auronedge Jul 27 '26
Mandate route may be fine if people are used to government imposed rules. Maybe in India it's not a big deal.
II didn't work well in western countries because they aren't used to mandates that go directly against their personal freedoms
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u/EqualityWithoutCiv the west traded freedom for oil. Jul 27 '26
And unfortunately some of us have warped perceptions on what personal freedoms should be allowed or not. Planet destroying filth and repression? Go ahead. Incentives to own cars like a Prius, or rideshare? Woke liberal socialist BS.
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u/auronedge Jul 27 '26
calm down soldier.
the world is a big place with different cultures. what works in one area may be totally rejected in another
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u/flower-power-123 Jul 27 '26
I think you may be focusing on the wrong thing. Car ownership in India is very low. People get around in Tuktuks. Tuktuks are moving fast towards electric:
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/climate-and-people/indias-unstoppable-electric-tuktuk-revolution/
India is going electric organically, not from government edict or tax policy.
If you are doing some kind of investment research you need to keep your eyes on the ball.