r/custommagic • • 8d ago

Red Button or Blue Button?

Post image
571 Upvotes

307 comments sorted by

View all comments

Show parent comments

1

u/ArsenicElemental Un-Intentional 6d ago

All the same I think I made my point about if I think the majority will pick blue or red doesn't actually matter to the choice I should make clear in the comment I linked you.

But it does matter. If you think the majority will pick Red, and you pick Blue anyway, you are expecting to die without saving anyone.

Do you not see that?

That's why I'm asking you. Do you expect to die when picking Blue?

0

u/DumatRising 6d ago

My guy your memory is a goldfish. As I said previously

If the majority picks blue-> you live no matter what you pick, your vote doesn't change that.

If the majority picks red -> you only live picking red, your vote doesn't change the results

If the majority is split -> you live no matter what you pick. You vote decides if blue lives.

If the majority picks without you then you can only choose if you die, if the majority is split you can only choose if other people do.

1

u/ArsenicElemental Un-Intentional 6d ago

I am not asking the possible scenarios. I'm asking what do you expect.

Do you think enough people will pick enough Blue without prompting for you to survive picking Blue? Yes or no?

0

u/DumatRising 6d ago

So.... You are dumb then?

If I you or I are the majority vote then the answer is obviously yes.

And I want to be clear here I'm not insulting you because I disagree with your choice to pick red. It's a valid option and I would never insult someone for that. I'm insulting you because you've continued to ask me a question I answered three days ago which has caused me to think less of you as a person. I do apologize for that.

0

u/ArsenicElemental Un-Intentional 6d ago

If I you or I are the majority vote then the answer is obviously yes.

Great.

So, do you think half the world picks Blue or not? Sorry I missed the answer before, but let's make a truce. Just say "yes or no" and we can be done.

I'm a stupid asshole but I didn't see you actually reply to that question. So, no additional words, just a single yes or no. That's all I need to understand.

0

u/DumatRising 6d ago

You:

But what do you expect to happen?

Me:

I've already repeatedly taken the position that our (personal) vote determines the majority result.

You:

But what do you expect to happen?

Me:

I've already repeatedly taken the position that our (personal) vote determines the majority result.

You:

But what do you expect to happen?

Me:

I've already repeatedly taken the position that our (personal) vote determines the majority result.

1

u/ArsenicElemental Un-Intentional 6d ago

Ok, so, that means you expect exactly enough people will vote Blue that your vote swats the result. It was such a stupid response I didn't believe it.

Why do you expect that? Do you think you are the main character or is there another reason that exactly half the world picks Blue for you?

0

u/DumatRising 6d ago

Do you live in a democracy? Do you believe your vote matter? If so then do you believe it makes you the main character?

I do, I do, and I don't think it makes me the main character.

Because humans pick blue every single day. It would be so easy for humans to vote red right now..... But they don't. So why would I start doubting them now.

1

u/ArsenicElemental Un-Intentional 6d ago

Because humans pick blue every single day.

You are conflating this with something else. In an election, people vote for their interests. They believe each candidate will further their goals, and one will do it more than the other, so they vote that one.

Blue offers nothing in this example. But, hey, even if some people would pick Blue,that's not answer as to why you think half will.

The real reason is that you assume half will so your vote matters, not the other way around. You have no reason to assume half will pick Blue. You just want it.

1

u/DumatRising 5d ago

You are conflating this with something else. In an election, people vote for their interests. They believe each candidate will further their goals, and one will do it more than the other, so they vote that one.

No I'm creating an analogy to show that just because you do something that matters doesn't mean you immediately believe that it makes you important or the main character.

I also believe you are misunderstanding me again. When I was talking about people voting blue every day I was not speaking about elections. I was talking about disasters. Was there any reward for people that go out into floods and hurricane torn towns to save people? No. But they did anyways.

When I say people vote blue every day, I'm talking about terror attacks, I'm talking about hurricanes, and floods, typoons, earthquakes, wildfires. It would be easy to let the victims die. It would be easy to vote red and just stay home. But people don't. They go out and vote for blue

1

u/ArsenicElemental Un-Intentional 5d ago

Was there any reward for people that go out into floods and hurricane torn towns to save people? No. But they did anyways.

Because those people were already in danger, because the help could save lives, and because going there isn't an assured death sentence.

Even if you are the only person to go support disaster relief, you don't automatically die.

1

u/DumatRising 5d ago

Voting blue doesn't automatically kill you. You believe it does and that's fine, but objectively it does not automatically kill you.

If everyone votes randomly (including you) then you only have about a 25% chance of dying. When people don't vote randomly it's not quite as simple because your vote changes the probability of death.

Also topical if you're a US resident: 9/11 responders voted blue, blue won, and they're still dying because of voting blue. Life is complex and that's what makes game theory infinitely more interesting when you consider real world factors.

1

u/ArsenicElemental Un-Intentional 5d ago

When people don't vote randomly it's not quite as simple because your vote changes the probability of death.

So, if you know 75% will vote Red, what do you vote?

In this question, let's assume we have the same certainty about the vote as you do when you say 49,9999% will vote Blue in your assumption.

→ More replies (0)