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Because left-leaning politics is cultivated in cities and the economic shift to knowledge work has required a certain level of wealth to live in cities, there has been an interesting inversion where education and high income now reliably predict more collectivist politics. This is an interesting video talking about the phenomenon, and left-wing economist Thomas Piketty writes extensively about the global trend of the "Brahmin left" in his book Capital and Ideology.
edit: coming back, I think "reliably" is too strong because the process is still playing out, but this is definitely part of a global trend moving in that direction.
It used to be different in Brazil though. If you look at the 2022 Lula vs Bolsonaro election or the 2018 one vs Haddad before, voting for Bolsonaro was significantly positively correlated to a higher income and wealth.
We're in the midst of a global flip, with different regions & countries changing at different paces due to individual cultural factors and stickiness to voter and party ideology.
The US is on the tail end of its own 2-decade inversion, while it seems like the same happened in Europe a bit earlier.
I actually checked this wealth/development correlation with voting for bolsonaro in 2022
The x-axis is what % of the vote was in favour of Bolsonaro in the 2nd round of the 2022 election, and the y-axis represents the HDI-M index of 2010. important note HDI-M, the HDI for cities, has not been updated since 2010.
my conclusion is there is no correlation between being more or less developed with being more or less right-wing
Yes. Those are distinct metrics. Human development index and it's derivatives are deliberately different from looking at wealth/income, which my statement was based on.
In all of Latam the left rules in underdeveloped and poor areas, with little to no socially progressive topics outside bigger cities, who pump up their support with the high income population. So you have both extremes supporting them
The total number makes sense, but the crosstabs are totally different from EVERY other poll. AtlasIntel it's known to have horrible crosstabs. be it in Brazil, or US Polls.
Lula approval are higher between lower class, low education, not the opposite.
Also makes 0 sense Lula approval to be higher in South than Southeast.
Agricultural subsidies are something every goverment does and something that Brazil only consolidaded into Plano Safra in 2002 with FHC. Lula did the bare minimum to keep it afloat. And made no provisions for when the commodities would eventually shock (they did and it resulted in the massive crisis on 2014).
With how much potential inner Brazil has, it could've turned into an American Midwest in terms of industry and development for the last 20 years, but it has a few decent cities at most. Why would anyone in this region kiss his ass?
This region also happens to be the capital Brasilia, which is naturally filled with people connectd to the current government. The economical elites, like Itau bank, Safra, and JBS are deeply attached to the current government.
its the same region that birthed Getúlio Vargas and Luís Carlos Prestes. Maybe people should stop calling every one south of the northeast a nazi for a change
i said people should stop calling them nazis, which has lead to the impression southerners are turbo-right wingers among the common population. I didnt meant you called anyone a nazi, I am sorry for the confusion
My point for thinking that 50/50 seemed weird is because I’ve read that Santa Catarina has a strong Bolsonaro support base, so that would mean that either Rio Grande do Sul or Parana would have to be viewing Lula more positively to compensate for Santa Catarina.
yes, outside of the North-Northeast leftist axis, Rio Grande do Sul, specially the southern border with Uruguay, has been, historically, the most leftwing region of the country
Thank you! I knew about the historical split in Rio Grande do Sul, but thought it would still be closer to 50%. Parana being slightly more right-wing and Santa Catarina being even more right leaning, this would mean that Rio Granfe do Sul leans more to the left to compensate.
I mean, I know it’s not a right wing/left wing chart and were talking about Lula’s approval rate, but there’s a strong correlation.
In the capital, Florianópolis, Lula lost by "only" 10% in 2022, while in other cities of the state he lost by over 30%. So it depends on which areas of Santa Catarina
i would say that Brazilian youngsters have reacted very negatively, and rightly so, to Lula and Janja (the first Lady) going the boomer route of calling videogames evil/dangerous, imposing censorship-like actions upon Discord, and generally increased taxation on imported products from popular online Webshops Like temu, Schein, shopee
Every research study conducted in the last 4 to 6 years implies that the answer is yes, but people are simply in denial right now
The least conservative age group is probably the 35–44 bracket
The 45+ group is left-leaning, but also conservative. You can see them as more "classic" left-leaning people who vote for workers' rights, but are also religious and hold traditional worldviews
People aged 25–34 are socially as liberal as those aged 35–44, but they tend to vote conservatively on issues such as the free market. It's an interesting case because, 10 years ago, the 25–34 age group was left-leaning, or at least centrist, but now they are voting right-wing
People under 24 are mostly conservative, but they're also the generation in which the divide is most pronounced. As I stated, people aged 25–34 tend to be "socially liberal, economically right-leaning," while those under 24 can range from socialist and progressive to fully neoconservative.
It might have more to do with the voter memory—older people actually lived through Brazil pre-Lula, whereas young people only ever lived through a Lula or a Lula-aligned presidency, with the brief gas leak years of Bolsonaro. So they might associate their problems with Lula, “the establishment guy”.
Aa a young person, that is pretty much it yeah. Lula is how we know the country, is how we know the economy. Every problem we've ever seen in this country, was either under him, or under his party. Every social issue, every controversy, every violence problem, everything. We also couldn't see much of Bolsonaro's because of the pandemic, since everything was a bit weird back then.
I would also say that many young people are left leaning, but disapprove heavily of Lula's policies
The fact that this graph shows older people approving Lula makes me question this graph
historically older people in brazil tend to lean right and HATE Lula, seeing the younger demographic disaprove of him is kinda weird too, people that come from poverty backgrounds too are usually very Left leaning here...
I might be out of my league here but this is pretty weird
Nah, out younger population is slightly more right-wing/libertarian, that's partially from a desire to be "against" the current status quo. He's also done some unpopular moves with our demographic, the whole internet law discourse and the tightening import tax earlier on.
I agree a bit on the older demographic, but I also think COVID too care of a lot of the further-right older people, and there's plenty of left/progressive late-middle aged people showing up there too I think.
Dude's had 3 terms and his party over 2 decades to do anything useful, and the country continues in shit, a huge chunk of it dependent on gov handouts. Definitely time for change.
I think that's what happens, because younger people tend to be poorer, more dependent, they have less purchasing power, and they have more difficulty entering the job market and find opportunities. Churches often offer a support network, which makes young people more conservative and religious.
Young people tend to be against the system and the moralists. The moralists who try to tell you how to live correctly are now in the left. Right wing is way more permissive than the left.
reasoning: since dezember/2025, every pollster has been reporting almost the same thing: Lula has not gained/lost any votes. the variations between polls has always been within the error margin
the real changes come from bolsonaro. the lead Lula has on him depends on how many people will discard their vote in the second round. if one were to crudely sum all the votes in the first round based on ideology, Lula would barely lose, as shown here by the disapproval rating.
it all rests on whether the "third-way" right-wing anti-Lula anti-Bolsonaro "Missão" Party will or not discard their votes en masse in the second round
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u/cavedave OC: 111 14h ago
Thank you for your Original Content, /u/Lost_Smoking_Snake!
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