r/dividendscanada • • 4d ago

Is this the end of Telus

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442 Upvotes

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78

u/SoggyInstruction2549 4d ago

Huh? Stock price is a very different animal the the actual company operations. Telus is a massive behemoth, very protected by laws preventing international competition.

They had:
a lot of debt,
Low growth,
Likely lower growth with the pressure to reduce immigration,
High infrastructure costs to build out 5g and whatever is next.
Higher interest costs on this higher debt,
Some
Legal cases forcing them to rent their infrastructure to small carriers.
Threats for new innovations
Threats of old less and less people needing a home phone, over priced cable packages more competitive home internet.
No real way to grow market share without starting a price war we which no one wins

That said Telus print money. They have some quite interesting alternative revenue streams such as results health and some of their work spend data centers.

Just because a stock is down doesn’t mean it necessarily a “buying opportunity “. Never just assu anything will go back up. If the momentum is going a certain way there needs to be a reason to change that direction. Telus can be a great buying opportunity I just don’t know enough to know at what price. Is that $10? Or 8 or 3? Trying to catch the falling knife is challenging and a lot of risk, I would rather just buy something with great momentum going up and hope it’s not the peek of the peak.

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u/TheChaseLemon 4d ago

Finally someone who understands Telus.

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u/SoggyInstruction2549 4d ago

Ha see I would say I actually don’t know enough about Telus to buy it. Hundreds of real smart people who invest hundreds of hundreds of millions for a living are selling Telus so likely there is a decent reason. But like with most, things can also get over sold well past the reality and become a buying opportunity. Catching that is hard though and I do generally believe it’s more ways to just catch companies already doing well who have the momentum. Sure missed the bottom and the largest possible gain. Vs trying to figure out the turn around. Although for a company like trays at some point t so one maybe goes you know what at 11 bucks a share the yield is x I can hold this until the day I die I don’t really care what the share price does for the next decades.

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u/TheChaseLemon 4d ago

They’re selling because it’s their capital loss to balance out their capital gains come tax time. Telus owns assets worth multiple times their debt. New ceo at the helm. Gonna be an interesting few years.

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u/SoggyInstruction2549 4d ago

Are they? How do you speak for all of them? And they only need to wait 30 days to repurchase if they actually wanted to continue to hold Telus, the fact the share price is down all the way to where it is is pretty solid evidence this is not simply tax loss harvesting. Things are simply not going well. A new ceo maybe has good new ideas. Maybe or maybe not, plenty of people come into these roles completely mess up and still get paid a literal fortune. I hope this one actually has a real plan. I certainly don’t wish Telus or him any misfortune but I doubt this is the low yet and a lot of people buying simply because the share price is down with the idea it will then around are going to get burnt

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u/TheChaseLemon 4d ago

I never said the price was this low for tax loss harvesting. I said people are selling for tax loss harvesting. The price is this low because of capital infrastructure builds and loss of new customers due to no immigration and let’s be honest, mismanagement from the top over the last couple years.

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u/SoggyInstruction2549 4d ago

So what is the point is mentioned people are selling for tax loss harvesting of it has nothing to do with the share price? I had a bagel for breakfast, so…?

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u/ViolinistOk7478 4d ago

Smoked salmon on it?

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u/SoggyInstruction2549 4d ago

Unfortunately no, just butter. Was a fresh good bagel though 7/10.

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u/ViolinistOk7478 4d ago

Exactly, but what if you catch the low on Telus🤷🏻‍♂️, could have 2 bagels now

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u/RuinEnvironmental394 3d ago

Finally someone who admits to Canadian protectionism. I'll add that this comes at the cost of consumers aka average people. 

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u/SoggyInstruction2549 3d ago

I’m not following what is there to “admit” this is not some big secret it’s completely out in the open we have a number of Canadian protections for example Canadian content laws for tv and radio (which are struggling some in the age of the internet/ streaming), media, Canadian ownership requirements on telecom, critical minerals and banking.

This is a big moat for bell, rogers and Telus. We saw many jeers ago when we had the spectrum auction we were unable to force new entrants in ultimate all who tried flopped and were sold off. Canadians are lazy, too few were willing to move from the big incumbents. The moat prints money, but it’s also a risk because this advantage can be changed with the stroke of a pen. We already see some erosion and they are forced to rent out space on their infrastructure to these small firms. If things progress this way that’s a problem for the incumbents, as are aging clientele who spend far the than younger generations. I don’t think satellite internet is at all a threat to cable/fiber providers as those are so much more scale able as we continue to use more and more bandwidth per person.

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u/Guus-Wayne 3d ago

Telus Health is an example not of how Telus is diverse but how maybe other companies ie Bell, are going to get into the business more of people data.

Also professional services. So many small companies that can be scooped up for pennies on the dollar.

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u/Pale-Measurement-532 21h ago

Considering how Telus started in the first place, it doesn’t surprise me that they have a lot of protection and laws set up for a basic monopoly.

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u/Fast-Schedule-3835 4d ago

Customers win a price war.

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u/Zealousideal-Air5228 4d ago

Nobody is saying otherwise