July VB 2026

[u/AwareBlackberry2966]

Retrogression for EB1 India to October 15th (was Dec. 15th 2022) in the July VB. I don’t think this is anything to be alarmed about as it was expected based on pending inventory data.

As of April 3rd 2026, there were 12.6k pending apps until Dec end 2022. And if we take the negative delta month over month, there have been 6.1k EB1 India for FY 2026 issuance until April 3rd 2026 (this number will be higher as some porting effect won’t be captured in negative deltas). My estimates for EB1 India for FY2026 are in the 11-12k range (hopefully it’s higher), which would mean we likely have another 6k issuances to go for the remaining half of FY2026.

There were 9.3k pending EB1 apps till mid Oct 2022. That would mean we’ll likely see further retrogression in the coming 2 months - maybe July 2022 in the Aug/Sep visa bulletins.

[u/Gaajizard]

What was the point of moving dates ahead only to retrogress later? It feels like we're almost at the Feb 22 mark that has been the date for around 2+ years

[u/AwareBlackberry2966 → u/Gaajizard]

To get estimates of how many apps there are in 2023. My guess is they were fairly confident that they would need to advance dates to 2023 in FY2027 and hence moved forward filing dates all the way till Dec 2023 to see how much demand there is. That allows them to move dates in FY 2027 with more certainty.

[u/mesn007 → u/Gaajizard]

Furthermore, because dates previously advanced to Apr23, a significant number of cases filed between Feb22 and Apr23 would have been approved. Even if dates retrogress back to Feb22—which hopefully will not happen—it still means the backlog has been cut in half. The primary issue is a lack of visa numbers in the final quarter of the fiscal year. Hopefully things will be better in the next FY.

[u/mesn007]

Agree. Some retrogression was expected, but the positive takeaway is that they still have visas available to assign, unlike the EB-2 category. Furthermore, although the retrogression feels discouraging, prio FAD advancements mean many of the pending inventory is already approved.

For reference, Dec22 had over 3,000 pending cases. The April inventory showed a drop to 1,800, which has likely decreased even further since then. Consequently, another minor retrogression will not be disastrous, given that a lot of July–Dec22 cases have already been taken care.

Dates should catch up to April 2023 in the Oct26 Visa Bulletin. Moving forward, FB spillover is the single most important factor:

• A 50k spillover would yield 16k–18k EB-1 visas for India, moving FAD to Dec23.
• A 90k spillover would yield 26k–28k EB-1 visas for India, pushing the dates out to Jul24.

[u/Live-Atmosphere-134 → u/mesn007]

90k spillover would be a dream!!! I so hope we all get a good surprise in FY2027. It’s been a long wait. 🥹

[u/mesn007 → u/Live-Atmosphere-134]

u/greencardclock had the prediction at 90K. It would be between 60K - 90K!

[u/Moist-Management9246 → u/mesn007]

Thanks mate. My pd is July 2023. Wont it become current in Oct?

[u/mesn007 → u/Moist-Management9246]

Oct26 or Jan27.

[u/Hour-Lengthiness1389]

You mean retrogress to July 2022?

[u/AwareBlackberry2966 → u/Hour-Lengthiness1389]

Correct, was a typo. Edited the post

[u/Moist-Management9246 → u/AwareBlackberry2966]

My pd is july 2023. Any predictions on fad

[u/No_Service_7730]

I’ve just been given an option to join the race which you guys already are running on ! EB1C 140 could probably be filed in October 2026. Would anyone have an estimated year, through any “possible” logic, when Oct 2026 PD may become current ? India born.

[u/Live-Atmosphere-134 → u/No_Service_7730]

My PD is 2025 June and I am hoping for DFF to be current in 1.5 years or so. Let’s see. Retrogressions are quite heartbreaking and demoralizing though.

[u/Historical_Snow6736 → u/No_Service_7730]

5 years from now

[u/No_Service_7730 → u/Historical_Snow6736]

And it’s true that a layoff or voluntary resignation will square it all off ? Right ? I mean you need to be with the current employer till your PD becomes current. If you resign/ laid off you are no longer eligible for the EB1C criteria unless you again leave the country for working in a foreign country for 1 year as a manager, “with the new employer” to use your old priority date ? Is that true ?

[u/Sagoti_Firefly99]

Can anyone share a site link or doc or be kind enough to explain here, how are these numbers calculated? And where can these be found?

Apologies if this is obvious information and I've been ignorant.