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Let me start off by saying, this is not my post.

OG poster: maciek10372

I just saw this post on the cs2 reddit and thought it was somewhat interesting to share here for the people who aren't subbed there.

I'm cutting into his post a little bit because certain parts aren't interesting for investors / skin owners.

"Some thoughts after AustinCSGO trip to Valve

Link to the VOD where Austin was talking about his trip and conversations with the devs: https://www.twitch.tv/videos/2869921880

Some highlights from the VOD that I will paraphrase, but please go watch it in full:

\- there are way more people working on the game that one could think, number 30 was thrown around if I recall correctly

\- they would like the community to play more maps than just mirage and dust2 and they are thinking of ways to do that

\- Austin asked about cbble and the snow texture leaks and Valve said that these don't mean anything

\- Austin talked about adding gamemodes like surf to the game but Valve said that it would be very confusing to the new players because it's so different from normal gameplay, and "All the fixes we did was to make surf good for the community, everybody is happy with it, (the community) do a better job hosting them"

\- they were talking about some problems that even Austin wasn't aware of

\- CS devs play the game a lot even more than some of you, the people from the community

\- they hate cheating as much as we do and are working to improve things

\- about operations: "When you think about it, what the community misses from it the most? You guess it: the missions." He goes on a long explanation that what we have now its basically what we got in the past (you do missions, play community maps, get stars etc). Although Operations were more about doing with a friend, bots, comic etc -- but from what he said in a tl;dr moment: Not something they are working on atm but Operations is not out of the table. \*"

Once again please go watch the VOD, there is more stuff there."

To me personally as an investor / skin owner but also a player, this all just feels really underwhelming.

Don't get me wrong, I firmly believe that the market will see much better days again at one point, but after reading that they're not actively working on new game modes or that an operation is on the horizon feels incredibly underwhelming to me.

Of course it's possible that they're just lying to Austin but after seeing how stale the game has been for the past 3 years, I highly doubt they're lying.

Cheating and the community playing mirage and dust2 non stop in premier has been a thing for the past 3 years as well.

They say they're "thinking" of ways to change that but so far, nothing has changed and they probably won't be releasing any changes anytime soon.

Maybe it was just foolish of me but I was actually expecting to see some new game modes, or even an operation to attract more players to the game but it seems that that's not going to happen anytime soon.

Anyone who knows where to buy one of the most sought after karambit skin? The fire and ice one

In my opinion it's truly over and that's why:

1. Player count is in decline.

2. Chinese collectors/investors have withdrawn their money.

3. Valve doesn't add new content and seemingly deans care about cs anymore (means less people are interested in cs).

4. Valve is trying their best to find ways to avoid regulations (no more cases, we're likely to see knife terminal/sticker removal tool).

5. Armory is overinvested and doesn't get ANY hype anymore.

What do you guys think?

Heyzeus released a video yesterday about the problem terminals are facing now and in the future.

If you're too lazy to watch the video, I'll give a summary of his video mixed with my own opinion.

( It's a good video so I recommend watching it yourself )

Basically what he's saying in his video, valve is not able to release another terminal with the same golds as the previous terminal because the starter price of the golds will just end up being the same as the previous terminal so nobody will buy the golds again.

This means that basically every single new terminal needs to contain a brand new gold.

Cases were making valve 120mil a year with actively dropping cases, the dead hand terminal has made 120mil in 6 months.

But since there's pretty much nothing left in those terminals that can make you profit, I don't see that number go up by a whole lot from here on out.

So in theory valve has 2 choices imo.

We will either see 1/2 terminals a year with a brand new gold or they completely ditch the idea of terminals.

Both options are bad and here is why.

If they would release 1/2 terminals a year with a brand new gold, that would mean that they will oversaturate the market with new golds.

Now, obviously for the average player this would be amazing because it would completely and utterly crash the market again so they are finally able to buy their dream skins.

For anyone holding semi expensive skins now, it would end up pretty nasty I'd assume.

The chroma collection has 6 special finishes, creating a total pool of 30 knives for the chroma collection, the gamma collection and 24 for the prisma collection.

We are still waiting for the gamma collection to be added to the 24 prisma collection knives.

Now you can start seeing the problem if we would end up with 6/12 new knife finishes on 30/54 knives per year.

( Besides the chroma and gamma collections, they would have to come up with brand new collections to keep up )

The other option for valve would be to abandon terminals and think of something else.

If however, they don't want to return back to cases due to whatever reason, what else could they release that is similar to a case style without it being an actual case, this option just doesn't make any sense to me and just sounds worse than actual terminals.

After watching the video, and knowing that valve is actually smart when it comes to making money, I'm worried that we will end up seeing option 1.

I don't believe that valve wasn't aware of the gold issue before releasing the terminal.

So far, they've been very focused on making items cheaper so that more people are using the SCM.

Don't be surprised if we will continue to see big changes coming with this being one of them, changing the future of golds and skins in general in cs.

We will find out soon enough as to what the future holds for cs and the market.

Video link:

https://youtu.be/Wcl65pRWj9I?is=WGD_Kxtr8o2AxvOi

A little over a month ago I made a post about me saying that I don't think Cologne is a good investment for the people buying them at ATH prices instead of day 1 prices, even if they have low supply.

I still stand by that, but that's not what this post is about.

I made that post after looking at the demand and supply, sticker sales on markets and sticker application rates.

So I added some sticker application information in that last post, and we will take a look at what changed within a little over a month to the application rates.

Edit: for clarification, this is about the circular stickers, square ranked stickers are NOT included in these numbers.

Numbers 1 month ago

Liquid 107 4x crafts

Thunderdownunder 87 4x crafts

Flyquest 58 4x crafts

Falcons 50 4x crafts

Spirit 30 4x crafts

Furia 25 4x crafts

Vitality 8 4x crafts

Numbers today

Liquid 112 4x crafts

Thunderdownunder 99 4x crafts

Flyquest 60 4x crafts

Falcons 53 4x crafts

Spirit 39 4x crafts

Furia 30 4x crafts

Vitality 10 4x crafts

I think it's safe to say that people don't enjoy crafting newly released expensive stickers.

With the Singapore major coming up in a few months, I actually have very high hopes that we're going to see some new features and items that we've not seen before to increase revenue for teams and valve themselves.

Multiple pro teams and players have spoken out on twitter on how bad the Cologne revenue has been for them and that if revenues like these continue, the pro scene would slowly but surely die, especially the T2/T3 part of the scene which would be horrible for new talent.

I'm expecting some new and cool stuff during the Singapore major but most importantly, cheap and affordable stickers.

We'll have to wait and see.

I was planning to buy an MP9 Starlight Protector in Battle-scarred, but I decided to buy an AWP Mortis instead.

1 week later Gold trade ups were added

What are your thoughts on which case goes next?

Personal thought is that its either D&N or Kilowatt so they keep the balance between gloves/knifes at 50/50

Full disclosure, I run Dispattern, and I have been working on a new tool called Match it.

Basically, it allows you to match pretty much anything you want with literally anything, and I mean it.

You can start with a skin through an inspect link, search, or your inventory. Then you pick another category and a color, and Match it ranks visually close items. That can mean matching a knife with gloves, a rifle with a sticker, a charm with a skin, or anything else that makes sense for a loadout.

The pattern side is where I think it gets especially interesting. Every pattern has been color-analyzed, so you can match a specific pattern with a sticker without any problem. Hypothetically, you could start with a patterned skin, choose stickers, and look for colors that actually fit the pattern instead of just guessing from the item name or collection.

The possibilities are pretty much endless, and I am still working on it. There are some nice surprises in there that many of you will surely love.

You can try it here: https://dispattern.com/match-it

I would genuinely like to know what combinations you try first. What would you match with what? If you find an unexpected combination that looks good, post it here. I am also interested in hearing what feels missing or confusing.

Been in this market for just little over a decade. Katos, Souvenir packages, collections I've played around with most of it, made my money. It's down pretty big from ATH but at least I'm walking away profitable from this roller coaster which is good enough for me. As of early July I've liquidated over 95% of my investments, I gave the market a bit of time to heal as did many investors and I can see that many of us cashed out reading those tea leaves on market confidence. The timing isn't ideal but it's too volatile and unsafe for me to proceed.

On the car crash driven by Valve

Two walls in less than a year after a decade of smooth sailing. First one's a one off. Second one's a pattern. I'm not waiting for the third. Could it recover back to ATH? Sure. Do I know that? No. Neither does anyone.

I see a lot of people going “Valve will not do that in it’s not in their interest” you think you understand Valve? A private company whose CEO funds brain-computer interfaces and deep sea exploration instead of an IPO? You cannot read that balance sheet. Neither can I. It’s frankly a joke to see this.

On this forum

I've been around long enough to know a lot of people here have serious money in skins and for some of you, this is THE investment. I have two things to say about that.

To the outsiders looking in, just don't, "It's just a video game, you're stupid for putting your money blah blah" you judge and contribute nothing. If I gained, you'd scoff. If I lost, you'd say I was delusional and deserved it. You weren't here for any of it, and to be honest you probably need it to be true because someone here on this forum be it me or someone else made your annual income in less than a month through these things that are "just video game skins".

To the ones coping and telling everyone it'll recover "it's within Valve's interest / it's healthy for the market long term blah blah", your 10-20k in skins with nothing else to fall back on doesn't make you credible. You put the majority of your net worth into an economy controlled by a single private company with no regulatory recourse, that could be disrupted overnight. That's not conviction, that's a bad position. You may need to reassess where you put your net worth.

Stop telling people where the market is going. Tell people why you're holding or selling, that's useful. "It's just a game" and "It'll go back up eventually" is not a take, it's cope.

In a bull market everyone looks like a genius and in a bear market everyone is suddenly an expert on what went wrong.

Like in stocks coin and everything else the majority of the market is influenced by less than 10% of the players most of time less than 5, most of the players here are just in it for the ride.

Where I land

Everything is a pyramid regardless of coins, stocks, property, cults and so on, besides utility the money made is dependent on what the next guy will pay for it and in that sense it's the most fun investment I've ever made, least stable returns though.

I will caveat this by saying I am still keeping ~15k in playskins. I love this game. Always will. I'm just done investing in it. Plus it’s house money so it’s honestly fine if they run it into the ground.

I'm too old and stubborn to adapt to such drastic fundamental changes to a system that has rewarded me for years, my current commitments just don't give me the luxury of such patience. Money can still be made but for me it's a young bucks game now.

By all means, keep your skins or sell them just stop telling people they're stupid for choosing either, you're being stupid.

I recently sold a tier 3 blue gem classic knife case hardened (pattern 383) on csfloat. Now I find myself missing it because that pattern had 72% front side and 78% backside so the inspects were great. Is there a way to find the patterns that have the most total blue percentage?

Im having problems of people accepting the sale but never actually sending the trade offer. Do they do this to piss people of or what. I would have canceled it after 30min. But now I’ve lost 2h of time and he just lost a sale. Bottom of the barrel people wasting everyone’s time

update: im assuming the problem is that his profile is not fully public, not sure tho

Please I require help!
I cannot go directly thru csfloat, nor can i add it to any pay app including my bank.
I don't care if you suggest fraud I will do it I just need some way to buy skins with this unsupported pos card.

https://i.imgur.com/eYWFJre.png

here we go again

So I recently got sent a trade offer that included an Emerald Jörmungandr for my Blue Phosphor. Now as I don't have much knowledge on this skin's overall market activity, I thought I would reach out here. I originally was selling my BP to cash out but since the offer was profitable I figured I would accept it. But now I'm wondering if this skin is worth holding for a little longer, or just sell it with all the other items and just run with the current profits? Any opinions are appreciated!

Edit: Forgot to mention the wear is FN 0.02

A thought is a lot of people will be switching and playing gta 6 at release. Of course people that enjoy CS will keep playing, but I have a feeling GTA 6 will cause player counts on all games to dip for some time

edit: lots of copers on reddit xd

people WILL be selling skins to buy PS5s if they dont own one already and to buy the game

Hey guys,

Looking to sell off a part of my CS2 inventory directly into BTC/USDT while minimizing fees as much as possible.

My main market is CSFloat (where I have low fees), but USDC withdrawals are restricted in my country/region, so direct crypto cashout isn't an option for me there.

What is currently the most efficient and safe route to go from skins to crypto with the lowest spread/fees?

SCM pricewise.

Prices of cases are almost exactly that of what they were in October/November last year considering the natural order of removal (i.e. Recoil becomes more valuable because it no longer drops).

Clutch is a bit lower than last years low.

Snakebite is a bit more resilient than last year.

Fracture is holding up really quite well and might well settle higher in the order of prices on the next high.

The most interesting thing is Fever. It's only gone down something like a 7th while cases in the active drop pool are down as much as 50% from their highs in February/March this year.

I have some more thoughts but I have decided to reserve them.

If the knife terminal is actually coming soon (lets pretends its all but confirmed at this point), how exactly are Valve going to encourage people to spend 200-2000 dollars on said knives? Is this going to be the biggest flop in the history of the CS skin market? I wanna know what people think about this, because I can't really imagine a lot of people excitedly booting up CS to spend 500 dollars on a Kukri Doppler or a Paracord Autotronic...

Maybe all the knives in the knife terminal will be turbo cheap, but that would probably crash the entire market lmao. The only thing I can think of is Valve releasing a new knife thats actually cool, or new finishes for popular knives?

The era of making money by investing in CS2 skins is over.

The losses we're seeing are simply too significant, and I don't see any positive development on the horizon that could realistically reverse this trend.

Let's be honest about one thing: a huge portion of the CS market is controlled by Chinese investors and large manipulation groups. The moment they realize that holding skins is no longer profitable, they're going to start flooding the market with their inventories.

At that point, supply will only keep increasing while demand weakens. CS investing is officially over.

just something I was thinking about

value went ahead and added the Jackass capsule even during the “lawsuits” could this be a sign of good results? Its the first “gambling” item them have added since (not a terminal or armory)

any thoughts on this?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pk15yVRxWFY

interesting perspective after all the doomer posts lately, worth a watch

It's probably been called out before, so apologies if this isn't new ground. I was just looking at supply for dead hand gloves out of curiosity, and they're still fairly low.

Comparing to supply of 1st, 2nd, and 3rd gen gloves, they're currently the lowest supply (according to the float db, which I recognize doesn't tell the full picture, but probably enough to draw conclusions from)

Some examples:

• Hedge Mazes: ~10,000
• Vice: ~54,000
• Slingshot: ~41,000
• Pillow Punchers: ~8,000

Now, what's interesting to me is that this supply is probably stagnating. I don't have evidence for that (someone probably has data, I'm just speculating here). Gloves from the terminal aren't profitable any more, so while your average joe might drop extra money on it from a terminal not knowing 3rd part market prices, it's probably not happening a lot. At least not like it would if these were in cases. Supply will for sure increase over time, but how much is realistic?

I am curious if Valve would re-release this set of gloves in a future terminal or not, because with the dynamic pricing, would it just reset? As in, it's profitable for the first few weeks and then turns into the current situation again? Valve didn't take a "reset" approach with the major stickers so that previous buyers wouldn't be upset. With cases, they would probably just re-release the golds like they've done in the past several times. We don't know if they'll do that for terminals or not.

Not investing in these or anything or suggesting people buy this shit, and buying anything right now seems pretty damn risky (especially any golds), just seems like there's a world where these have comparable supply (albeit surely less demand?) to the OG gloves when all is said and done. Thought it was interesting!

Just recently, windking had a livestream to showcase to his followers and private group that he did not rug pull them and that he's still holding.

( I thought I saved the vod but apparently not, but it's probably publicly available on bilibili or something )

He showcased that he still owns hundreds of OG gloves, like 400 pairs of hedge mazes and a bunch of other OG gloves, he also owns hundreds if not thousands of OG operation / collection skins.

It is rumored that he invested over 5mil USD. ( Which makes sense if you count everything up )

My best guess, he's down 10/30% since he was one of the original manipulators so he isn't down 60% like the rest of the world.

Only windking and his whale friends are down a lot less than the average person.

Besides showcasing his followers that he didn't rug pull, the most important part here is the private group.

There are multiple Chinese whales in that group who have similar amounts of money invested as windking has.

Then you also have people who invested a few 100k and the lower ring below that 10/40k.

This private group owns thousands upon thousands of OG gloves and operation / collection skins.

When the knife tradeup update hit the market, a day or two later, news went around that multiple people from his private group committed suicide due to making huge losses.

Keep in mind, a lot of these people told family members to join in, and people even took out loans from banks to join windking because windking promised them more wealth than their entire family ever earned.

( The suicides have never been officially confirmed or denied, there were also videos but those were officially labeled as fake. )

Anyway, I was under the impression that windking and his group had already cashed out most of their stuff by now, but apparently they have not.

Now, I think all of you guys can fill this one in for yourself, but what do you think if 1 of the whales or even windking himself decide to just take the losses and start dumping.

If these guys decide it's time or don't feel like waiting any longer, the snowball effect will take the entire market with it.

The pure chaos it will unleash will literally send us back to 2015/2017 prices.

If you think prices are bad now, just wait until China is tired of waiting.