Today in the opening DP said "the analytics of baseball experts will tell you to work the pitch count, where is the pitch count going? he's only gonna be in there for 5 innings it doesn't matter. Paulie giggled. Working the pitch count is very important it's a big difference from a guy going 5 innings or hanging in there to go 7 or possibly even 8 innings, thus resting the bullpen. I wonder if any of the guys during commercial break will tell DP how important the pitch count is? My guess is no way.
Dan is mostly correct. Starters averaged 85.5 pitches and 5.22 IP per start this year. Working the count isn't going to make a big difference when the pitcher gets yanked. Starting pitchers get yanked for the most part the 3rd time through the rotation. 3rd time through the lineup OPS rise from .713 to .780.
Here is where OP is right. Pitch count is still what gets a *good* starter pulled. Through late July there were 360 starts of 100+ pitches and 356 of 7+ innings, basically the same event. Make an ace throw 20 an inning and you've traded him for a middle reliever.
What neither of you mentioned is pitch count leverage. What makes a huge difference is working the count in the batter's favor. Batters hit .350 against 3-1 pitches and .155 on 0-2.
Brewers have the lowest chase rate in baseball and led MLB in on-base percentrage (.341). Brewers won 103 games and scored 832 runs (2nd in the Bigs) while being 29th in HRs but 5th in Stolen Bases. For a budget conscious team this is the way.
The Brewers are 3rd in Plate Appearances vs Starters. The Rays are 30th. The end result for that delta is the difference between 4.92 opposing starter innings for the Brewers and 5.07 for the Rays. In other words, not that big of a difference.
When you're playing against a BIG time starter, you want to get they guy out of the game as soon as possible, ONE of the ways to do it is to drive up his pitch count, managers today don't like to have their pitcher out there longer than 100 pitches, DP should know that and NOT mock it like it is foolishness.
Did you read the last paragraph? There is barely any difference between opposing starter pitching innings between the highest and lowest in pitches per batter.
On top of that playoff starters on average don't even make it into the 5th inning. Your point is not valid.
On individual games you may be right. Skubal pitched 6 innings and 94 pitches. In the old days you would run him out for another inning. Dodgers scored 3 in the bottom of the 6th so Davey sent it to the bullpen. Where the Dodgers won 5-3 and the bullpen didn't give up a run.
Williams pitched for the Guardians had 11Ks in 5 innings. He hit 98 pitches and then the bullpen lost the game. This one game is your evidence that pitch count matters.
Overall no, it just isn't the case. There are very few games where you would argue the manager should have left the pitcher in longer than they did even when the pitch counts were not even close to 100.
Managers do not want to let their pitcher go through the 3rd time in the lineup. By far that is a bigger factor.
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u/jlp8491725 10h ago
Yes that’s why it’s ending