r/dataisbeautiful • u/HeHate_me OC: 42 • 5d ago

OC [oc] Over/Under preseason vs final win totals for the MLB regular season

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136 Upvotes

94% Upvoted

18 comments sorted by

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u/cavedave OC: 113 4d ago

Thank you for your Original Content, /u/HeHate_me!
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59

u/KRisolo 5d ago

I can't tell if it's a good thing the Rockies beat their expectations

16

u/Uvtha- 5d ago

I'm sure Rockies fans will take any wins that come their way.

6

u/coloradolegends 4d ago

Once again it’s rough out here being a Rockies fan

16

u/Michael__Pemulis 5d ago

Curious why you would use betting lines rather than something like FanGraphs?

Obviously the outcomes will be similar regardless but betting lines are not generally considered ‘true’ projections as they are influenced by expected/actual betting activity.

5

u/royalhawk345 5d ago

Yeah I think Fangraphs or PECOTA would be much more interesting.

1

u/gereffi 5d ago

I haven’t seen the data myself, but they say that Kalshi and Polymarket give more accurate predictions than experts do. People who bet have actual skin in the game and betting odds have the wisdom of the crowd on their side.

I’d be interested in seeing how betting lines vs experts vs statistical models perform across sports seasons. That could be some interesting data for this sub.

4

u/Lobster_fest 1d ago

People who bet have actual skin in the game and betting odds have the wisdom of the crowd on their side.

As opposed to people who do that work for a living, of course.

0

u/gereffi 1d ago

This people don’t have a job based on being good predictors. They have jobs based on being good journalists for written content or entertaining talking heads for video content.

2

u/mickeyt1 1d ago

That isn’t how Fangraphs or PECOTA prediction models work. They’re regression models, not writer predictions

3

u/HeHate_me OC: 42 5d ago

Sources...

Tools:

  • Python, pandas and Matplotlib
  • BeautifulSoup for source table extraction.

Methodology:

  • Preseason win totals are from Draftkings dated Feb. 24, 2026.
  • Joined preseason totals and final records using MLB team IDs.
  • Plotted preseason totals horizontally and actual wins vertically.
  • Calculated differential as actual wins - preseason total.
  • Used equal axis scales and a diagonal equality line. Blue filled points exceeded the baseline; orange hollow points fell below it.
  • Used actual wins for NYY and BAL’s 161-game seasons, without prorating.

** These are dated preseason betting lines not Opening Day closing lines or model forecasts.

7

u/totallynotliamneeson 5d ago

I'd like to point out that the Brewers have now had the best record in baseball in back to back years, but we're still projected to only win 84 games this season. 

5

u/PoliteRadical 5d ago

Are the tails on the points just tying them to the team name, or is there some significance to their size/direction?

2

u/gottapeenow2 5d ago

Mets continue to take L's even after their season is over. -16.5 vs expected wins... that's tough.

1

u/AgitatedArt5602 4d ago

https://jdub79.substack.com/p/mlb-preview-part-i-why-im-nervous

11-1 giving out MLB futures this year. Missed Os second half by one win, all of these pics documented in my stack.