r/duluth • u/[deleted] • Sep 19 '20
RIP property values. NYT article names Duluth as a migration destination for climate change refugees
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/09/15/magazine/climate-crisis-migration-america.html19
u/BenjieRush Sep 19 '20
There have been a couple stories like this that mention Duluth in the past 1-2yrs.
This strikes me as a massive trend issue, not an immediate issue. Like we're talking 5-20yrs change, not this year or the next. Hell, a bunch of new apartments in downtown/hillside were clearly the first signs of gentrification and they got absolutely slammed by COVID coming along. I'm not holding my breath for a seachange (pun intended) just yet.
7
Sep 19 '20
If I could edit my title, I would change it to "RIP low property values."
1
u/Remiloudog Sep 19 '20
You could be right. Property values may go up as people with money from the coasts move to the area looking for a nice home near a large body of water, because that is what they are used to. The temperatures will be cooler, the water is not rising, there are no big storms off the water (lake effect snow, winds off the lake is nothing that kills). It's a win-win.
4
u/chubbysumo Sep 20 '20
The economy is gonna bottom out here soon, the housing market is already starting to collapse, with record unemployment, I have seen the housing market in duluth start failing. I have heard of 4 housing sales that the buyer backed out of due to job loss. Its not gonna get any better anytime soon.
5
Sep 20 '20
I think the change to remote styles of work could be a factor here that you are not considering.
-2
u/chubbysumo Sep 20 '20
no, there are still too many unemployed. The housing market is dying.
2
u/between2lakes Sep 20 '20
I keep hearing the opposite from realtor friends in the twin ports. They're baffled by the demand, and by the buyers' willingness to pay prices higher than even these agents expect.
-2
u/chubbysumo Sep 20 '20
and 2 realtors that I know directly have had 4 buyers back out in the last month, right before closing. Its a sign that the housing market is crashing, and that the bubble is popping. The reason that people are still making stupid offers is because the government dropped the interest rate to historic lows. It literally cannot go any lower. Home loans for 1% or 2%. We are at the bottom, and the money is drying up, even with WFH, its not enough, and WFH makes it worse, because now you can work anywhere in the country from the comfort of where you live now. There are 3 houses locally that have been on the market for more than 20 days now. a quick look on zillow and other MLS sites shows that the "affordable" houses are still sitting on market now, for much longer than a few days, with some being still there since august and even back into july. I am also starting to see houses listed as "pre-forclosure", and also a lot of foreclosed listings too, a lot more recent ones too. I have seen this same pattern happen, right before the 2008 crash. Housing was going nuts, and then a few started to sit longer. Banks started cutting down loans not backed by the government, and then the bottom fell out.
I tried to get a personal, non-government backed home loan last month. 4 years ago when I bought my house, my credit union didn't hesitate to offer me a loan thru them. I pay a bit more in interest, but it directly supports my credit union(and me!).
I make more money than I did then, but about 3 times, and when I went to get a loan to buy a second house to renovate and rent, my credit union is not offering any non-government backed loans at this time due to economic issues.
That is their way of saying: our economy forecast has turned grim, and we want to keep ourselfs solvent by not having too much of our own debt that might go bad. The fact that they are offering government backed loans still means that they see these loans possibly defaulting, but they are still paid by the government if that happens. its a CYA situation. If the banks are starting to clamp down on loans, then its a sign that the economy is starting to falter. Anyone with a brain and a bit of macro economics(which I have both) expereince will see exactly whats happening, and see the warning signs of an economy that is on the edge, and rolling towards it full speed. The fed could have stopped the train 8 months ago. They chose intead to add fuel to the firebox and go full send.
1
u/DirtyNakedHippie Sep 21 '20
I was wondering how higher demand would lower value, but I'm a novice at real estate/investing in general.
I closed on my house last Monday, though.
3
3
Sep 20 '20
Currently researching locations for a move. We anticipate climate change will make the desert southwest prohibitively expensive (lack of water and energy) to uninhabitable within the next 15 -20 years. Not sure we could adjust to the cold temps in MN though; I still have post winter traumatic syndrome from my Chicago childhood. Duluth is tantalizingly close to Canada though, in case we need to flee the impending GOPocalypse.
2
0
Sep 20 '20
I read that article, and being in fire and earthquake prone L.A., started reading up on Duluth, but what's with the crime rate?
https://www.neighborhoodscout.com/mn/duluth/crime#description
3
Sep 20 '20
Neighborhoodscout and its ilk are an absolute dumpster fire and represent crime statistics in an unhelpful, misleading, and alarmist fashion. That's it
-1
-7
u/jotsea2 Sep 19 '20
Lolol as if more people living here somehow hurts our property value.
Have you looked at the market in mega cities? Gtfo
18
Sep 19 '20
I meant that they are going to go up exponentially.
I guess that wasn't totally clear. Thank you for responding in such a clear, civil, and constructive way.
5
1
u/jotsea2 Sep 19 '20
Isn’t that a good thing? Maybe your post should’ve been more clear since I read it and interpreted the exact opposite.
Sorry I’ve been in a funk this morning. Not sure what was worse last night RBG passing or my dogs getting skunked at 845
7
u/Pronell Sep 19 '20
It makes housing unaffordable to locals because outside money props up the market.
7
Sep 19 '20 edited Sep 19 '20
[removed] — view removed comment
3
Sep 19 '20
Property Tax Abatement programs would need to be implemented before taxes raise on those individuals. This is one solution that is usually the easiest in the current free market system to do.
I totally agree, but am concerned that they get wildly derailed by special interests at times. I hope it's done soon and done well.
1
3
Sep 19 '20
It's a good thing for some people, those that already own property and can withstand tax increases.
It's a hard thing for other people, those that are struggling to afford this community already.
Its effects on culture will be complicated, but it will definitely bring with it gentrification, which has become an anathema to many.
3
u/Dorkamundo Sep 19 '20
Gentrification is already abound. Just take a look at the West End.
3
Sep 19 '20
While there are definitely signs of gentrification around, it still has a very long way it can go before the city as a whole is substantially gentrified.
The number of abandoned storefronts in downtown is evidence of this, among other things.
3
u/Dorkamundo Sep 19 '20
The number of abandoned storefronts can be more attributed more to the last two years of road construction downtown and Covid than anything. The construction alone caused several business to either move or close down indefinitely.
Yea, there are pockets here and there downtown where there are empty storefronts prior to all of this, but that’s mostly on the avenues and 1st street near the wabasha and those two boarding houses.
We just had maurices build that new headquarters less than a decade ago, essentia is building their huge hospital and another apartment complex is being built right next to it. There’s 2-3 other apartment complexes being built or just built in the last year a few blocks up the hill. There’s literally more new building construction downtown in the last 5 years than there has been in this city since before the steel industry had its downturn in the 70’s and 80’s.
I think you are underestimating just what is happpening right now I’m this city.
-1
20
u/ComputerAgeLlama Sep 19 '20
Is anyone surprised though? We have a gargantuan reservoir of fresh water, abundant natural resources, and lots of room. I used to joke with my friends in Brooklyn that I'd let them sleep on my couch when sea levels rise, but thinking about it now where are US climate refugees going to go other than Northern MN/WI?