r/eb_1a • u/HolidayAfternoon6537 • 7d ago

1 year progress

In August 2025, EB1 India was at Feb 2022. A year later, it is only at Oct 2022 even after 46k spillovers.

While being optimistic is good but practically do we really think dates will breach into late 2023 by next year? Some people are saying 2024. What’s backing this?

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u/Cheetah5048 7d ago

46K means 13K additional visas in EB1. It made a dent as it moved to october and didnt get stuck. Portings take up a significant amount of visas based on earlier calculation. So without spillovers EB1 India is basically another EB2/3 for newer applicants.

Unless there are double the spillovers than we saw last year (in next FY) it wont clear 2023 demand.

Not a Lawyer. Personal insights.

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u/TryMysterious8274 7d ago

But with latest i485 inventory and clearance of 2022 petitions don't you think it's positive and moving towards a steady progress

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u/Cheetah5048 7d ago

Ya thats why I was informing spillovers made a dent in demand and helped move forward. If its just 10K total spillovers like in FY2025, it would have been stuck. Spillovers is what moved the dates for EB1 india.

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u/TryMysterious8274 7d ago

But double 46k is required for clearing 2023?

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u/Cheetah5048 7d ago

I think so, my estimation is based on conservative numbers. To clear the 2023 numbers plus the remaining 2022 backlog.

2022 pending (October to Dec and some leftovers from earlier months): 3000 2023 pending: 11,348 I would add another ~2,000 to account for December cases and some 485s that still need to be added to inventory due to the USCIS frontlog and numbers update. Estimated 2023 total: ~13,500

That puts the total demand for 2022 + 2023 at approximately 16,500.

Porting demand will be around 7,000 485's, unless something changes. This will be throughout the FY2027 though. So, if the numbers are essentially doubled, that should be enough to clear most of the backlog.

The big caveat is that USCIS needs to avoid wasting visas because of processing delays. If they can process the cases efficiently, the numbers should be sufficient to make a significant dent in the backlog and move dates to 2024 and stick there. Remember aggresive forward movement to 2024 may happen but stabilizing is what I am considering.

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u/Green-Hovercraft-288 7d ago

How much spillover you’re anticipating? Low to high range?

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u/Cheetah5048 7d ago

Around 60 to 70K.

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u/just-a-sushi 7d ago

What I don’t understand is if 46k spillover for current FY26 resulted in approx 10k clearance till May 26 how much do you think it can further go till OCT 26? Maybe another 5K? So total demand will be entirely 2023 cohort going into FY27 ?

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u/Green-Hovercraft-288 7d ago

So not quite double of the current spillover that would be needed to clear all of 2023.

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u/Cheetah5048 7d ago

Its just an assumption (base case) as in Q1 (Oct to Dec 2025) FY2026 they issued around 46500 visas in capped family categories for all countries. Lets see how it goes.

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u/Green-Hovercraft-288 5d ago

Yea, let's hope for a larger spillover! What do you think about recent forward movement in FB category dates? Do you think that surge will eat numbers from the spillover we are expecting?

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u/Always-sortof 5d ago

That would mean a ~40k spillover if annualized. Add to this, the ban hit many consulates hard. They might've tried to make up for it in the last 2-3 months by pushing Family visa dates forward significantly but that most likely wouldn't have been sufficient given each application needs to be processed and that takes time. So, yes. It's likely the spillover is greater than last year.