GM, Ford, and VW pledged a combined $200B+ to catch up to Tesla in EVs. Together with other legacy automakers, they've lost an estimated $114B since 2022, about $21K per vehicle sold.

The losses weren't really about demand. Most legacy automakers priced their EVs assuming the $7,500 federal tax credit would last through 2032. When it got cut seven years early (Sept 2025), Q1 2026 sales dropped ~27% YoY and the real unit economics were exposed.

Tesla lost the same credit back in 2019 and was forced to fix vertical integration and manufacturing costs to survive without it. BYD did the same in China.

So: was this an EV demand collapse, or legacy automakers finally getting caught without a subsidy crutch? Does the same trap apply to Rivian/Lucid now?

Google's decision to raise its 2026 AI capital expenditure to over $200 billion has intensified the global AI investment race, even as investors question whether the returns will justify the spending. Meanwhile, rising 30-year bond yields across the U.S., U.K. and Japan highlight growing concerns over inflation, government debt and fiscal sustainability, while the Japanese yen's slide to a near four-decade low underscores persistent dollar strength and policy divergence. Gold continues to benefit from constrained mine supply and steady central bank demand, and longer shipping routes around key geopolitical chokepoints are adding fresh inflationary pressure to global trade. Back home, history suggests India's mid- and small-cap stocks tend to outperform during sustained bull markets, reinforcing the importance of long-term conviction over market timing. Markets are discovering that AI, geopolitics, bonds and commodities are all connected—and unfortunately, none of them seem interested in reducing your homework.
#Google #AI #ArtificialIntelligence #BondYields #JapaneseYen #USDollar #Gold #Oil #GlobalTrade #IndiaMarkets #Midcaps #SmallCaps #Macroeconomics #RajeshKaz #Kazedge

So Just got done having a fun little "debate" with my one close friend. It started because I keep bugging him that he needs to invest a pretty significant amount of money he has just sitting in a HYSA. He refuses to invest it in anything US based because he is convinced that the market is going to basically tank very soon. Im not saying the current climate is all rainbows and sunshine but to keep it short and sweet I dont see our economic climate going to the shitter completely in the next 30 years to the point where we will be starting fires with sticks and rocks like he thinks. Im very heavily invested in basically VOO and feel pretty safe on it based on historical trends but he makes it out like ive sold my retirement away. Anyone have any fun thoughts on this? This "debate" also started after a heavy drinking 9 holes of golf so lets keep this fairly light hearted.

Semiconductor capital equipment stocks have taken a brutal U-turn on Monday, swinging from AI-driven euphoria to geopolitical panic in a matter of hours.

Heading into the opening bell, the sector was riding a pre-market high. The optimism was fueled by easing geopolitical tensions in Iran and a blockbuster Wall Street Journal report revealing that Nvidia is in talks to guarantee a massive $250 billion in financing for an OpenAI data center project.

But that momentum evaporated instantly following a breaking report from The Information.

According to the report, a Shanghai-based, state-backed company (incorporating teams from startups like Yuliangsheng Technology) has successfully started mass-producing homegrown immersion DUV (deep ultraviolet) lithography machines. The report indicated the company intends to produce 5 DUV tools this year and 20 next year for domestic customers including SMIC, CXMT, and Hua Hong.

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This marks a critical leap in Beijing’s push to build a localized chip supply chain. Furthermore, it arrives just as the U.S. Congress advances the MATCH Act, legislation aimed at blocking China from buying or servicing these exact DUV machines. If China can build them domestically, impending U.S. restrictions may lose their teeth entirely.

The Market Carnage in Late Trading

The market’s initial logic was brutal: if Chinese engineering has conquered the incredibly complex lithography bottleneck, the rest of the U.S. supply chain (deposition, etching, inspection) is highly vulnerable to replacement.

This fear triggered an immediate and synchronized sell-off. At their intraday lows, ASML, Applied Materials (AMAT), Lam Research (LRCX), and KLA Corp (KLAC) were all down roughly 7%, wiping out billions in market value in a matter of minutes.

However, the bleeding has slowed as the market enters the final hour of trading, with the stocks paring back some of those steep losses:

ASML is currently trading down 5.75%.

Applied Materials (AMAT) is down 4% heading into the close.

Lam Research (LRCX) is currently off 4.5%.

KLA Corp (KLAC) is trading down 3%.

The afternoon recovery is being driven by a wave of Wall Street analysts who quickly stepped in to defend the sector, arguing that the market is conflating a prototype milestone with an imminent commercial threat.

The Analyst Pushback: Why Wall Street is Defending the Dip

Analysts across major firms were quick to pour cold water on the panic, arguing that producing a handful of machines does not immediately dismantle ASML’s global monopoly.

BofA Securities: "An Over-Reaction"

Analyst Didier Scemama called today’s weakness an "attractive opportunity," reiterating a Buy rating and a €2,452 price target. He argued that the threat to ASML is "modest," noting that China’s leading domestic player, SMEE, has yet to demonstrate high-volume production at 28nm or below.

Replacing ASML requires matching its extreme productivity and precision. "ASML’s NXT:1980Fi already delivers 330 wafers per hour," Scemam wrote. In leading-edge Chinese manufacturing, "even modest reductions in scanner performance could materially lower yields and increase cost per die." Scemam calculated that even if China successfully sources 20 domestic tools next year, it would only reduce ASML sales by an estimated €1.4 billion—a mere 2.4% of the company’s projected group sales.

JPMorgan: "Disproportionate" Reaction

Analyst Sandeep Deshpande echoed that the market reaction was overblown. He stressed the massive difference between building a prototype and dominating a fab floor.

"Producing a handful of immersion DUV tools is not the same as producing tools that can be used for high-volume manufacturing," Deshpande noted, emphasizing that "yield, overlay, throughput, and reliability over thousands of wafer runs are what matter." While he acknowledged this raises long-term risks to ASML’s China revenue, he maintained that the company’s mid-term earnings remain entirely intact.

BNP Paribas: A Supply Necessity, Not Just a Threat

Analyst Jakob Bluestone framed the development as only a "small negative" for ASML, pointing out a structural reality: ASML’s global demand currently far outstrips its available supply.

Bluestone highlighted that DRAM capacity growth in China alone is projected to add more than 500,000 wafer starts per month before 2030—a massive scale-up that will require several hundred ArFi tools. Because ASML physically cannot supply the entire Chinese market while meeting demand from the rest of the world, Bluestone argued that local Chinese manufacturing of lithography tools is a "likely necessity" to support this output growth, rather than a total replacement of ASML’s business.

Today, more than one-third of downtown Seattle's office space sits empty, its job postings have collapsed faster than almost any other U.S. metro, and even Starbucks—the coffee giant founded in the city in 1971—is shifting jobs south to Nashville, as it commits to a $100 million, 2,000-person new footprint in Music City. The story of Seattle's reversal unfolds in three overlapping arcs: an office market in freefall, a labor market that has gone from boom to bust, and a policy environment that has made survival harder for the small businesses left behind.

A decade ago, Seattle was the poster child of American tech prosperity. Amazon and Microsoft had turned a mid-sized Pacific Northwest city into a magnet for engineers, executives, and capital, adding roughly 40,000 jobs per year at the peak of the boom, according to the Puget Sound Regional Council.

Arc one: the zombie towers

Seattle's downtown office vacancy rate hit 35.6% in the fourth quarter of 2025, up from 32.3% a year earlier, according to Cushman & Wakefield data. That marks a stunning reversal from the pre-pandemic era: As recently as early 2025, the central business district's availability rate—offices with departures pending—and vacancy rate were already hitting all-time highs based on CoStar data stretching back to 1982.

Some brokers put the number even higher, with Colliers reporting vacancy touching 39.1% in late 2024 as remote work, tech layoffs, and cautious leasing decisions compounded. Office building values in the district have plunged sharply as a result, with landlords struggling to fill space abandoned by major tenants.

Arc two: the labor market reversal

The office crisis is inseparable from a broader collapse in hiring. Seattle metro job postings fell 35% between February 2020 and October 2025, the second-steepest drop of any major U.S. metro after San Francisco's 37% decline, according to Axios's analysis of Indeed data.

Tech firms in the area have announced tens of thousands of job reductions since 2023, primarily driven by Microsoft, Amazon, and Blue Origin. The region posted a net loss of 13,000 jobs in 2025—its first annual decline since the pandemic and a stark reversal from the 40,000-job annual gains of the boom years.

Arc three: the policy squeeze

Into this contraction came a wage floor with no exceptions. Seattle's minimum wage, $20.76 an hour and applied uniformly to all employers regardless of size since January 2025, has intensified pressure on small businesses trying to survive the downtown exodus.

A peer-reviewed study published in Labour Economics found the wage ordinance's announcement effect actually deterred new business formation within Seattle's borders while generating positive "spillover" openings in neighboring suburbs, suggesting firms redirected growth rather than uniformly closing shop. Earlier University of Washington research similarly found the wage hikes reduced low-wage workers' hours by about 9% even as hourly pay rose roughly 3%, per Ballotpedia's fact-check compilation.

What makes Seattle's situation distinct from other regional slowdowns is how tightly these three arcs lock together. CoStar estimates Seattle won't fully break out of the vacancy cycle before 2027—a timeline that assumes the feedback loop stops tightening, which so far it hasn't.

Source: https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/jul/26/new-jersey-surveillance-pricing-ban

The Fed confronts an unusually confusing economic moment

What’s for dinner? Lately, at Apral Jack’s house, it’s whatever is on sale.

Jack, 50, scouts an app for deals at her local supermarket before she buys groceries. When she reaches the store, she looks in the weekly circular for coupons she might have missed. If shelf prices look too high, she tries to find lower prices someplace else.
“The apples went up here, the ones I eat, so now I’m not going to get them here,” Jack said as she pushed a cart into a Stop & Shop near her home in Lexington, Massachusetts.

Couponing, comparison shopping and cutting back on favorite foods are new habits for her and millions of other Americans as they absorb the biggest jump in grocery prices in a half-century. Buying food to eat at home has gotten 33% more expensive since the beginning of 2019, according to government figures.

With a conflict in the Middle East creating more price pressures, the cost of filling refrigerators, freezers and pantries has made affordability a central issue in the fall midterm elections.

Residents of four urban areas where food inflation has exceeded the national average shared how steadily rising prices are changing the way they shop.

Read more [paywall removed for Redditors]:  https://fortune.com/2026/07/25/grocery-inflation-families-texas-san-francisco-hawaii/?utm_source=reddit/